About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed a little lower in consolidation trading last week. Harvest is mostly done amid drier weather conditions in West Texas and the Delta and Southeast. The weekly export sales report showed very strong demand once again last week. Export demand has held strong despite stay at home orders and weaker economies around the world. Traders now hope for even more demand later as the vaccines are given out and the world economies start to recover.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal in the Delta and in the Southeast early in the week, then near to below normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 71.85 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 77,326 bales, from 77,326 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 7520, 7430, and 7400 March, with resistance of 7700, 7740 and 7800 March.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little lower yesterday in spite of the cold weather making its way into the state. The cold is more a reminder of the time of year it is and less an actual threat to trees and fruit. The weather in Florida remains good for the crops. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out. The weather in Florida is good with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Showers are falling in Brazil now and these need to continue to ensure good tree health. However, it could turn warm and dry again next week. Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions today and tomorrow, then scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal through Thursday, then below normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 123.00, 128.00, and 130.00 January. Support is at 115.00, 113.00, and 110.00 January, with resistance at 120.00, 122.00, and 125.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher last week in both markets. Trends are turning up in both markets. The market is looking ahead to next year. Vietnam has harvested its production under mostly dry conditions. Central America is also drier for harvesting. Brazil is getting some rains now to improve fruit development after an extended dry season, but the rains are sporadic and not everyone is getting helped. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 1.396 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 115.91 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 123.00, 120.00, and 116.00 March, and resistance is at 128.00, 129.00 and 130.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1420, 1460, and 1780 March. Support is at 1340, 1330, and 1310 January, and resistance is at 1380, 1390, and 1410 January.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/22/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
107,013 55,904 63,032 16,047 13,210 1,134
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 52.2% 58.9% 15.0% 12.3% 1.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
127 43 39 13 4 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
10,010 5,388 4,500 4,146 6,221 9,657
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
9.4% 5.0% 4.2% 3.9% 5.8% 9.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
18 14 12 13 11 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,615 3,871
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.2% 3.6%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher and are now probing the upper end of the recent trading range on the charts. It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane is winding down for the season. The first half of December crush was down as cane production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year. The Indian government has not announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no exports are coming out of India yet. Sources told wire services that any subsidy will need to be significant to get export sales on the books. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease. Coronavirus has returned to the world and has caused some demand concerns, especially for Ethanol.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1500 and 1540 March. Support is at 1460, 1430, and 1410 March, and resistance is at 1510, 1530, and 1560 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 405.00, 401.00, and 395.00 March, and resistance is at 410.00, 418.00, and 423.00 March.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/22/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
==============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
91,098 41,652 76,242 10,199 3,315 2,221
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 45.7% 83.7% 11.2% 3.6% 2.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
111 32 39 10 6 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
24,976 1,550 2,738 2,506 719 1,871
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
27.4% 1.7% 3.0% 2.8% 0.8% 2.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
34 2 8 5 5 8
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,935 2,442
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.4% 2.7%

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed higher after rebounding from very low levels and London closed slightly higher last week. Importers are still looking for ways to source Cocoa without paying a premium demanded by Ivory Coast and Ghana. Both countries have instituted a living wage for producers there and are looking to tax exports to pay the increased wages. Buyers have been accused of using certified stocks from the exchange instead of buying from origin. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic. However, the grind has held amid good demand from chocolate manufacturers.
Overnight News: Sporadic and light showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 2.877 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2500, 2440, and 2430 March, with resistance at 2580, 2630, and 2650 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1670, 1620, and 1600 March, with resistance at 1730, 1760, and 1790 March.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/22/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
245,834 146,364 174,413 19,600 14,625 9,785
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 59.5% 70.9% 8.0% 5.9% 4.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
128 48 47 8 6 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
20,326 2,086 14,020 3,653 79 28,678
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.3% 0.8% 5.7% 1.5% 0.0% 11.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
28 10 13 18 3 20
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,408 2,148
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.4% 0.9%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322