About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Nov 19
For the week ended Nov 12, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 192.4 0.0 17249.8 15614.6 5673.0 187.0
hrw 27.5 0.0 6213.4 5794.4 1567.2 22.0
srw 2.1 0.0 1367.7 1875.5 412.9 100.0
hrs 9.1 0.0 4837.5 4289.9 1459.7 45.0
white 152.7 0.0 4287.7 2985.8 2031.5 20.0
durum 1.0 0.0 543.8 669.2 201.9 0.0
corn 1088.6 0.0 35256.1 13262.7 26826.7 747.0
soybeans 1387.7 0.0 51288.0 23596.4 28940.9 69.0
soymeal 182.1 0.0 4799.2 4709.7 3381.5 18.1
soyoil 45.1 0.0 361.1 306.7 291.0 0.0
upland cotton 131.4 0.0 9233.4 10121.4 5465.1 591.6
pima cotton 4.6 0.0 452.2 280.2 250.5 0.7
sorghum 117.9 68.0 3936.8 818.4 2995.9 327.0
barley 0.0 0.0 42.8 58.6 31.0 0.0
rice 56.3 0.0 1318.5 1766.2 678.4 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were a little higher and mostly rode higher on the strength in Corn and Soybeans. The charts show that more moves higher are likely over time. US weather is mixed with good conditions in the majority of the country but still dry conditions in the western Great Plains. Southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado remain the most dry and western Texas is also dry. Parts of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia are getting some showers too. These have been light and the condition of the crop has not improved that much. Western Australia conditions are improving after some recent rains. The demand has held well and world prices remain high. The market in Russia has remained high on limited supply as farmer hold the Wheat back due to the drought.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered snow showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 560, 538, and 530 December. Support is at 587, 580, and 576 December, with resistance at 606, 613, and 616 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 531, 512, and 511 December. Support is at 549, 538, and 536 December, with resistance at 562, 569, and 581 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 539, 524, and 523 December. Support is at 546, 544, and 540 December, and resistance is at 557, 561, and 566 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher despite the continued weak tone in the domestic cash market. The market anticipates a new tender for Rice from Iraq, but one has not come so far. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions. The harvest is mostly over in northern states with good field yields reported. Southern Louisiana and Texas are harvesting the second crop and yield reports have been good. Quality is said to be very good everywhere.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1223, 1220, and 1214 January, with resistance at 1248, 1250, and 1257 January.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Nov 18
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 16.98 10.84 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.67 11.22 0.00
Brokens 10.77 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher on South American weather concerns. There was talk of Chinese buying as well and unknown destinations did buy 140,000 tons of US Corn this week. US weather has been great for harvesting until last week with warn and dry conditions for much of the Midwest. The weather has turned cooler and a little wetter in the last week and temperatures are cool this week although it is dry. Yield reports have generally been good except for the drought and derecho areas of Iowa. Ukraine has been in drought and southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and into northern Argentina have also experienced drought.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 435 December. Support is at 417, 412, and 404 December, and resistance is at 428, 431, and 434 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 293, 291, and 290 December, and resistance is at 302, 305, and 310 December.

DJ US Ethanol Production Drops, Inventories Rise — Market Talk
11:57 ET – Production of ethanol in the US fell in the past week, dropping 15,000 barrels a day to 962,000 barrels a day, according to EIA data. Ethanol inventories rose, growing by 44,000 barrels to 20.2M barrels. The data suggests the resurgence of coronavirus nationwide is taking a bite out of gasoline consumption in the US, thus eating into ethanol usage as well. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher on ideas of new Chinese demand and on dry growing conditions in South America. The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years. Higher Soybeans prices are likely. China has not appeared in the daily sales announcements from USDA in over three weeks except for one time, but the country was a significant buyer in the weekly export sales report. China still needs to buy for crushers, but appears to have bought what was necessary for the reserve. The weather in the US is good for any remaining harvest as it was drier and cooler this week. The weather in South America is mixed. Showers and rains have fallen in northern Brazil. Southern Brazil, northern Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay have missed out on good rains but have seen a shower or two. Soybeans are actively being planted in central and northern Brazil. The dry weather is causing yield concerns.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1203 January. Support is at 1162, 1155, and 1138 January, and resistance is at 1184, 1196, and 1208 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 405.00 December. Support is at 391.00, 384.00, and 380.00 December, and resistance is at 401.00, 404.00, and 407.