About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 14
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
KC HRW WHEAT December Dec 15, 2020 1 Dec 02, 2020
WHEAT December Dec 15, 2020 3 Dec 11, 2020
This content was published based on data and/or text from the original source. For feedback, write to csstat@dowjones.com.

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher in reaction to news that the Russian government is looking to tame food inflation inside the country by taxing and issuing new export quotas on Wheat along with some other agricultural products. US prices moved very close to international prices and US markets searched for new demand. Export demand has started to improve with the close price relationships although they are still not huge. World prices have held steady or worked a little higher even with additional supplies available to the market as Russian prices remain elevated. Australian supplies have increased as its harvest is moving forward. US weather is mixed with still dry conditions in the western Great Plains. Some precipitation was reported in the eastern Great Plains and in parts of the Midwest. Parts of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia remain dry. USDA increased export demand and cut ending stocks in its supply and demand reports released Thursday.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers starting Thursday. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 639 March. Support is at 610, 600, and 592 March, with resistance at 623, 629, and 633 March. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 602 March. Support is at 575, 567, and 557 March, with resistance at 592, 598, and 604 March. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 596 March. Support is at 570, 564, and 558 March, and resistance is at 581, 586, and 589 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 08, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 470,281
: Positions :
: 64,002 92,495 136,538 59,380 149,712 178,152 42,867 438,071 421,612: 32,210 48,669
: Changes from: December 1, 2020 (Change in open interest: -5,695) :
: 1,110 759 -2,016 -4,046 -4,114 -1,855 -174 -6,807 -5,545: 1,112 -150
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.6 19.7 29.0 12.6 31.8 37.9 9.1 93.2 89.7: 6.8 10.3
: Total Traders: 385 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 90 101 104 74 118 51 24 281 294:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 08, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 216,806
: Positions :
: 45,741 20,833 39,578 33,444 127,182 78,337 9,733 197,101 197,326: 19,705 19,480
: Changes from: December 1, 2020 (Change in open interest: -6,529) :
: -1,258 -2,903 -2,526 -1,603 -1,943 -396 156 -5,783 -7,216: -746 687
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.1 9.6 18.3 15.4 58.7 36.1 4.5 90.9 91.0: 9.1 9.0
: Total Traders: 249 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 54 44 53 60 95 35 16 184 178:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 8, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 66,499 :
: Positions :
: 28,883 37,726 2,928 738 504 11,682 9,144 2,176 4,799 1,742 2,906 :
: Changes from: December 1, 2020 :
: 343 -1,292 62 -29 281 -1,902 315 209 -521 -149 542 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 43.4 56.7 4.4 1.1 0.8 17.6 13.8 3.3 7.2 2.6 4.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 102 :
: 44 37 6 . . 11 10 4 11 . 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 8, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 50 Metric Tons :
CFTC Code #00160F Open Interest is 23,588 :
: Positions :
: 12,140 19,767 0 2,384 71 10,257 300 0 182 0 226 :
: Changes from: December 1, 2020 :
: 516 535 0 130 -20 190 0 0 182 0 226 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 51.5 83.8 0.0 10.1 0.3 43.5 1.3 0.0 0.8 0.0 1.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 31 :
: 10 19 0 . . 5 . 0 . 0 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher last week as trading reflected the lack of activity in the domestic cash market. Trading volumes have been less for the last couple of weeks. The cash market is slow and the lack of business is reflected in futures volumes traded. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions. USDA cut long grain export demand and increased ending stocks estimates in its supply and demand reports released on Thursday. The reports should have been bearish to prices but futures were able to rally anyway.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1231, 1221, and 1220 January, with resistance at 1252, 1256, and 1257 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 8, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 9,334 :
: Positions :
: 4,304 7,477 166 0 0 2,052 537 2 817 241 523 :
: Changes from: December 1, 2020 :
: 103 -348 1 0 0 -233 0 2 -81 -13 331 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 46.1 80.1 1.8 0.0 0.0 22.0 5.8 0.0 8.8 2.6 5.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 44 :
