About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for December USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Dec 1 100.0 99.1- 100.8
Placed in Nov 91.5 85.5- 95.2
Marketed in Nov 98.1 97.6- 102.3
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Dec 1 in Nov in Nov
Allegiant Commodity Group 99.4 87.4 98.0
Allendale Inc. 100.6 95.2 98.2
HedgersEdge 99.1 85.5 98.3
Linn Group 100.0 94.6 102.3
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 100.4 93.1 97.7
NFC Markets 99.7 89.6 98.2
Texas A&M Extension 100.8 95.0 97.6
U.S. Commodities 99.6 89.0 98.0
Write to Donna Huneke at DJSurvey@dowjones.com

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher on improved export demand and the rallies in Corn and Soybeans. Futures have rallied in the last few days in reaction to news that the Russian government is looking to tame food inflation inside the country by taxes of $30.00 per ton on Wheat along with taxes on some other agricultural products. News that Egypt paid its highest price in five years for Romanian and Ukrainian Wheat earlier this week was also bullish. All of this now appears to be part of the futures price. US prices remain very close to international prices and US markets searched for new demand. Export demand has started to improve slightly with the close price relationships although they are still not huge. World prices have held steady or worked a little higher even with additional supplies available to the market as Russian prices remain elevated. Australian supplies have increased as its harvest is moving forward. US weather is mixed with still dry conditions in the western Great Plains. Some precipitation was reported in the eastern Great Plains and in parts of the Midwest. Parts of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia remain dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions but light precipitation on Friday. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 594, 590, and 584 March, with resistance at 608, 610, and 622 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 556, 553, and 545 March, with resistance at 573, 576, and 586 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 563, 556, and 553 March, and resistance is at 574, 581, and 589 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was slightly higher on the very strong weekly export sales report. The overwhelming amount of the sales were to Venezuela and this demand often goes to Brazil. Getting so much demand from Venezuela is bullish for the market.. Directional trading was quiet. The cash market is slow despite the export demand and the lack of business is reflected in futures volumes traded. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions but light precipitation on Friday. Temperatures should be near to below normal today, then trend to near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1275, 1308, and 1337 March. Support is at 1248, 1236, and 1230 January, with resistance at 1267, 1270, and 1276 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher on a combination of speculator and industry buying. The export sales report for Corn was very strong and above all trade expectations. Corn is being supported by firming basis levels in the US and South America. It has rained in parts of Argentina and in parts of Brazil in the past week and more is in the forecasts for the coming two weeks. No one will see showers or rains each day, but just about everyone should get at least some precipitation over the two week period. Southern Brazil and Argentina should get important rains today, then drier weather again. Drought could develop in Brazil and Argentina despite the rains this week as the overall weather patterns have been dry. The current drought is especially serious in South America for the first Corn crop but the second crop could also be affected due to late planting in central and northern Brazil. Dry weather has delayed the Soybeans planting and that will delay the second Corn planting later. Farmers will not plant if it gets too late in the year as the rains will shut off before the crop gets mature.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 424, 418, and 415 March, and resistance is at 437, 439, and 442 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 330, 320, and 315 March, and resistance is at 339, 343, and 345 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans closed and products closed higher as cash markets are firm and despite better rains in South America. The export sales report was very strong and above all trade expectations. It included new buying from China. US and South American cash markets have been firming despite the sideways action of late in futures. The NOPA crush report was called bullish for Soybeans and both products. Production potential is being threatened in South America due to the lack of rainfall. The situation has improved in southern Brazil and Argentina due to recent rains. These rains have moved to the north to help out producers in central and northern Brazil. Other rains are being seen in the south over the next couple of days, then drier conditions are forecast. The world will need very strong production from South America to meet the projected demand. The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years. Higher Soybeans prices are likely.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1207, 1209, and 1245 January. Support is at 1180, 1172, and 1168 January, and resistance is at 1220, 1236, and 1248 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 401.00 January. Support is at 390.00, 385.00, and 381.00 January, and resistance is at 401.00, 404.00, and 407.