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3960 December. Support is at 3800, 3720, and 3660 December, with resistance at 3870, 3900, and 3930 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on weak November export data from the private sources. Chart trends are up. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. Getting workers to do the harvest remains hard and the lack of labor has been a big problem. Canola were higher on strong demand ideas and dry weather in South America. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option. Trends are up in Canola. Canola farmers have reduced selling by now so demand is chasing after fewer supplies. Harvest in the Prairies is done and yields are reported to be very strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 582.00 January.. Support is at 564.00, 560.00, and 556.00 January, with resistance at 571.00, 574.00, and 577.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 3270, 3200, and 3170 February, with resistance at 3350, 3380, and 3410 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week and rain this weekend. Temperatures should average near to below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November +70 Dec +145 Dec +84 Dec +52 Jan +15 Dec N/A
December +70 Dec +90 Dec +62 Jan
January +72 Mar +82 Mar +72 Jan

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 18
WINNIPEG, Nov. 18 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 531.20 -32.40 Jan 2021 up 4.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 594.40 25.00 Jan 2021 up 5.80
Basis: Vancouver 604.40 35.00 Jan 2021 up 5.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT, Thursday supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 897.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 857.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 792.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 747.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 900.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 860.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 795.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 750.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 900.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 775.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 3,580.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 292.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.097)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 330,360 lots, or 17.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 5,316 5,388 5,261 5,283 5,374 5,331 -43 292,023 114,540
Mar-21 5,354 5,401 5,289 5,306 5,358 5,350 -8 4,815 3,794
May-21 5,325 5,389 5,300 5,307 5,376 5,345 -31 31,018 26,933
Jul-21 5,372 5,415 5,316 5,330 5,379 5,364 -15 2,030 4,153
Sep-21 5,294 5,321 5,272 5,277 5,287 5,284 -3 474 1,193
Nov-21 – – – 5,206 5,206 5,206 0 0 6
Corn
Turnover: 779,790 lots, or 20.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 2,590 2,619 2,585 2,610 2,590 2,604 14 434,718 826,544
Mar-21 2,608 2,635 2,603 2,628 2,605 2,618 13 28,708 34,270
May-21 2,628 2,655 2,625 2,647 2,630 2,640 10 222,409 772,024
Jul-21 2,641 2,667 2,638 2,662 2,641 2,652 11 69,370 114,460
Sep-21 2,617 2,644 2,615 2,642 2,621 2,630 9 19,946 150,837
Nov-21 2,586 2,598 2,584 2,598 2,588 2,592 4 4,639 2,881
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,641,932 lots, or 52.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-20 3,145 3,164 3,104 3,145 3,136 3,145 9 154 5,158
Jan-21 3,179 3,182 3,145 3,168 3,154 3,165 11 410,787 717,751
Mar-21 3,190 3,199 3,165 3,186 3,174 3,182 8 35,121 30,696
May-21 3,181 3,194 3,163 3,182 3,176 3,179 3 942,480 1,613,409
Jul-21 3,140 3,152 3,122 3,142 3,137 3,139 2 154,751 49,463
Aug-21 3,167 3,191 3,165 3,180 3,179 3,177 -2 13,782 12,905
Sep-21 3,190 3,199 3,173 3,191 3,188 3,186 -2 84,794 303,590
Nov-21 3,145 3,170 3,145 3,154 3,158 3,156 -2 63 281
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,789,525 lots, or 12.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-20 6,870 6,998 6,836 6,980 6,786 6,908 122 139 1,926
Jan-21 6,900 7,028 6,882 6,996 6,816 6,968 152 1,047,731 386,044
Feb-21 6,760 6,922 6,760 6,892 6,724 6,862 138 383,987 34,553
Mar-21 6,704 6,858 6,688 6,834 6,656 6,774 118 112,940 6,320
Apr-21 6,590 6,734 6,590 6,710 6,542 6,690 148 79,268 2,414
May-21 6,502 6,626 6,500 6,594 6,442 6,574 132 160,536 192,950
Jun-21 6,440 6,484 6,440 6,484 6,368 6,458 90 8 7
Jul-21 6,370 6,422 6,370 6,422 6,298 6,396 98 5 16
Aug-21 – – – 6,278 6,144 6,278 134 0 10
Sep-21 6,110 6,318 6,110 6,310 6,164 6,260 96 4,891 11,347
Oct-21 6,200 6,268 6,200 6,268 6,154 6,234 80 2 19
Nov-21 6,212 6,240 6,168 6,210 6,126 6,194 68 18 11
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,488,287 lots, or 11.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-20 7,924 8,000 7,888 7,966 7,852 7,956 104 24 533
Jan-21 7,880 8,002 7,880 7,984 7,816 7,958 142 748,072 521,374
Mar-21 7,770 7,910 7,770 7,880 7,710 7,868 158 5,751 8,028
May-21 7,510 7,608 7,500 7,594 7,446 7,574 128 232,015 413,565
Jul-21 7,332 7,416 7,332 7,402 7,280 7,392 112 282,009 15,096
Aug-21 7,276 7,340 7,276 7,320 7,196 7,318 122 205,034 1,267
Sep-21 7,188 7,306 7,188 7,274 7,142 7,274 132 15,360 40,367
Nov-21 7,244 7,244 7,188 7,204 7,086 7,210 124 22 17
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322