Breakout Tuesday. The Corn & Ethanol Report 01/06/2021

We start off the day with MBA Mortgage Applications (25/DEC), MBA Mortgage Applications (01/JAN), MBA 30 Year Mortgage Rate (25/DEC), and MBA Mortgage Rate (01/JAN) at 6:00 A.M., ADP Employment Change (DEC) at 7:15 A.M., Market Composite PMI Final (DEC) and Market Services OMI Final (DEC) at 8:45 A.M., Factory Orders MoM (NOV) and Factory Orders ex Transportation (NOV) at 9:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 105-Day and 154-Day Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., FOMC Minutes at 1:00 P.M. and Total Vehicle Sales at 6:00 P.M.

On the Corn Front the market took off and never looked back as traders were eyeing the latest news of the current export ban in Argentina. Tighter soybean supply in both the U.S. and Brazil, following record levels of buying by China, has left both countries sold out until the new harvest comes online from February and March. The Argentina ban on exports will leave the U.S. the main supply origin for the next two months. Argentina recorded over 1.2 million mt off corn licenses that were registered overnight in one of the busiest days in several weeks, all registrations booked against the upcoming crop which is scheduled to begin loading March 1, 2021. In the overnight electronic session, the march corn is currently trading at 498 ¼ which is 6 ½ cents higher. The trading range has been 502 ¾ to 492.

On the Ethanol Front Argentina hikes biodiesel and ethanol prices for the first time since October. The hikes are already raising pump prices. The price of ethanol made from sugarcane will rise 33% with no mention of corn ethanol prices, it is a required 12% ethanol blend. Back here in the states the oldest ethanol plant in the country is closing its doors. Ingredion informed suppliers of the decision. With corn prices at or about $5 a bushel and driving habits of Americans have not turned back to normal the move was made. Ethanol production drops to a two-month low as stockpiles increase. U.S. production was at 934,000bpd from 976,000 bpd a week ago. Today is the Last Trading Day on January ethanol. There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session, the April contract settled at 1.566 and is currently showing 1 bid @ 1.310 and 0 offers posted with Open Interest at 45 contracts.

On the Crude Oil Front the OPEC+ meeting had the market rolling as there were signs all sides were working in stride trying to mitigate damage that happened in previous meetings. Concerns with production levels in the face of the next lockdown had the side working together as opposed to the discord we have seen in the past. The API data did not keep this touchy-feely moment for long with a bearish number and the market retraced under $50 a barrel again The EIA energy stocks could point us back in the right direction once again. In the overnight electronic session, the February crude oil is currently trading at 4956 which is 37 points lower. The trading range has been 5059 to 4949.

On the Natural Gas Front the market is easing off the big cold snap run as so-called milder temperatures may be around portions of the U.S. the next 3-5 days; this will be a short time and I expect to see further bullish activity when the cold hits. In the overnight electronic session, the February natural gas is currently trading at 2.632 which is seven cents lower. The trading range has been 2.700 to 2.606.

Have A Great Trading Day!
Dan Flynn

Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374