: 10 18 . 0 0 7 . . 5 . 4 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher last week but held inside the previous weeks trading range. Oats moved sharply higher again last week. Little export demand was noted from China by USDA in the weekly export sales report. It has rained in parts of Argentina and in much of Brazil in the past week. Drought could develop in Brazil and Argentina despite the rains this week as the overall weather patterns have been dry. The drought is especially serious in South America for the first Corn crop but the second crop could also be affected due to late planting in central and northern Brazil. Dry weather has delayed the Soybeans planting and that will delay the second Corn planting later. Farmers will not plant if it gets too late in the year as the rains will shut off before the crop gets mature. USDA made no changes to its supply and demand estimates released Thursday. The trade had expected more demand and less ending stocks.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 418, 414, and 409 March, and resistance is at 427, 430, and 436 March. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 330, 320, and 315 March, and resistance is at 339, 342, and 345 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 08, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,089,840
: Positions :
: 397,050 103,811 401,126 558,600 1,216,111 538,578 148,897 1,895,354 1,869,945: 194,486 219,895
: Changes from: December 1, 2020 (Change in open interest: 10,969) :
: -99 3,113 -4,355 6,564 6,317 5,925 5,526 8,035 10,601: 2,934 368
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.0 5.0 19.2 26.7 58.2 25.8 7.1 90.7 89.5: 9.3 10.5
: Total Traders: 934 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 217 138 185 369 448 51 24 728 718:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed a little lower on better rains in South America and the lack of Chinese demand for US Soybeans. China continues to buy in small amounts each day but has cancelled some contracts made to unknown destinations again in the past week. Production potential is being threatened in South America due to the lack of rainfall. The situation is most serious in central and northern Brazil, but has improved in southern Brazil and Argentina due to recent rains. These rains are leaving southern Brazil and Argentina now and will move to the north. Southern Brazil and Argentina will now turn warm and dry and this will be much more consistent with atypical La Nina pattern. The world will need very strong production from South America to meet the projected demand. The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years. Higher Soybeans prices are likely. USDA increased domestic demand for Soybeans in its monthly supply and demand updates but made no changes to export demand. Ending stocks were less, but the cut was less than the trade had expected and Soybeans started to move lower on Thursday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1143, 1138, and 1130 January, and resistance is at 1174, 1178, and 1183 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 376.00 and 363.00 January. Support is at 376.00, 366.00, and 362.00 January, and resistance is at 385.00, 392.00, and 394.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3790, 3720, and 3660 January, with resistance at 3870, 3900, and 3920 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 08, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,254,808
: Positions :
: 200,712 39,110 328,684 386,362 715,098 256,904 84,374 1,172,661 1,167,266: 82,147 87,542
: Changes from: December 1, 2020 (Change in open interest: 927) :
: -7,756 -3,046 -3,587 15,969 -5,910 -1,964 11,738 2,663 -805: -1,735 1,732
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.0 3.1 26.2 30.8 57.0 20.5 6.7 93.5 93.0: 6.5 7.0
: Total Traders: 703 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 209 117 205 224 278 52 27 571 556:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 08, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 559,365
: Positions :
: 86,050 24,172 132,057 135,855 348,199 155,387 25,763 509,350 530,192: 50,015 29,173
: Changes from: December 1, 2020 (Change in open interest: 13,756) :
: -6,128 7,729 10,288 4,231 -7,694 1,449 1,813 9,842 12,137: 3,914 1,619
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.4 4.3 23.6 24.3 62.2 27.8 4.6 91.1 94.8: 8.9 5.2
: Total Traders: 322 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 103 51 88 88 83 39 17 274 209:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 08, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 479,328
: Positions :
: 71,061 26,033 91,231 152,026 320,302 109,722 13,226 424,040 450,791: 55,288 28,537
: Changes from: December 1, 2020 (Change in open interest: 3,504) :
: -2,472 6,643 1,493 9,993 -1,349 -5,178 -1,671 3,835 5,116: -331 -1,611
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.8 5.4 19.0 31.7 66.8 22.9 2.8 88.5 94.0: 11.5 6.0
