About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Dec 21
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING DEC 17, 2020
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 12/17/2020 12/10/2020 12/19/2019 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 17,751 16,760
CORN 762,937 924,246 401,894 12,733,109 7,643,232
FLAXSEED 0 0 100 437 296
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 998 0 2,393 2,295
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 134,978 199,093 157,401 1,860,597 865,925
SOYBEANS 2,532,924 2,457,879 1,096,938 34,699,348 19,789,040
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 391,219 262,975 606,377 14,126,553 14,174,321
Total 3,822,058 3,845,191 2,262,710 63,440,188 42,491,869
————————————————————————-

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower in early trading, but rallied on the back of Soybeans to close a littl4e higher. Minneapolis Spring Wheat contracts also closed a little higher. The Russian Wheat export tax is being passed onto farmers by the exporters and farmers are not selling. They apparently have a lot of money right now and do not need to sell. US prices moved very close to international prices and US markets searched for new demand. Export demand has started to improve with the close price relationships. World prices have held steady or worked a little higher even with additional supplies available to the market as Russian prices remain elevated. Australian supplies have increased as its harvest is moving forward. US weather is mixed with still dry conditions in the western Great Plains even though a few areas got some snow. Some precipitation was reported in the eastern Great Plains and in parts of the Midwest. Parts of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia remain dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions after scattered showers today and tomorrow. Temperatures will be mostly above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers today and tomorrow, then mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 606, 597, and 594 March, with resistance at 615, 620, and 623 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 564, 560, and 556 March, with resistance at 575, 586, and 588 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 588, 596, and 608 March. Support is at 562, 556, and 553 March, and resistance is at 574, 581, and 589 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower in quiet trading as trading reflected the lack of activity in the domestic cash market. Trading volumes have been less for the last couple of weeks. The cash market is slow and the lack of business is reflected in futures volumes traded. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1236, 1230, and 1227 January, with resistance at 1253, 1267, and 1270 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher after trading lower for much of the day. Corn has been a demand based market and the demand overall has improved. Export demand has held strong as US Corn is about the cheapest feed grain in the world market. Domestic demand has been less due to reduced demand for ethanol processing but feed demand has been good. It has rained in parts of Argentina and in much of Brazil in the past week. Drought could develop in Brazil and Argentina despite the rains this week as the overall weather patterns have been dry and as dry weather is in the forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil. The drought is especially serious in South America for the first Corn crop but the second crop could also be affected due to late planting in central and northern Brazil. Dry weather has delayed the Soybeans planting and that will delay the second Corn planting later. Farmers will not plant if it gets too late in the year as the rains will shut off before the crop gets mature.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 430, 427, and 424 March, and resistance is at 440, 443, and 446 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 335, 330, and 320 March, and resistance is at 341, 343, and 345 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher on better demand for US Soybeans and despite rains in South America. A new leg higher appears to be underway on the daily and weekly charts. The weekly export sales report was above expectations and the NOPA crush was very strong last week. US ending stocks estimates now are very tight and are likely to get even tighter as tie goes on. China continues to buy in small amounts each day but has cancelled and switched some contracts made to unknown destinations. Production potential is being threatened in South America due to the lack of rainfall. The situation is most serious in central and northern Brazil, but has improved in southern Brazil and Argentina due to recent rains. These rains are leaving southern Brazil and Argentina now and will move to the north. Southern Brazil and Argentina will now turn warm and dry and this will be much more consistent with atypical La Nina pattern. The world will need very strong production from South America to meet the projected demand. The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years. A port strike in Argentina has many exporters looking to the US for supplies at this time.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1245 January. Support is at 1200, 1180, and 1172 January, and resistance is at 1248, 1260, and 1272 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 400.00, 394.00, and 391.00 January, and resistance is at 413.00, 416.00, and 419.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4090 and 4530 January. Support is at 3930, 3900, and 3860 January, with resistance at 4020, 4050, and 4080 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher today on reports of increased export demand and tight supplies. Malaysia announced it would impose its export tax again starting next month but futures held strong. Production of most vegetable oils in the world is less this year due to a lack of production of oilseeds. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia as plantations in both countries are having trouble getting workers into the fields. Palm Oil prices are relatively high right now so importers are looking at importing Soybean Oil instead due to cost and quality. Canola was higher on strong demand ideas. Production problems for Soybeans in South America and a strike by workers at ports in Argentina helped Soybean Oil. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option. Trends are up in Soybean Oil and in Canola. Demand for Canola has improved in recent weeks and farm selling has been less as farmers have reduced supplies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 640.00 January. Support is at 621.00, 614.00, and 601.00 January, with resistance at 634.00, 637.00, and 640.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3520 and 3540 March. Support is at 3370, 3330, and 3280 March, with resistance at 3460, 3490, and 3520 March.

