About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher last week after a strong rally on Thursday. Minneapolis Spring Wheat contracts closed higher as well, but lagged the strength of the Winter Wheat markets. US prices remain very close to international prices and US markets have searched for new demand. Export demand has started to improve with the close price relationships but remains moderate. World prices have held steady or worked a little higher even with additional supplies available to the market as Russian prices remain elevated. Australian supplies have increased as its harvest is moving forward. US weather is mixed with still dry conditions in the western Great Plains. Some precipitation was reported in the eastern Great Plains and in parts of the Midwest. Parts of southern Russia remain dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions after scattered showers today. Temperatures will be mostly above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers today, then mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 639, 652, and 684 March. Support is at 620, 610, and 606 March, with resistance at 636, 642, and 648 March. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 594 and 613 March. Support is at 576, 571, and 563 March, with resistance at 593, 597, and 600 March. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 604, 608, and 630 March. Support is at 574, 562, and 556 March, and resistance is at 589, 597, and 603 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower last week as trading reflected the lack of activity in the domestic cash market. The weekly export sales report featured strong demand overall. Trading volumes have been less for the last couple of weeks. The cash market is slow and the lack of business is reflected in futures volumes traded. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1222 and 1210 January. Support is at 1227, 1220, and 1215 January, with resistance at 1244, 1253, and 1267 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher and trends are still up on the daily and weekly charts. Oats moved sideways. New export demand was weaker and the lowest for the marketing year last week. Export demand has held strong as US Corn is about the cheapest feed grain in the world market. Domestic demand has been less due to reduced demand for ethanol processing and questions about feed demand. It has rained in parts of Argentina and in much of Brazil in the past week. Drought could develop in Brazil and Argentina as the overall weather patterns have been dry and as dry weather is in the forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil. The drought is especially serious in South America for the first Corn crop but the second crop could also be affected due to late planting in central and northern Brazil. Dry weather has delayed the Soybeans planting and that will delay the second Corn planting later.
Overnight News: USDA said that 149,572 tons of US Corn were sold to unknown destinations.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 453 March. Support is at 440, 433, and 430 March, and resistance is at 451, 454, and 457 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 335, 332, and 330 March, and resistance is at 341, 343, and 345 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher once again on better demand for US Soybeans and despite rains in South America. The weekly export sales report was in line with expectations but still the lowest amount for the marketing year. US ending stocks estimates are very tight and are likely to get even tighter as time goes on. China continues to buy in small amounts each day but has cancelled and switched some contracts made to unknown destinations. Production potential is being threatened in South America due to the lack of rainfall. The situation is most serious in central and northern Brazil, but has improved in southern Brazil and Argentina due to recent rains. Southern Brazil and Argentina will now turn warm and dry and this will be much more consistent with atypical La Nina pattern. The world will need very strong production from South America to meet the projected demand. The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years.
Overnight News: USDA said that unknown destinations bought 233,790 tons of US Soybeans, 125,000 tons of US Soybeans, and 33,000 tons of US Soybean Oil.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 1237, 1200, and 1180 January, and resistance is at 1274, 1288, and 1300 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 413.00, 408.00, and 400.00 January, and resistance is at 425.00, 428.00, and 431.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 4530 January. Support is at 4140, 4050, and 4020 January, with resistance at 4200, 4230, and 4260 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher and made a new high weekly close once again last week. Futures were lower today on speculative long liquidation. The market was supported by ideas of tight supplies coming down the road. Production of most vegetable oils in the world is less this year due to a lack of production of oilseeds. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Export demand has been strong and ethanol demand has been moderate. Soybean Oil and Canola were higher on strong demand ideas. Production problems for Soybeans in South America and a strike by workers at ports in Argentina helped Soybean Oil. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option. Trends are up in Soybean Oil and in Canola. Demand for Canola has improved in recent weeks and farm selling has been less.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 621.00, 614.00, and 601.00 January, with resistance at 634.00, 641.00, and 647.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 3540, 3460, and 3400 March, with resistance at 3610, 3640, and 3670 March.

DJ Malaysia Dec. 1-25 Palm Oil Exports Rise 17%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Dec. 1-25 period are estimated up 17% on month at 1,343,799 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Monday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Dec 1-25 Nov 1-25
RBD Palm Olein 310,295 387,205
RBD Palm Oil 90,225 63,055
RBD Palm Stearin 103,630 96,950
Crude Palm Oil 457,765 319,540
Total* 1,343,799 1,145,868
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.
