Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower on speculative selling. The weather has improved after a couple of hurricanes hit the Delta and Southeast. It remains dry in West Texas and in western Kansas and eastern Colorado, but some showers are in the forecast for this weekend. Reports indicate that some Cotton could have been damaged in Georgia and the Carolinas and into eastern Virginia due to the excessive rains caused by the hurricanes. The rains and winds could have damaged fiber and blown fiber out of the bolls. Demand should stay generally weak as long as the Coronavirus is around. Shopping is hard to do and many people are still unemployed. India is also harvesting under what appear to be good conditions. Good production is expected.
Overnight News: The Delta could get scattered showers on Sunday and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal in the Delta and in the Southeast. Texas will have mostly dry conditions except for some scattered showers on Sunday and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 66.71 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 118,394 bales, from 118,304 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6900, 6870, and 6810 December, with resistance of 6990, 7040 and 7110 December.
DJ On-Call Cotton – Nov 19
As of Nov 13. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Dec 20 7,890 18,008 -10,118 8,038 10,514 -2,476
Mar 21 39,183 34,796 4,387 9,086 8,339 747
May 21 17,156 15,603 1,553 2,104 2,016 88
Jul 21 21,869 20,528 1,341 3,844 3,553 291
Oct 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 21 11,668 11,126 542 11,353 11,354 -1
Mar 22 2,031 2,031 0 212 212 0
May 22 473 473 0 26 26 0
Jul 22 348 348 0 233 233 0
Dec 22 0 0 0 1,792 1,660 132
Jul 23 0 0 0 220 220 0
Dec 23 0 0 0 227 227 0
Mar 24 0 0 0 441 441 0
Total 100,618 102,913 -2,295 37,576 38,795 -1,219
Open Open Change
Dec 20 24,787 92,627 -67,840
Mar 21 127,550 96,368 31,182
May 21 29,145 19,898 9,247
Jul 21 17,668 13,981 3,687
Oct 21 5 5 0
Dec 21 20,557 20,408 149
Mar 22 1,075 1,100 -25
May 22 255 255 0
Jul 22 385 383 2
Dec 22 825 825 0
Jul 23 1 1 0
Dec 23 0 0 0
Mar 24 0 0 0
Total 222,253 245,851 -23,598
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower on speculative selling. US prices are still low enough to keep Brazian exports flowing to Europe, but no one is sure about the Mexican export program or how big it will be and where they will sell. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out. The weather in Florida is good with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Showers are falling in Brazil now and these need to continue to ensure good tree health. Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against November contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 130.00 January. Support is at 124.00, 122.00, and 120.00 January, with resistance at 130.00, 131.00, and 134.00 January.
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York as a hurricane departed Central America and caused some cherry drop but probably not much damage to trees. London was lower as much improved weather is now expected in Vietnam after a series of typhoons passed through the country. Flooding rains were expected in western Nicaragua and western Honduras from the hurricane, then the system downgraded to a tropical storm as it moved west and hit El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico London had been better supported due to stronger demand ideas and worries about the weather in Vietnam as the country is getting too much rain now and flooding is being reported in the Central Highlands. The rains have finally ended now as the typhoons seem to have gone away. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The Brazil harvest is over. Central America is offering. The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.229 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 114.64 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers after a hurricane earlier this week. Vietnam will see some big rains. ICE said that 626 contracts were tendered for delivery against December futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 668 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 125.00 and 136.00 March. Support is at 120.00, 116.00, and 113.00 March, and resistance is at 128.00, 134.00 and 135.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1370, 1330, and 1310 January. Support is at 1390, 1370, and 1340 January, and resistance is at 1450, 1480, and 1510 January.
General Comments: New York and London were lower on speculative selling tied to a small improvement in the Brazil weather. The ISO now expects a production deficit of 3.5 million tons and many think the tight situation in the Sugar market will not resolve itself until the next Brazil harvest. Production potential is dropping in Brazil due to dry weather and is already lower in other production areas. Showers were seen in central-south Brazil which is providing temporary help to cane, but much more rain is needed. Coronavirus has returned to the US and Europe and has caused some demand concerns but vaccines coming soon could help the situation over time. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. About 45% of the crush this year will go to Sugar, from 35% last year. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year. The Indian government has not announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no exports are coming out of India yet. Sources told wire services that any subsidy will need to be significant to get export sales on the books. Traders doubt a big subsidy is coming. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Rains are moving through the country now from Vietnam and the Pacific. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1600 and 1700 March. Support is at 1520, 1500, and 1470 March, and resistance is at 1560, 1580, and 1610 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 447.00 March. Support is at 413.00, 406.00, and 404.00 March, and resistance is at 419.00, 427.00, and 430.00 March.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on short supply ideas. The harvest for the next main crop is almost done for much of West Africa and very strong production is expected. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic. The North American and European cocoa grinds were at least 4% lower than a year ago and the Asian cocoa grind was down 10% from last year. Demand could increase as vaccines against the Coronavirus become available. Wire reports indicate that some users are taking Cocoa off the exchange to avoid paying government instituted premiums in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.183 million bags. ICE said that 93 contracts were tendered against December Cocoa and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,034 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2580 and 2670 March. Support is at 2470, 2370, and 2320 March, with resistance at 2530, 2610, and 2680 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1760 March. Support is at 1650, 1630, and 1610 March, with resistance at 1720, 1740, and 1770 March.