About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed sharply higher and made a new high close on the weekly charts. USDA surprised the market on Thursday when it released its monthly supply and demand reports. The reports showed a significant drop in production of US Cotton and much reduced US ending stocks levels. The reports were bullish and a move to the upper end of the 70 cents range is possible. Harvest is wrapping up amid drier weather conditions in West Texas and the Delta and Southeast. The weekly export sales report showed very strong demand last week. Export demand has held strong despite stay at home orders and weaker economies around the world. Traders now hope for even more demand later as the vaccines are given out and the world economies start to recover.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions except for some showers on Friday in the Delta. Temperatures should average near to below normal in the Delta and in the Southeast. Texas will have mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 69.72 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 86,544 bales, from 86,544 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 354 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7490, 7740, and 7930 March. Support is at 7350, 7250, and 7200 March, with resistance of 7470, 7500 and 7530 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 08, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 237,165
: Positions :
: 59,403 9,466 40,616 34,882 167,491 84,627 10,985 219,528 228,558: 17,637 8,607
: Changes from: December 1, 2020 (Change in open interest: -6,684) :
: -2,755 182 2,662 -444 -9,705 -5,910 -267 -6,447 -7,128: -236 444
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 25.0 4.0 17.1 14.7 70.6 35.7 4.6 92.6 96.4: 7.4 3.6
: Total Traders: 262 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 112 34 65 44 55 44 20 224 158:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower last week, partly in response to the USDA production report that showed better production of oranges in Florida than had been expected. The weather in Florida remains mostly benign. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out. The weather in Florida is good with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Showers are falling in Brazil now and these need to continue to ensure good tree health. However, it could turn warm and dry again next week. Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 112.00 and 110.00 January. Support is at 116.00, 113.00, and 110.00 January, with resistance at 120.00, 122.00, and 124.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 8, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,975 :
: Positions :
: 5,343 10,071 732 117 0 2,839 106 0 621 701 1,995 :
: Changes from: December 1, 2020 :
: 13 86 -42 9 0 43 -25 0 41 -86 271 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 38.2 72.1 5.2 0.8 0.0 20.3 0.8 0.0 4.4 5.0 14.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 49 :
: 16 12 . . 0 10 . 0 14 . 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were a little higher last week in New York but closed near unchanged in London. It has been a weather market and the weather has improved. Vietnam has harvested about a quarter of its projected production under mostly dry conditions. Central America is also drier for harvesting. Brazil is getting some rains now to improve flowering after an extended dry season. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.323 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 113.43 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers after a hurricane earlier this week. Vietnam will see some big rains. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,589 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 123.00, 127.00, and 130.00 March. Support is at 120.00, 116.00, and 113.00 March, and resistance is at 125.00, 128.00 and 129.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1310, 1290, and 1280 January, and resistance is at 1340, 1370, and 1380 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 08, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 302,555
: Positions :
: 35,799 20,625 68,012 110,179 193,248 73,893 13,621 287,884 295,505: 14,672 7,050
: Changes from: December 1, 2020 (Change in open interest: -4,097) :
: -2,059 -1,029 1,234 -1,273 -3,188 -2,154 -1,180 -4,253 -4,164: 156 67
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.8 6.8 22.5 36.4 63.9 24.4 4.5 95.2 97.7: 4.8 2.3
: Total Traders: 422 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 156 67 128 120 117 45 23 373 293:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/08/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
127,029 62,827 68,798 17,024 12,059 1,852
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 49.5% 54.2% 13.4% 9.5% 1.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
129 43 38 15 4 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
9,995 7,377 5,602 2,452 6,042 20,591
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.9% 5.8% 4.4% 1.9% 4.8% 16.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
20 19 13 8 11 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,686 4,708
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.3% 3.7%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed unchanged to a little lower last week. It has been raining in south central Brazil and the production of cane has been affected. The first half of November crush was down almost 20% from the previous year as cane production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year. The Indian government has not announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no exports are coming out of India yet. Sources told wire services that any subsidy will need to be significant to get export sales on the books. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease. Coronavirus has returned to the world and has caused some demand concerns, especially for Ethanol.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1420, 1400, and 1380 March, and resistance is at 1450, 1510, and 1530 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 394.00, 391.00, and 389.00 March, and resistance is at 401.00, 406.00, and 410.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 08, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,239,868
: Positions :
: 208,396 43,691 219,103 372,794 862,660 338,136 60,950 1,138,429 1,186,404: 101,439 53,464
: Changes from: December 1, 2020 (Change in open interest: -14,441) :
: -11,680 -55 -1,611 2,048 -6,210 -1,998 -1,233 -13,241 -9,109: -1,200 -5,332
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.8 3.5 17.7 30.1 69.6 27.3 4.9 91.8 95.7: 8.2 4.3
: Total Traders: 255 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 81 32 70 77 77 43 20 234 174:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/08/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
91,872 41,188 76,007 9,798 3,825 2,725
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 44.8% 82.7% 10.7% 4.2% 3.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
115 31 40 10 5 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
26,096 1,792 2,918 2,490 776 1,729
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
28.4% 2.0% 3.2% 2.7% 0.8% 1.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
32 5 10 7 6 8
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,928 2,100
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.4% 2.3%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed sharply lower again last week. Importers are still looking for ways to source Cocoa without paying a premium demanded by Ivory Coast and Ghana. Both countries have instituted a living wage for producers there and are looking to tax exports to pay the increased wages. Buyers have been accused of using certified stocks from the exchange instead of buying from origin. However, it looks like the exchange buying has come to a halt for now. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic. The North American and European cocoa grinds were at least 4% lower than a year ago and the Asian cocoa grind was down 10% from last year.
Overnight News: Sporadic and light showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.966 million bags. ICE said that 1 contract was tendered against December Cocoa and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,250 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2580, 2520, and 2450 March, with resistance at 2630, 2650, and 2670 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1760, 1730, and 1700 March, with resistance at 1790, 1800, and 1830 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 08, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 242,824
: Positions :
: 36,260 23,470 65,813 66,186 131,234 60,626 14,035 228,885 234,553: 13,939 8,271
: Changes from: December 1, 2020 (Change in open interest: -687) :
: -5,618 1,339 -3,863 2,231 2,316 6,104 -334 -1,146 -541: 460 -145
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.9 9.7 27.1 27.3 54.0 25.0 5.8 94.3 96.6: 5.7 3.4
: Total Traders: 212 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 71 44 65 44 42 36 18 184 144:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/08/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
==============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
246,184 140,148 179,493 23,871 14,263 8,589
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 56.9% 72.9% 9.7% 5.8% 3.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
132 46 47 11 4 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
25,749 662 14,149 4,434 619 26,053
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
10.5% 0.3% 5.7% 1.8% 0.3% 10.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
33 6 13 16 7 22
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,191 2,356
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.3% 1.0%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322