Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton closed sharply higher once again on follow through buying tied to the USDA reports and increased export demand. USDA surprised the market on Thursday when it released its monthly supply and demand reports. The reports showed a significant drop in production of US Cotton and much reduced US ending stocks levels. The reports were bullish and a move to the upper end of the 70 cents range is possible. Harvest is wrapping up amid drier weather conditions in West Texas and the Delta and Southeast. The weekly export sales report showed very strong demand again yesterday. Export demand has held strong despite stay at home orders and weaker economies around the world. Traders now hope for even more demand later as the vaccines are given out and the world economies start to recover.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions except for some showers on Friday in the Delta and Saturday in the Southeast. Temperatures should average near to below normal in the Delta and in the Southeast but will turn to near to above normal in the Delta over the weekend. Texas will have mostly dry conditions except for some isolat4ed showers on Friday and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 72.90 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 78,031 bales, from 79,352 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 354 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7490, 7740, and 7930 March. Support is at 7600, 7550, and 7460 March, with resistance of 7740, 7770 and 7800 March.
General Comments: FCOJ was lower in range trading. The big Florida production estimate for oranges is still hanging on the market price action. Florida was spared from hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home, but this could change soon as vaccines become available. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out. The weather in Florida is good with some showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry. Showers are falling in Brazil now and these need to continue to ensure good tree health. Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 112.00 and 110.00 January. Support is at 113.00, 110.00, and 100.00 January, with resistance at 118.00, 120.00, and 122.00 January.
DJ Egypt’s Citrus Exports Look Set to Rise on Favorable Weather — Market Talk
0332 GMT – Egypt’s citrus exports look set to rise due to favorable weather conditions, the U.S. Department of Agriculture says in a note. It forecasts exports in 2020-2021 to reach 1.5 million metric tons, up from 1.37 million tons in 2019-2020. It adds that exports in 2019-2020 were hurt by the Covid-19 pandemic. However, Egypt was the top orange exporter in the world during the past five years with a total volume of 7.76 million tons, thanks to the success of Egypt’s export policy, it says.(email@example.com)
General Comments: Futures were unchanged to a little higher again on Brazil weather and an overall weakening US Dollar. Trends in the US Dollar remain down against the basket of currencies. Ideas of poor flowering for the Brazil crop and high offer prices from Central America are supporting New York and to a lesser extent London. It has been a weather market and the weather has improved. Vietnam has harvested about a quarter of its projected production under mostly dry conditions. Central America is also drier for harvesting. Brazil is getting some rains now to improve flowering after an extended dry season. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.371 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 116.98 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,592 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 130.00 and 135.00 March. Support is at 125.00, 120.00, and 116.00 March, and resistance is at 128.00, 129.00 and 130.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1420, 1460, and 1780 March. Support is at 1330, 1310, and 1290 January, and resistance is at 1380, 1390, and 1410 January.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on follow through buying tied to a weaker US Dollar. The weather in Brazil has improved in growing areas now but it has been very dry overall. It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane has been improved. Rains are now spreading north to help the cane in those areas. The first half of November crush was down almost 20% from the previous year as cane production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year. The Indian government has not announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no exports are coming out of India yet. One could be announced soon according to the newswires. Sources told wire services that any subsidy will need to be significant to get export sales on the books. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1430, 1410, and 1400 March, and resistance is at 1480, 1510, and 1530 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 395.00, 389.00, and 381.00 March, and resistance is at 406.00, 410.00, and 418.00 March.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher in recovery trading. Ivory Coast and Ghana have instituted a living wage for producers there and are looking to tax exports to pay the increased wages. Buyers have been accused of using certified stocks from the exchange instead of buying from origin. However, it looks like the exchange buying is over. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic. However, chocolate manufacturers are reporting good demand from consumers
Overnight News: Sporadic and light showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are a little higher today at 2.923 million bags. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered against December Cocoa and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,255 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2440, 2400, and 2310 March. Support is at 2450, 2440, and 2430 March, with resistance at 2580, 2630, and 2650 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1650 and 1570 March. Support is at 1620, 1600, and 1580 March, with resistance at 1710, 1730, and 1760 March.