About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Cotton closed a little lower on weaker export sales and a rally in the US Dollar.  Speculators were on both sides of the market but net sellers.  Harvest is mostly done amid drier weather conditions in West Texas and the Delta and Southeast.  Ideas are that USDA can cut the production in its latest updates next week.  The weekly export salez report was bad.  Export demand has held strong despite stay at home orders and weaker economies around the world.  Traders now hope for even more demand later as the vaccines are given out and the world economies start to recover.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers this weekend.  Temperatures should average mostly below normal.  Texas will have scattered showers this weekend, otherwise dry conditions and mostly below normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 75.40 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 68,740 bales, from 69,527 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8370 March.  Support is at 7800, 7720, and 7660 March, with resistance of 8100, 8130 and 8160 March.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Jan 7 

As of Jan 1. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or

purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts

of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.

Source: CFTC

*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from

last week.

Call  Previous   Change       Call  Previous  Change

Sales                     Purchases

Mar 21       31,751    32,893   -1,142      9,761     8,998     763

May 21       21,049    20,922      127      3,641     3,517     124

Jul 21       30,237    30,079      158      6,542     6,524      18

Oct 21            0         0        0          0         0       0

Dec 21       12,743    12,133      610     12,135    11,649     486

Mar 22        2,738     2,958     -220        530       417     113

May 22          859       859        0         46        26      20

Jul 22        2,481     2,173      308        878       724     154

Dec 22        1,411       273    1,138      2,167     2,105      62

Jul 23            0         0        0        220       220       0

Dec 23            0         0        0        227       227       0

May 24            0         0        0        441       441       0

Total       103,269   102,290      979     36,588    34,848   1,740

Open      Open   Change

Int       Int

Mar 21      127,824   125,592    2,232

May 21       43,378    42,278    1,100

Jul 21       25,069    23,654    1,415

Oct 21           13        12        1

Dec 21       27,804    26,734    1,070

Mar 22        1,628     1,570       58

May 22          307       301        6

Jul 22        1,260     1,179       81

Dec 22          951       928       23

Jul 23            1         1        0

Dec 23            0         0        0

May 24            0         0        0

Total       228,235   222,249    5,986

 

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ closed a little higher yesterday in range trading.  The weather in Florida remains good for the crops although it has been cold recently.  The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home.  Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out.  The weather in Florida is good with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation.  Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used.  Showers are falling in Brazil now and these need to continue to ensure good tree health.  However, it could turn warm and dry again next week.  Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains.  The Florida Movement and Pack report showed that FCOJ inventories are 16% less than last year.

Overnight News:  Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.   ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 121.00, 116.00, and 110.00 March, with resistance at 127.00, 128.00, and 129.00 March.

COFFEE   

General Comments:  Futures were higher in New York and lower in London as rains falling in Brazil have been lighter than expected.  Brazil has been dry for flowering and initial fruit development although conditions are improving now with showers.  Most or all areas should be helped in the next week or two.  Vietnam has harvested its production under mostly dry conditions.  Central America is also drier for harvesting but producers there are holding and not offering.  The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home.  Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica.  The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.467 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 113.45 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 112.00 March.  Support is at 120.00, 116.00, and 113.00 March, and resistance is at 125.00, 129.00 and 130.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1310 March.   Support is at 1320, 1290, and 1260 March, and resistance is at 1360, 1380, and 1390 March.

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London closed sharply lower as the US Dollar rallied and as some hoped for rains started to appear in Brazil.  The world is now between sugarcane crops in Brazil.  Southern Brazil and Bahia have been dry, but center south areas have gotten some showers and more are in the forecast.  Bahia could get a few showers.  India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year.  Mo exports are coming out of India yet.  Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease.  Coronavirus has returned to the world and has caused some demand concerns, especially for Ethanol.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1560, 1510, and 1490 March, and resistance is at 1600, 1630, and 1660 March.  Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 421.00, 419.00, and 410.00 March, and resistance is at 436.00, 444.00, and 447.00 March.

COCOA                

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher in recovery trading.  Certified stocks continue to climb in New York after moving sharply lower about a month ago.  Importers are still looking for ways to source Cocoa without paying a premium demanded by Ivory Coast and Ghana.  Both countries have instituted a living wage for producers there and are looking to tax exports to pay the increased wages.  Buyers have been accused of using certified stocks from the exchange instead of buying from origin.  Origin has ample supplies to sell right now.  There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US.  Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic.  However, the grind has held amid good demand from chocolate manufacturers.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.122 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2440 and 2400 March.  Support is at 2500, 2470, and 2440 March, with resistance at 2500, 2660, and 2670 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1660, 1620, and 1610 March, with resistance at 1720, 1750, and 1780 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322