About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON       

General Comments:  Cotton closed mixed, with nearby months a little lower and deferred months a little higher.  Speculators were on both sides of the market.  Harvest is mostly done amid drier weather conditions in West Texas and the Delta and Southeast.  Ideas are that USDA can cut the production in its latest updates next week.  Export demand has held strong despite stay at home orders and weaker economies around the world.  Traders now hope for even more demand later as the vaccines are given out and the world economies start to recover.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Texas will have scattered showers and mostly below normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 75.70 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 69,527 bales, from 70,847 bales yesterday.   USDA said that net weekly Upland Cotton export sales were 153,100 bales this year and 0 balres next year.  Net Pima sales were 6,200 bales this year and 0 bales next year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8370 March.  Support is at 7990, 7800, and 7720 March, with resistance of 8100, 8130 and 8160 March.

DJ U.S. November Cotton Exports-Jan 7 

In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department  Commerce.

(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.

Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.

——- In Kilograms ——-

Nov 20      Oct 20      Sep 20        Nov 19

Upland, under 1 inch        11,512,660  11,308,268  12,595,484     8,359,281

1 to 1 1/8 inch           89,908,226  90,927,662  72,772,775    64,298,190

upland 1 1/8 and over    171,784,969 147,763,047 108,471,555   104,412,209

Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc   16,534,860  10,104,987   7,341,403     6,115,896

All cotton                 289,740,715 260,103,964 200,180,217   183,185,576

——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-

Nov 20      Oct 20      Sep 20        Nov 19

Upland, under 1 inch            52,877      51,938      57,851        38,394

1 to 1 1/8 inch              412,945     417,627     334,243       295,319

upland 1 1/8 and over        789,002     678,670     498,206       479,561

Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc       75,944      46,412      33,719        28,090

All cotton                   1,330,768   1,194,648     924,018       841,364

FCOJ 

General Comments:  FCOJ closed a little higher yesterday in range trading as Florida has escaped the cold and is now getting more rain in the north.  The weather in Florida remains good for the crops although it has been cold recently.  The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home.  Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out.  The weather in Florida is good with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation.  Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used.  Showers are falling in Brazil now and these need to continue to ensure good tree health.  However, it could turn warm and dry again next week.  Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains.  The Florida Movement and Pack report showed that FCOJ inventories are 16% less than last year.

Overnight News:  Florida should get isolated showers.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.   ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 121.00, 116.00, and 110.00 March, with resistance at 127.00, 128.00, and 129.00 March.

COFFEE   

General Comments:  Futures were lower no news of better rains for Brazil coffee areas.  Brazil has been dry for flowering and initial fruit development although conditions are improving now with showers.  Most or all areas should be helped in the next week or two.  Vietnam has harvested its production under mostly dry conditions.  Central America is also drier for harvesting but producers there are holding and not offering.  The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home.  Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica.  The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.458 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 113.57 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get scattered showers.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 112.00 March.  Support is at 120.00, 116.00, and 113.00 March, and resistance is at 125.00, 129.00 and 130.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 1350, 1320, and 1300 March, and resistance is at 1390, 1420, and 1450 March.

SUGAR                 

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher on what appeared to be speculative buying tied to less world production.  The world is now between sugarcane crops in Brazil.  Southern Brazil and Bahia have been dry, but center south areas have gotten some showers and more are in the forecast.  India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year.  The Indian government has not announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no exports are coming out of India yet.  Sources told wire services that any subsidy will need to be significant to get export sales on the books.  The government announced a new ethanol program today that could cut exports over time.  Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease.  Coronavirus has returned to the world and has caused some demand concerns, especially for Ethanol.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1720 March.  Support is at 1560, 1510, and 1490 March, and resistance is at 1640, 1670, and 1700 March.  Trends in London are up with no objectives.  Support is at 425.00, 419.00, and 410.00 March, and resistance is at 424.00, 447.00, and 450.00 March.

COCOA                

General Comments:  New York and London closed lower on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation and perhaps response new selling caused by the world economic turmoil and the US presidential mess.  Certified stocks continue to climb in New York after moving sharply lower about a month ago.  Importers are still looking for ways to source Cocoa without paying a premium demanded by Ivory Coast and Ghana.  Both countries have instituted a living wage for producers there and are looking to tax exports to pay the increased wages.  Buyers have been accused of using certified stocks from the exchange instead of buying from origin.  Origin has ample supplies to sell right now.  There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US.  Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic.  However, the grind has held amid good demand from chocolate manufacturers.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.102 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2440 and 2400 March.  Support is at 2440, 2430, and 2320 March, with resistance at 2540, 2600, and 2660 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1660, 1620, and 1610 March, with resistance at 1720, 1750, and 1780 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322