: Total Traders: 277 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 70 43 74 107 90 34 14 253 190:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher and made a new high weekly close. The market was supported late in the week by ideas of tight supplies coming down the road. MPOB released its monthly supply and demand report and noted less production. Production of most vegetable oils in the world is less this year due to a lack of production of oilseeds. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia. Palm Oil prices are relatively high right now so importers are looking at importing Soybean Oil instead due to cost and quality. Soybean Oil and Canola were higher on strong demand ideas. Soybean Oil was a follower. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option. Trends are up in Soybean Oil and in Canola. Demand for Canola has improved in recent weeks and farm selling has been less as farmers have reduced supplies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 584.00, 576.00, and 571.00 January, with resistance at 594.00, 599.00, and 601.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3590 February. Support is at 3390, 3340, and 3300 February, with resistance at 3470, 3350, and 3530 February.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 8, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 240,495 :
: Positions :
: 141,473 199,510 6,782 4,015 1,415 58,454 395 9,682 8,185 10,884 12,726 :
: Changes from: December 1, 2020 :
: 1,151 2,824 189 457 230 -929 156 927 252 -2,333 1,886 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 58.8 83.0 2.8 1.7 0.6 24.3 0.2 4.0 3.4 4.5 5.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 295 :
: 56 61 . 5 4 57 4 12 52 76 44 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week and some precipitation this weekend. Temperatures should average near to above normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
December +64 Mar +146 Dec +85 Mar +72 Jan +15 Jan N/A
January +70 Mar +90 Mar +74 Jan
February +74 Mar +90 Mar +72 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 11
WINNIPEG, Dec. 11 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 555.00 -30.07 Jan 2021 dn 0.43
Basis: Thunder Bay 628.60 35.00 Jan 2021 up 6.20
Basis: Vancouver 638.60 45.00 Jan 2021 up 6.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 942.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 887.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 812.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 760.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 945.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 890.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 815.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 762.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 930.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 815.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 3,680.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 292.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.054)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 304,331 lots, or 16.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 5,625 5,631 5,295 5,328 5,572 5,415 -157 204,236 46,475
Mar-21 5,534 5,546 5,309 5,346 5,530 5,392 -138 3,169 3,426
May-21 5,500 5,501 5,274 5,292 5,476 5,341 -135 94,163 57,069
Jul-21 5,447 5,454 5,277 5,295 5,447 5,330 -117 1,536 3,255
Sep-21 5,413 5,418 5,260 5,262 5,410 5,307 -103 1,159 2,730
Nov-21 5,150 5,178 5,067 5,120 5,231 5,129 -102 68 77
Corn
Turnover: 864,834 lots, or 22.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 2,540 2,547 2,512 2,514 2,535 2,521 -14 85,516 215,276
Mar-21 2,574 2,584 2,545 2,548 2,568 2,555 -13 18,081 43,305
May-21 2,602 2,609 2,566 2,578 2,594 2,580 -14 607,697 1,002,172
Jul-21 2,606 2,614 2,579 2,591 2,602 2,591 -11 96,897 129,754
Sep-21 2,612 2,615 2,585 2,598 2,605 2,598 -7 48,840 165,289
Nov-21 2,555 2,562 2,541 2,552 2,554 2,549 -5 7,803 7,949
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,197,624 lots, or 37.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-20 – – – 3,106 3,200 3,106 -94 0 0
Jan-21 3,034 3,052 3,023 3,046 3,049 3,039 -10 142,651 311,689
Mar-21 3,079 3,091 3,057 3,083 3,090 3,076 -14 38,476 39,264
May-21 3,082 3,120 3,078 3,112 3,116 3,101 -15 768,976 1,660,419
Jul-21 3,069 3,108 3,068 3,100 3,105 3,089 -16 128,505 59,296
Aug-21 3,130 3,161 3,124 3,153 3,159 3,146 -13 23,653 12,375
Sep-21 3,136 3,176 3,134 3,168 3,167 3,155 -12 94,926 436,701
Nov-21 3,123 3,154 3,114 3,143 3,137 3,130 -7 437 1,006
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,243,758 lots, or 83.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-20 6,530 6,700 6,150 6,700 6,684 6,596 -88 10 0
Jan-21 6,876 6,964 6,788 6,964 6,830 6,870 40 187,287 115,166
Feb-21 6,976 7,024 6,834 7,020 6,932 6,940 8 286,907 54,225
Mar-21 6,856 6,942 6,734 6,942 6,806 6,852 46 81,453 6,506
Apr-21 6,692 6,794 6,576 6,784 6,666 6,740 74 70,090 2,410
May-21 6,530 6,648 6,410 6,642 6,510 6,544 34 608,697 303,043
Jun-21 – – – 6,458 6,370 6,458 88 0 4
Jul-21 6,282 6,282 6,282 6,282 6,204 6,282 78 1 12
Aug-21 6,198 6,376 6,198 6,240 6,160 6,256 96 6 4
Sep-21 6,120 6,186 6,020 6,174 6,078 6,104 26 9,301 20,584
Oct-21 6,064 6,100 6,020 6,100 6,086 6,068 -18 5 19
Nov-21 6,064 6,064 6,064 6,064 6,062 6,064 2 1 28
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 835,563 lots, or 6.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-20 – – – 7,798 7,798 7,798 0 0 0
Jan-21 7,912 8,044 7,874 8,030 7,882 7,952 70 224,476 206,970
Mar-21 7,702 7,820 7,656 7,820 7,700 7,738 38 2,016 8,620
May-21 7,394 7,520 7,332 7,504 7,362 7,442 80 504,467 430,306
Jul-21 7,146 7,214 7,072 7,204 7,102 7,172 70 74,857 21,172
Aug-21 7,086 7,148 7,024 7,146 7,044 7,114 70 20,555 2,454
Sep-21 7,050 7,118 6,988 7,108 7,014 7,068 54 9,192 48,302
Nov-21 – – – 6,968 6,968 6,968 0 0 37
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322