Marc Nemenoff gives his readers an insight into the decision making process of a professional trader and analyst with 35+ years of market experience. He covers the markets with which he has had the best success throughout his career with. Contact Mr. Nemenoff at (312) 264-4310
Financials: As of this writing (6:30am) March Bonds are up 1 at 172’31 up 5 ticks for the week, 10 Year notes unchanged at 137’29 up 5 for the week and 5 Year notes up 1 overnight at 126’01 about 2 higher for the week. Yields are slightly lower for the week with 2 yr. down 2 basis points at 0.12%, the 5 yr. down3 at 0.37, the 10 yr. down 1 at0.92 and the 30 yr. down4 at 1.64. Yesterday the FOMC left rates unchanged and said they will continue to be accommodative and will continue Bond and Mortgage Backed Securities purchases. I continue to have a negative bias on the 10 yr. and 30 yr. treasuries feeling that Covid virus will start coming under control now that vaccines are becoming available and that a stimulus package is nearing completion. I remain a seller in Bonds.
Grains: March Corn is currently 2’0 lower at 425’0 down 1’6 for the week, Jan. beans down 2’0 at 1181’0 up 29’0 for the week and Mar. Wheat up 4’0 at 602’0 up 7’0 for the week. Good export demand, dock worker strikes in Argentina a lack of rain and a continuing weak Dollar have all worked to support higher prices. Of note: Jan. Beans for the third time have failed to penetrate the 1200’0 level on rallies to the high 1190’s. I remain a buyer on breaks.
Cattle: Feb. LC closed 90 higher yesterday at 113.77 up 262 for the week and Mar. FC closed 107 higher at 141.97 up 317 for the week in spite of a lower trending beef mkt. Cattle on Feed Report this week. Early guesstimates: on feed 100%, placements 91% and marketings 98% of a year ago. I continue to have a negative bias but will throw in the towel should the Feeders close above 143.00
Silver: March Silver is 91 cents higher at 25.96 up $1.95 for the week. Technically mkt.is bullish having traded through the 24.80 resistance level. I still prefer the short side of Dollar Index as a proxy for the long side of Silver.
S&P: March S&P’s are currently 17.00 higher on new highs at 3711.00 up53.00 for the week. The prospect of renewed economic strength due to the Covid vaccine and a stimulus package and a weak dollar have provided underlying support. Look for continuing new highs but declining momentum. I’m not quite ready to sell but watching for signs of buy the rumor sell the fact.
Currencies: As of this writing the Mar. Euro is 78 higher at 1.2268 up 112 for the week, the Yen 56 at 0.9721 up 127 for the week, the Pound up 118 at 1.3612 up 330 for the week and the Dollar Index down 55 at 89.80 down 103 for the week. I remain a seller in the Dollar. Any short biased Pound positions should be liquidated as it appears that a Brexit deal is close at hand.
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