DJ Malaysia Dec. 1-20 Palm Oil Exports Rose About 12%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Dec. 1-20 period are estimated to have risen 12% on month to 1,010,653 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Tuesday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
December 1-20 November 1-20
RBD Palm Olein 245,295 313,520
RBD Palm Oil 95,095 68,905
RBD Palm Stearin 50,184 67,985
Crude Palm Oil 299,860 211,710
Total* 1,010,653 899,322
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some precipitation tomorrow. Temperatures should average below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
December +71 Mar +152 Mar +92 Mar +78 Jan +15 Jan N/A
January +73 Mar +95 Mar +75 Jan
February +75 Mar +97 Mar +74 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 21
WINNIPEG, Dec. 21 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 591.40 -30.07 Jan 2021 up 8.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 670.80 35.00 Jan 2021 up 2.00
Basis: Vancouver 685.80 45.00 Jan 2021 up 2.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 22
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 937.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 900.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 835.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 772.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 940.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 902.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 837.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 775.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 920.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 820.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3,680.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 300.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.058)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 22
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 262,564 lots, or 14.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 5,405 5,553 5,396 5,546 5,363 5,490 127 19,076 10,503
Mar-21 5,461 5,599 5,455 5,578 5,423 5,554 131 6,163 5,706
May-21 5,500 5,647 5,478 5,599 5,457 5,572 115 230,125 78,237
Jul-21 5,480 5,600 5,413 5,564 5,414 5,549 135 6,216 2,954
Sep-21 5,448 5,530 5,421 5,494 5,376 5,486 110 930 2,442
Nov-21 5,277 5,333 5,263 5,299 5,243 5,291 48 54 104
Corn
Turnover: 776,157 lots, or 20.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 2,560 2,561 2,546 2,559 2,549 2,554 5 43,341 133,472
Mar-21 2,599 2,615 2,590 2,606 2,593 2,603 10 40,870 73,919
May-21 2,643 2,652 2,631 2,646 2,635 2,641 6 544,907 980,771
Jul-21 2,662 2,674 2,654 2,672 2,659 2,665 6 107,778 133,021
Sep-21 2,649 2,661 2,641 2,656 2,646 2,652 6 36,510 181,949
Nov-21 2,591 2,599 2,581 2,599 2,586 2,592 6 2,751 9,510
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,851,239 lots, or 94.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 3,220 3,292 3,185 3,239 3,170 3,241 71 82,063 79,960
Mar-21 3,247 3,326 3,221 3,280 3,208 3,283 75 54,340 31,365
May-21 3,283 3,354 3,245 3,314 3,236 3,308 72 2,003,716 1,617,534
Jul-21 3,255 3,338 3,225 3,291 3,210 3,292 82 358,575 51,512
Aug-21 3,298 3,387 3,275 3,348 3,258 3,344 86 26,343 12,054
Sep-21 3,311 3,402 3,286 3,355 3,275 3,352 77 325,633 473,618
Nov-21 3,275 3,352 3,264 3,310 3,249 3,314 65 183 832
Dec-21 3,231 3,311 3,221 3,271 3,246 3,280 34 386 565
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,628,008 lots, or 11.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 6,950 7,118 6,854 6,896 7,072 6,986 -86 44,844 29,785
Feb-21 7,112 7,248 6,968 7,018 7,174 7,114 -60 339,418 55,529
Mar-21 7,046 7,180 6,898 6,938 7,096 7,052 -44 166,535 8,067
Apr-21 6,896 7,032 6,726 6,744 6,946 6,860 -86 91,245 2,806
May-21 6,720 6,876 6,528 6,572 6,782 6,708 -74 961,706 313,832
Jun-21 6,700 6,700 6,700 6,700 6,692 6,700 8 1 7
Jul-21 6,442 6,530 6,268 6,268 6,506 6,398 -108 7,545 30
Aug-21 6,430 6,430 6,430 6,430 6,338 6,430 92 1 4
Sep-21 6,250 6,378 6,168 6,172 6,330 6,242 -88 16,713 26,401
Oct-21 – – – 6,206 6,286 6,206 -80 0 16
Nov-21 – – – 6,216 6,304 6,216 -88 0 31
Dec-21 – – – 6,228 6,282 6,228 -54 0 6
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,111,502 lots, or 84.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 8,340 8,444 8,210 8,224 8,404 8,326 -78 90,151 82,853
Mar-21 7,978 8,108 7,790 7,910 8,078 7,964 -114 3,052 8,985
May-21 7,644 7,778 7,482 7,508 7,716 7,638 -78 830,172 480,547
Jul-21 7,376 7,468 7,178 7,218 7,420 7,358 -62 112,327 19,992
Aug-21 7,308 7,398 7,114 7,120 7,344 7,302 -42 53,230 2,513
Sep-21 7,252 7,332 7,082 7,114 7,278 7,224 -54 22,543 50,465
Nov-21 7,166 7,284 7,112 7,112 7,292 7,174 -118 17 71
Dec-21 7,180 7,364 7,132 7,132 7,244 7,180 -64 10 9
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322