Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton closed higher again and made a new high close on the weekly charts again. USDA surprised the market over a week ago when it released its monthly supply and demand reports. The reports showed a significant drop in production of US Cotton and much reduced US ending stocks levels. The reports were bullish and a move to the upper end of the 70 cents range is possible. Harvest is wrapping up amid drier weather conditions in West Texas and the Delta and Southeast. The weekly export sales report showed very strong demand once again last week. Export demand has held strong despite stay at home orders and weaker economies around the world. Traders now hope for even more demand later as the vaccines are given out and the world economies start to recover.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal in the Delta and in the Southeast early in the week, then near to below normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 70.47 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 77,326 bales, from 77,678 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 354 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7490, 7740, and 7930 March. Support is at 7600, 7550, and 7460 March, with resistance of 7740, 7770 and 7800 March.
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher again yesterday on follow through buying from the rally late last week. The weather in Florida remains mostly benign. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out. The weather in Florida is good with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Showers are falling in Brazil now and these need to continue to ensure good tree health. However, it could turn warm and dry again next week. Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions today and tomorrow, then scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal through Thursday, then below normal normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 123.00, 128.00, and 130.00 January. Support is at 115.00, 113.00, and 110.00 January, with resistance at 125.00, 126.00, and 127.00 January.
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York, but mostly slightly higher in London. It has been a weather market and the weather has improved. Vietnam has harvested its production under mostly dry conditions. Central America is also drier for harvesting. Brazil is getting some rains now to improve flowering after an extended dry season and just about everyone is getting helped. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.373 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 115.98 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 120.00, 116.00, and 113.00 March, and resistance is at 125.00, 128.00 and 129.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1420, 1460, and 1780 March. Support is at 1340, 1330, and 1310 January, and resistance is at 1380, 1390, and 1410 January.
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher. It has been raining in much of Brazil and the production of cane should be improved. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year. The Indian government has not announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no exports are coming out of India yet. Sources told wire services that any subsidy will need to be significant to get export sales on the books. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease. Coronavirus has returned to the world and has caused some demand concerns, especially for Ethanol.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1430, 1410, and 1400 March, and resistance is at 1480, 1510, and 1530 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 395.00, 389.00, and 381.00 March, and resistance is at 406.00, 410.00, and 418.00 March.
General Comments: New York and London closed slightly higher yesterday in reversal type trading. Futures act as if they got cheap enough to create new demand. Importers are still looking for ways to source Cocoa without paying a premium demanded by Ivory Coast and Ghana. Both countries have instituted a living wage for producers there and are looking to tax exports to pay the increased wages. Buyers have been accused of using certified stocks from the exchange instead of buying from origin. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic.
Overnight News: Sporadic and light showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.898 million bags. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered against December Cocoa and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,255 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2440, 2430, and 2320 March, with resistance at 2580, 2630, and 2650 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1670, 1620, and 1600 March, with resistance at 1730, 1760, and 1790 March.