Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton closed lower after the sharp rally on Monday. The weather has improved after a couple of hurricanes hit the Delta and Southeast. It remains dry in West Texas. Harvest is ongoing so increased rains now can only delay things and not improve conditions much. Reports indicate that some Cotton could have been damaged in Georgia and the Carolinas and into eastern Virginia due to the excessive rains caused by the hurricanes. The rains and winds could have damaged fiber and blown fiber out of the bolls. It remains very dry in West Texas but crops are at harvest there. Demand should stay generally weak as long as the Coronavirus is around. Shopping is hard to do and many people are still unemployed. India is also harvesting under what appear to be good conditions. Good production is expected.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal in the Delta and in the Southeast. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 64.35 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 113,573 bales, from 107,126 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6870, 6810, and 6780 December, with resistance of 6990, 7040 and 7110 December.
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher in the nearby months and slightly lower in deferred months. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out. The weather in Florida is good with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Showers are falling in Brazil now and these need to continue to ensure good tree health. Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against November contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 121.00 January. Support is at 122.00, 120.00, and 118.00 January, with resistance at 127.00, 128.00, and 130.00 January.
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York as a hurricane threatened Central America and is a category 5 storm. London was lower as a typhoon passed through Vietnam and as much improved weather is now expected there. Both markets have completed bottom formations on the charts. London had been better supported due to stronger demand ideas and worries about the weather in Vietnam as the country is getting too much rain now and flooding is being reported in the Central Highlands. The rains should finally start to end now as the typhoons seem to have gone away. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The Brazil harvest is over. Central America is also offering. The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.206 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 112.64 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers after a hurricane earlier this week. Vietnam will see some big rains.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 120.00 December. Support is at 111.00, 108.00, and 104.00 December, and resistance is at 120.00, 128.00 and 130.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1430, 1480, and 1750 January. Support is at 1390, 1370, and 1340 January, and resistance is at 1430, 1450, and 1480 January.
General Comments: New York and London were higher and both markets made new highs for the move. The ISO now expects a production deficit of 3.5 million tons and many think the tight situation in the Sugar market will not resolve itself until the next Brazil harvest. Coronavirus has returned to the US and Europe and has caused some demand concerns but vaccines coming soon could help the situation over time. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. About 45% of the crush this year will go to Sugar, from 35% last year. Rains are falling now to improve Sugarcane growing conditions. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year. The Indian government has not announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no exports are coming out of India yet. Sources told wire services that any subsidy will need to be significant to get export sales on the books. Traders doubt a big subsidy is coming. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Rains are moving through the country now from Vietnam and the Pacific. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1600 and 1700 March. Support is at 1520, 1500, and 1470 March, and resistance is at 1560, 1580, and 1610 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 447.00 March. Support is at 406.00, 404.00, and 401.00 March, and resistance is at 427.00, 430.00, and 433.00 March.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on improved demand ideas and on unrest in Ivory Coast. The harvest for the next main crop is almost done for much of West Africa and very strong production is expected. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic. The North American and European cocoa grinds were at least 4% lower than a year ago and the Asian cocoa grind was down 10% from last year. Demand could increase as vaccines against the Coronavirus become available.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.216 million bags. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered against December Cocoa and that total deliveries for the month are now 937 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2580 and 2670 March. Support is at 2470, 2370, and 2320 March, with resistance at 2530, 2610, and 2680 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1760 March. Support is at 1650, 1630, and 1610 March, with resistance at 1720, 1740, and 1770 March.