Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton closed a little lower on weaker export sales and a rally in the US Dollar. Speculators were on both sides of the market but net sellers. Harvest is mostly done amid drier weather conditions in West Texas and the Delta and Southeast. Ideas are that USDA can cut the production in its latest updates next week. The weekly export salez report was bad. Export demand has held strong despite stay at home orders and weaker economies around the world. Traders now hope for even more demand later as the vaccines are given out and the world economies start to recover.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures should average mostly below normal. Texas will have scattered showers this weekend, otherwise dry conditions and mostly below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 75.40 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 68,740 bales, from 69,527 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8370 March. Support is at 7800, 7720, and 7660 March, with resistance of 8100, 8130 and 8160 March.
DJ On-Call Cotton – Jan 7
As of Jan 1. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Mar 21 31,751 32,893 -1,142 9,761 8,998 763
May 21 21,049 20,922 127 3,641 3,517 124
Jul 21 30,237 30,079 158 6,542 6,524 18
Oct 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 21 12,743 12,133 610 12,135 11,649 486
Mar 22 2,738 2,958 -220 530 417 113
May 22 859 859 0 46 26 20
Jul 22 2,481 2,173 308 878 724 154
Dec 22 1,411 273 1,138 2,167 2,105 62
Jul 23 0 0 0 220 220 0
Dec 23 0 0 0 227 227 0
May 24 0 0 0 441 441 0
Total 103,269 102,290 979 36,588 34,848 1,740
Open Open Change
Mar 21 127,824 125,592 2,232
May 21 43,378 42,278 1,100
Jul 21 25,069 23,654 1,415
Oct 21 13 12 1
Dec 21 27,804 26,734 1,070
Mar 22 1,628 1,570 58
May 22 307 301 6
Jul 22 1,260 1,179 81
Dec 22 951 928 23
Jul 23 1 1 0
Dec 23 0 0 0
May 24 0 0 0
Total 228,235 222,249 5,986
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher yesterday in range trading. The weather in Florida remains good for the crops although it has been cold recently. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out. The weather in Florida is good with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Showers are falling in Brazil now and these need to continue to ensure good tree health. However, it could turn warm and dry again next week. Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains. The Florida Movement and Pack report showed that FCOJ inventories are 16% less than last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 121.00, 116.00, and 110.00 March, with resistance at 127.00, 128.00, and 129.00 March.
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and lower in London as rains falling in Brazil have been lighter than expected. Brazil has been dry for flowering and initial fruit development although conditions are improving now with showers. Most or all areas should be helped in the next week or two. Vietnam has harvested its production under mostly dry conditions. Central America is also drier for harvesting but producers there are holding and not offering. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.467 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 113.45 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 112.00 March. Support is at 120.00, 116.00, and 113.00 March, and resistance is at 125.00, 129.00 and 130.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1310 March. Support is at 1320, 1290, and 1260 March, and resistance is at 1360, 1380, and 1390 March.
General Comments: New York and London closed sharply lower as the US Dollar rallied and as some hoped for rains started to appear in Brazil. The world is now between sugarcane crops in Brazil. Southern Brazil and Bahia have been dry, but center south areas have gotten some showers and more are in the forecast. Bahia could get a few showers. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year. Mo exports are coming out of India yet. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease. Coronavirus has returned to the world and has caused some demand concerns, especially for Ethanol.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1560, 1510, and 1490 March, and resistance is at 1600, 1630, and 1660 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 421.00, 419.00, and 410.00 March, and resistance is at 436.00, 444.00, and 447.00 March.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher in recovery trading. Certified stocks continue to climb in New York after moving sharply lower about a month ago. Importers are still looking for ways to source Cocoa without paying a premium demanded by Ivory Coast and Ghana. Both countries have instituted a living wage for producers there and are looking to tax exports to pay the increased wages. Buyers have been accused of using certified stocks from the exchange instead of buying from origin. Origin has ample supplies to sell right now. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic. However, the grind has held amid good demand from chocolate manufacturers.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.122 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2440 and 2400 March. Support is at 2500, 2470, and 2440 March, with resistance at 2500, 2660, and 2670 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1660, 1620, and 1610 March, with resistance at 1720, 1750, and 1780 March.Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322