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 4090 and 4530 January. Support is at 3900, 3860, and 3830 January, with resistance at 3990, 4020, and 4050 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on the price action in Chicago and petroleum futures. The market was supported by ideas of tight supplies coming down the road. MPOB released its monthly supply and demand report last week and noted less production. Production of most vegetable oils in the world is less this year due to a lack of production of oilseeds. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia in part due to the difficulty of sourcing plantation workers due to the Coronavirus. Palm Oil prices are relatively high right now so importers are looking at importing Soybean Oil instead due to cost and quality. Canola was higher and made new contract highs again. Canola has made new contract highs every day this week. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option. Trends are up. Demand for Canola has improved in recent weeks and farm selling has been less as farmers have reduced supplies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 632.00 and 640.00 January. Support is at 601.00, 599.00, and 593.00 January, with resistance at 616.00, 619.00, and 622.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3590 February. Support is at 3390, 3340, and 3300 February, with resistance at 3500, 3530, and 3560 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some precipitation this weekend. Temperatures should average near to above normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
December +71 Mar +150 Mar +92 Mar +72 Jan +15 Jan N/A
January +72 Mar +95 Mar +74 Jan
February +75 Mar +97 Mar +73 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 17
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for Dec. 17, 2020.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 570.50 -32.40 Jan 21 up 1.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 660.20 45.00 Jan 21 up 12.30
Basis: Vancouver 670.20 55.00 Jan 21 up 12.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 942.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 905.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 847.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 780.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 945.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 907.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 850.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 782.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 925.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 825.00 — Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3,680.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 291.00 — Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.038)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 169,182 lots, or 8.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 5,283 5,307 5,233 5,269 5,282 5,269 -13 51,595 19,387
Mar-21 5,289 5,343 5,267 5,309 5,295 5,309 14 4,176 4,697
May-21 5,275 5,350 5,270 5,322 5,284 5,313 29 111,189 72,037
Jul-21 5,276 5,343 5,266 5,316 5,276 5,308 32 1,640 3,418
Sep-21 5,227 5,283 5,216 5,267 5,223 5,259 36 554 2,506
Nov-21 5,141 5,176 5,131 5,131 5,145 5,151 6 28 95
Corn
Turnover: 613,009 lots, or 15.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 2,540 2,550 2,532 2,544 2,535 2,540 5 49,425 154,405
Mar-21 2,576 2,589 2,569 2,579 2,574 2,575 1 29,333 54,724
May-21 2,613 2,623 2,601 2,615 2,607 2,611 4 411,525 1,008,281
Jul-21 2,627 2,641 2,619 2,634 2,621 2,630 9 87,706 132,057
Sep-21 2,627 2,641 2,623 2,635 2,626 2,632 6 31,840 172,126
Nov-21 2,571 2,583 2,565 2,575 2,571 2,574 3 3,180 9,104
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,735,057 lots, or 54.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 3,093 3,142 3,074 3,134 3,095 3,117 22 140,914 140,733
Mar-21 3,104 3,171 3,103 3,166 3,125 3,143 18 29,830 29,538
May-21 3,139 3,195 3,127 3,189 3,150 3,169 19 1,090,393 1,601,248
Jul-21 3,118 3,173 3,109 3,167 3,129 3,146 17 284,194 52,809
Aug-21 3,167 3,223 3,161 3,217 3,183 3,201 18 17,406 11,868
Sep-21 3,179 3,238 3,173 3,229 3,195 3,211 16 171,883 464,581
Nov-21 3,161 3,202 3,155 3,190 3,167 3,182 15 148 1,076
Dec-21 3,151 3,199 3,139 3,178 3,156 3,173 17 289 334
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,414,627 lots, or 9.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 6,974 7,096 6,950 7,094 6,996 7,020 24 66,943 52,468
Feb-21 7,080 7,186 7,044 7,180 7,082 7,122 40 342,877 55,198
Mar-21 6,994 7,108 6,960 7,094 6,990 7,038 48 107,358 7,577
Apr-21 6,822 6,958 6,810 6,958 6,842 6,890 48 149,229 2,472
May-21 6,664 6,810 6,652 6,786 6,682 6,734 52 739,053 342,757
Jun-21 6,676 6,730 6,676 6,710 6,602 6,704 102 5 6
Jul-21 6,388 6,506 6,382 6,486 6,386 6,424 38 22 13
Aug-21 – – – 6,338 6,338 6,338 0 0 4
Sep-21 6,246 6,352 6,232 6,342 6,254 6,294 40 9,109 24,848
Oct-21 6,220 6,306 6,220 6,306 6,218 6,246 28 27 16
Nov-21 6,198 6,310 6,198 6,310 6,204 6,256 52 3 26
Dec-21 6,282 6,282 6,282 6,282 6,170 6,282 112 1 6
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,082,786 lots, or 83.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 8,128 8,444 8,128 8,420 8,112 8,296 184 159,334 123,102
Mar-21 7,858 8,082 7,858 8,054 7,882 8,010 128 2,774 9,075
May-21 7,554 7,760 7,544 7,720 7,566 7,664 98 688,424 497,654
Jul-21 7,292 7,472 7,274 7,432 7,292 7,372 80 138,428 20,903
Aug-21 7,254 7,388 7,220 7,348 7,238 7,286 48 79,233 2,926
Sep-21 7,180 7,322 7,162 7,284 7,180 7,248 68 14,588 47,846
Nov-21 7,170 7,272 7,170 7,240 7,064 7,224 160 5 38
Dec-21 – – – 7,070 7,000 7,070 70 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322