Write to Chester Tay at chester.tay@wsj.com

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some precipitation middle and late this week. Temperatures should average near normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
December +79 Mar +152 Mar +92 Mar +80 Jan +15 Jan N/A
January +77 Mar +95 Mar +75 Jan
February +76 Mar +97 Mar +76 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 24
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for Dec. 24, 2020.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 588.40 -35.50 Jan 21 dn 7.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 673.40 45.00 Mar 21 up 7.60
Basis: Vancouver 688.40 60.00 Mar 21 up 7.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 982.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 937.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 850.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 782.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 985.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 940.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 852.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 785.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 960.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 850.00 05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3,840.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 318.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.048)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 233,555 lots, or 13.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 5,676 5,676 5,600 5,619 5,605 5,644 39 4,330 8,168
Mar-21 5,672 5,738 5,586 5,676 5,650 5,676 26 6,849 5,903
May-21 5,696 5,753 5,600 5,680 5,672 5,696 24 219,606 82,864
Jul-21 5,585 5,664 5,520 5,596 5,573 5,605 32 2,093 3,525
Sep-21 5,485 5,530 5,435 5,483 5,477 5,492 15 667 2,293
Nov-21 5,315 5,315 5,236 5,252 5,250 5,258 8 10 116
Corn
Turnover: 1,314,168 lots, or 35.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 2,607 2,647 2,596 2,641 2,592 2,630 38 29,246 82,512
Mar-21 2,644 2,684 2,638 2,677 2,635 2,666 31 28,193 87,576
May-21 2,674 2,719 2,671 2,708 2,670 2,698 28 1,012,063 1,044,861
Jul-21 2,706 2,738 2,696 2,726 2,696 2,722 26 163,376 151,647
Sep-21 2,676 2,710 2,673 2,698 2,671 2,694 23 72,856 198,311
Nov-21 2,604 2,631 2,601 2,618 2,603 2,618 15 8,434 13,048
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,060,657 lots, or 6.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 3,218 3,263 3,212 3,225 3,204 3,233 29 32,207 33,814
Mar-21 3,260 3,303 3,254 3,268 3,241 3,274 33 59,464 43,301
May-21 3,304 3,349 3,292 3,307 3,295 3,319 24 1,172,382 1,590,674
Jul-21 3,311 3,342 3,289 3,302 3,283 3,312 29 483,640 64,795
Aug-21 3,352 3,389 3,339 3,349 3,327 3,365 38 64,895 12,576
Sep-21 3,362 3,403 3,350 3,364 3,351 3,376 25 247,316 511,526
Nov-21 3,326 3,344 3,323 3,323 3,292 3,334 42 30 811
Dec-21 3,280 3,305 3,278 3,284 3,274 3,291 17 723 1,264
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,239,878 lots, or 87.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 7,436 7,444 7,188 7,228 7,386 7,312 -74 11,783 12,194
Feb-21 7,540 7,564 7,308 7,360 7,518 7,458 -60 275,854 57,422
Mar-21 7,460 7,500 7,272 7,320 7,448 7,418 -30 60,508 11,337
Apr-21 7,268 7,268 7,036 7,080 7,214 7,172 -42 88,734 4,425
May-21 7,034 7,036 6,778 6,832 6,980 6,916 -64 777,317 333,273
Jun-21 6,844 6,844 6,698 6,698 6,842 6,788 -54 5 8
Jul-21 6,620 6,620 6,462 6,464 6,592 6,496 -96 12,206 107
Aug-21 6,526 6,526 6,526 6,526 6,568 6,526 -42 1 4
Sep-21 6,526 6,538 6,300 6,340 6,470 6,430 -40 13,465 27,892
Oct-21 6,426 6,426 6,402 6,402 6,394 6,406 12 5 19
Nov-21 – – – 6,408 6,408 6,408 0 0 31
Dec-21 – – – 6,394 6,398 6,394 -4 0 6
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 883,938 lots, or 69.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 8,700 8,744 8,538 8,570 8,698 8,644 -54 20,368 30,039
Mar-21 8,414 8,450 8,250 8,280 8,334 8,350 16 13,699 12,397
May-21 7,940 7,948 7,700 7,740 7,888 7,832 -56 730,309 506,402
Jul-21 7,602 7,604 7,358 7,390 7,550 7,480 -70 86,616 20,858
Aug-21 7,542 7,542 7,300 7,326 7,474 7,428 -46 12,437 3,593
Sep-21 7,468 7,468 7,262 7,288 7,418 7,364 -54 20,497 50,197
Nov-21 7,340 7,340 7,184 7,202 7,346 7,252 -94 11 51
Dec-21 7,300 7,300 7,300 7,300 7,290 7,300 10 1 8
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322