Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Grains Report 01/08/2021
WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower as export demand was weak in the sales report and the US Dollar turned stronger. The weather has improved in the Great Plains and in southern Russia as both areas have seen precipitation with more expected into next week. The northern Great Plains remain dry. European prices faded from a resistance area on the charts this week. US prices remain very close to international prices and US markets have searched for new demand. Export demand has started to improve with the close price relationships but remains moderate and the US price needs to remain close to the international price. World prices are stable to a little higher even with additional supplies available to the market as Russian prices remain elevated and as farmers there refuse to sell as they wait for higher prices. Russian farmers got a blow when the government announced export taxes that cut the domestic price, but farmers there are holding firm. Australian supplies have increased as its harvest is moving forward. US weather is mixed with still dry conditions in par4ts of the western Great Plains. Some precipitation was reported in the eastern Great Plains and in parts of the Midwest.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers today and tomorrow, then mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 634, 628, and 614 March, with resistance at 650, 660, and 664 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 597, 593, and 587 March, with resistance at 616, 618, and 624 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 597, 590, and 583 March, and resistance is at 607, 614, and 620 March.
RICE
General Comments: Rice was slightly higher in quiet trading. Trading still reflects the lack of activity in the domestic cash market and the lack of activity is causing some volatility to enter. The lack of offer from producers is supporting futures now. Trading volumes have been less for the last couple of weeks but improved yesterday due to the futures market volatility. The cash market is slow. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions. Export demand has held well despite the higher prices but was weak yesterday.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1261, 1259, and 1248 March, with resistance at 1281, 1293, and 1301 March.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower, with Corn working lower on forecasts for better rains in Brazil and a weaker export sale report. Trends are still up in both markets as the focus shifts to the WASDE reports next week that could show increased Corn demand and less production. Export demand has held strong as US Corn is about the cheapest feed grain in the world market. Domestic demand has been less due to reduced demand for ethanol processing and questions about feed demand. It has rained in central and northern Brazil. Southern Brazil and Argentina were mostly dry. Drought could develop in Brazil and Argentina as the overall weather patterns have been dry and as dry weather is in the forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil. Current forecasts call for a change in the weather and indicate more rain for the south. Some very timely and beneficial rains are forecast for southern Brazil and Argentina at that time and most crop areas are expected to get at least some rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with no objectives. Support is at 480, 473, and 467 March, and resistance is at 498, 502, and 505 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 352, 347, and 339 March, and resistance is at 363, 370, and 373 March.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower on the very bad weekly export sales report and on forecasts for improved rains in Brazil and Argentina. There are still ideas of less production and bigger demand and less ending stocks in the WASDE reports next week. There are still some forecasts of rains in South America. The best precipitation for Argentina and southern Brazil is expected next week. The forecasts call for very timely and beneficial rains for these areas. Just about all areas should see some precipitation at one point or another for the system as it moves through the region. Demand remains a feature of the market as US ending stocks estimates are very tight and are likely to get even tighter as time goes on. China continues to buy in small amounts each day but has cancelled and switched some contracts made to unknown destinations. Production potential is being threatened in South America due to the lack of rainfall. The situation is improved in central and northern Brazil but remains dire in southern Brazil and Argentina. The world will need very strong production from South America to meet the projected demand. The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years.
Overnight News: China bought 204,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1342, 1293, and 1268 March, and resistance is at 1378, 1388, and 1400 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 451.00 March. Support is at 426.00, 421.00, and 414.00 March, and resistance is at 434.00, 444.00, and 447.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 4310, 4200, and 4130 March, with resistance at 4420, 4430, and 4470 March.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on demand concerns. Production of Palm Oil and most vegetable oils in the world is less this year due to a lack of production of oilseeds. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Export demand has been strong and ethanol demand has been moderate. Canola was higher on the weaker Canadian Dollar. Production problems for Soybeans in South America helped Soybean Oil, but the resolution of the dock and oilseeds workers strikes in Argentina pushed prices a little lower for a day. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option. Trends are up. Demand for Canola has improved in recent weeks and farm selling has been less.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 654.00 and 671.00 March. Support is at 646.00, 636.00, and 631.00 March, with resistance at 655.00, 658.00, and 661.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 3770, 3630, and 3560 March, with resistance at 3890, 3910, and 3940 March.
DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Jan 7
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary
statistics for the week ended Jan. 3, 2021. Figures in thousands of metric
tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2283.1 750.5 303.3 449.6 66.4 1453.4 326.1 116.5 6549.4
Week Ago 2207.8 804.5 328.7 478.8 64.5 1667.7 360.3 145.0 6931.5
Year Ago 2714.1 738.5 286.4 403.5 34.4 1375.6 261.2 76.0 6539.3
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 236.9 57.5 24.5 66.5 5.4 372.8 37.1 5.4 844.1
Week Ago 670.8 187.3 76.1 230.3 21.0 729.2 100.7 13.3 2170.6
To Date 9165.2 2700.6 1443.5 2451.6 262.4 10017.5 2165.4 178.6 30770.3
Year Ago 8995.2 2120.9 1205.9 1874.5 140.5 8696.4 1981.6 167.6 26832.8
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 427.9 68.4 10.4 66.3 0.9 227.8 30.6 7.0 950.8
Week Ago 780.3 295.0 17.7 45.1 0.0 397.9 77.2 77.1 1901.4
To Date 10361.1 3291.2 402.9 1583.5 120.9 5787.8 1489.4 520.8 28310.8
Year Ago 8419.1 2880.6 297.2 1033.9 61.3 4517.5 1292.9 87.6 21931.2
EXPORTS
This Week 248.0 86.8 28.9 23.1 1.0 101.3 90.0 15.9 706.9
Week Ago 778.5 238.0 39.0 152.7 13.3 302.5 72.9 161.5 2018.3
To Date 8490.2 2466.0 998.3 1621.8 168.4 5204.2 1519.8 441.2 24367.4
Year Ago 6820.9 2152.5 808.4 991.6 80.5 3704.9 1242.0 12.5 18288.4
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 91.4 29.8 8.7 18.7 0.7 354.8 4.4 28.5 563.4
Week Ago 156.1 11.2 24.3 42.2 2.5 288.6 4.7 21.2 610.9
To Date 2036.4 231.8 318.3 491.3 28.6 4565.5 87.2 402.5 9076.7
Year Ago 1997.2 193.1 127.7 609.7 19.2 4855.1 97.5 296.5 9022.1
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-
9084)
Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry or light precipitation. Temperatures should average near normal
DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 7
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 619.60 -32.40 Mar 2021 up 3.70
Basis: Thunder Bay 701.80 45.00 Mar 2021 up 4.80
Basis: Vancouver 716.80 60.00 Mar 2021 up 4.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1037.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1022.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 990.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 930.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 855.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1040.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1025.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 992.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 932.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 857.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1015.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 900.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 4,030.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 340.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.029)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 146,729 lots, or 8.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 5,760 5,840 5,750 5,750 5,749 5,760 11 264 3,707
Mar-21 5,819 5,869 5,805 5,835 5,816 5,831 15 6,077 7,119
May-21 5,832 5,896 5,815 5,841 5,835 5,847 12 138,818 89,243
Jul-21 5,751 5,828 5,751 5,772 5,751 5,764 13 373 1,011
Sep-21 5,716 5,751 5,709 5,734 5,722 5,732 10 1,154 3,068
Nov-21 5,483 5,502 5,441 5,476 5,495 5,476 -19 43 157
Corn
Turnover: 839,888 lots, or 2.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 2,739 2,800 2,739 2,800 2,742 2,756 14 471 2,882
Mar-21 2,776 2,820 2,775 2,820 2,776 2,797 21 56,444 91,921
May-21 2,810 2,840 2,803 2,836 2,800 2,821 21 630,350 1,116,754
Jul-21 2,816 2,833 2,810 2,832 2,811 2,820 9 43,042 131,802
Sep-21 2,780 2,800 2,778 2,797 2,777 2,790 13 78,789 212,448
Nov-21 2,709 2,737 2,703 2,733 2,686 2,720 34 30,792 23,568
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,950,399 lots, or 68.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 3,495 3,563 3,495 3,563 3,508 3,540 32 60 350
Mar-21 3,538 3,581 3,503 3,569 3,527 3,537 10 92,463 56,921
May-21 3,510 3,545 3,480 3,536 3,522 3,509 -13 1,406,258 1,696,313
Jul-21 3,516 3,537 3,478 3,528 3,526 3,503 -23 93,500 83,007
Aug-21 3,536 3,567 3,505 3,562 3,554 3,535 -19 16,326 11,746
Sep-21 3,550 3,574 3,513 3,566 3,558 3,541 -17 341,157 623,766
Nov-21 3,470 3,497 3,455 3,497 3,489 3,471 -18 239 912
Dec-21 3,455 3,476 3,427 3,468 3,472 3,444 -28 396 1,914
Palm Oil
Turnover: 639,269 lots, or 46.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 7,488 7,488 7,444 7,444 7,454 7,450 -4 7 494
Feb-21 7,660 7,660 7,550 7,618 7,654 7,612 -42 14,305 24,822
Mar-21 7,624 7,634 7,530 7,600 7,632 7,596 -36 9,149 19,422
Apr-21 7,422 7,466 7,358 7,420 7,442 7,418 -24 4,795 6,271
May-21 7,250 7,298 7,172 7,246 7,282 7,238 -44 581,116 355,266
Jun-21 7,064 7,160 7,022 7,096 7,094 7,072 -22 1,619 1,105
Jul-21 6,936 6,956 6,888 6,952 6,976 6,922 -54 11 37
Aug-21 6,792 6,792 6,792 6,792 6,864 6,792 -72 1 3
Sep-21 6,758 6,788 6,682 6,742 6,784 6,742 -42 28,253 37,104
Oct-21 6,672 6,738 6,672 6,674 6,654 6,686 32 10 23
Nov-21 – – – 6,610 6,610 6,610 0 0 24
Dec-21 6,682 6,682 6,680 6,680 6,708 6,680 -28 3 19
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 654,534 lots, or 52.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 – – – 8,830 8,830 8,830 0 0 4,874
Mar-21 8,526 8,540 8,452 8,540 8,536 8,496 -40 7,671 8,233
May-21 8,138 8,184 8,080 8,148 8,150 8,128 -22 569,988 499,511
Jul-21 7,898 7,900 7,828 7,870 7,902 7,864 -38 16,381 25,098
Aug-21 7,778 7,794 7,720 7,764 7,800 7,754 -46 5,150 4,076
Sep-21 7,708 7,708 7,626 7,670 7,718 7,664 -54 55,294 81,570
Nov-21 7,624 7,644 7,606 7,606 7,660 7,626 -34 41 148
Dec-21 7,526 7,580 7,494 7,532 7,550 7,518 -32 9 24
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322