About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were a little lower on slightly weaker world values. Russia has declined to put quotas on its export program until the middle of February. The charts show that more moves higher are likely over time. US weather is mixed with good conditions in the majority of the country but still dry conditions in the western Great Plains. Southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado remain the most dry. Parts of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia are getting some showers too. These have been light and the condition of the crop has not improved that much. Western Australia conditions are improving after some recent rains. The demand has held well and world prices remain high. The market in Russia has remained high on limited supply as farmer hold the Wheat back due to the drought.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered snow showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 560, 538, and 530 December. Support is at 587, 580, and 576 December, with resistance at 613, 616, and 626 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 531, 512, and 511 December. Support is at 538, 536, and 534 December, with resistance at 562, 569, and 581 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 539, 524, and 523 December. Support is at 546, 544, and 540 December, and resistance is at 557, 561, and 566 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher despite the continued weak tone in the domestic cash market. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions. The harvest is mostly over in northern states with good field yields reported. Southern Louisiana and Texas are harvesting the second crop and yield reports have been good. Quality is said to be very good everywhere.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1223, 1220, and 1214 January, with resistance at 1242, 1248, and 1250 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher as funds did not add to long positions last week and now have more room to buy more contracts. There was talk of Chinese buying as well. Futures moved to new highs for the move. US weather has been great for harvesting until last week with warn and dry conditions for much of the Midwest. The weather has turned cooler and a little wetter in the last week and temperatures are cool this week although it is dry. Yield reports have generally been good except for the drought and derecho areas of Iowa. Ukraine has been in drought and southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and into northern Argentina have also experienced drought.
Overnight News: USDA said that unknown destinations bought 140,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 435 December. Support is at 412, 404, and 402 December, and resistance is at 422, 428, and 431 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 293, 291, and 290 December, and resistance is at 302, 305, and 310 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher on ideas of new Chinese demand and on reports of less than expected fund buying last week. The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years. Higher Soybeans prices are likely. China has not appeared in the daily sales announcements from USDA in over three weeks except for one time, but the country was a significant buyer in the weekly export sales report. China still needs to buy for crushers, but appears to have bought what was necessary for the reserve. The weather in the US is good for any remaining harvest as it was drier and cooler last week. The weather in South America is mixed. Showers and rains have fallen in northern Brazil. Southern Brazil, northern Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay have missed out on good rains but have seen a shower or two. Soybeans are actively being planted in central and northern Brazil.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1179 and 1203 January. Support is at 1155, 1138, and 1130 January, and resistance is at 1178, 1184, and 1196 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 405.00o December. Support is at 391.00, 384.00, and 380.00 December, and resistance is at 393.00, 401.00, and 404.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3860 and 3960 December. Support is at 3720, 3660, and 3610 December, with resistance at 3810, 3840, and 3850 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on weak November export data from the private sources. Chart trends are up. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. Getting workers to do the harvest remains hard and the lack of labor has been a big problem. Canola were higher on weaker US and world production estimates and strong demand ideas. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option. Trends are up in Canola. Canola farmers have reduced selling by now so demand is chasing after fewer supplies. Harvest in the Prairies is done and yields are reported to be very strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 582.00 January.. Support is at 556.00, 552.00, and 546.00 January, with resistance at 565.00, 568.00, and 572.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 3270, 3200, and 3170 February, with resistance at 3350, 3380, and 3410 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week and rain this weekend. Temperatures should average near to below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November +70 Dec +145 Dec +84 Dec +52 Jan +15 Dec N/A
December +70 Dec +90 Dec +62 Jan
January +72 Mar +82 Mar +72 Jan

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 17
WINNIPEG, Nov. 17 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing cash canola
prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 526.90 -32.40 Jan 2021 dn 1.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 588.60 25.00 Jan 2021 up 4.30
Basis: Vancouver 598.60 35.00 Jan 2021 up 4.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT, Wednesday supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 892.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 857.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 787.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 742.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 895.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 860.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 790.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 745.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 900.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 765.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 3,560.00 +60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 288.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0850)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 253,534 lots, or 1.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 5,391 5,416 5,331 5,362 5,358 5,374 16 220,761 119,751
Mar-21 5,383 5,391 5,333 5,358 5,332 5,358 26 4,314 3,626
May-21 5,374 5,400 5,347 5,380 5,358 5,376 18 26,559 26,341
Jul-21 5,402 5,408 5,360 5,388 5,367 5,379 12 1,512 3,973
Sep-21 5,271 5,303 5,271 5,294 5,253 5,287 34 379 1,202
Nov-21 5,204 5,212 5,204 5,206 5,178 5,206 28 9 6
Corn
Turnover: 763,029 lots, or 19.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 2,597 2,603 2,581 2,590 2,591 2,590 -1 412,480 827,016
Mar-21 2,612 2,617 2,598 2,607 2,605 2,605 0 38,674 34,982
May-21 2,636 2,642 2,622 2,629 2,628 2,630 2 220,919 756,844
Jul-21 2,642 2,649 2,633 2,640 2,632 2,641 9 63,946 112,978
Sep-21 2,620 2,628 2,615 2,617 2,613 2,621 8 18,647 150,149
Nov-21 2,593 2,599 2,581 2,585 2,582 2,588 6 8,363 2,575
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,029,754 lots, or 64.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-20 3,119 3,160 3,110 3,151 3,107 3,136 29 237 5,153
Jan-21 3,136 3,183 3,127 3,170 3,122 3,154 32 541,331 745,338
Mar-21 3,161 3,203 3,145 3,182 3,142 3,174 32 54,970 30,661
May-21 3,175 3,196 3,153 3,171 3,152 3,176 24 1,199,779 1,572,646
Jul-21 3,137 3,151 3,120 3,134 3,127 3,137 10 99,630 49,373
Aug-21 3,173 3,198 3,163 3,173 3,172 3,179 7 15,176 12,775
Sep-21 3,200 3,209 3,169 3,179 3,181 3,188 7 118,322 293,166
Nov-21 3,172 3,178 3,134 3,141 3,144 3,158 14 309 282
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,408,770 lots, or 94.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-20 6,804 6,820 6,750 6,804 6,754 6,786 32 31 1,932
Jan-21 6,812 6,846 6,784 6,814 6,788 6,816 28 860,532 373,122
Feb-21 6,738 6,752 6,692 6,708 6,698 6,724 26 265,959 33,771
Mar-21 6,694 6,694 6,610 6,636 6,630 6,656 26 88,285 5,615
Apr-21 6,556 6,572 6,514 6,522 6,546 6,542 -4 74,898 2,324
May-21 6,432 6,472 6,408 6,436 6,394 6,442 48 115,109 188,718
Jun-21 6,398 6,398 6,332 6,332 6,344 6,368 24 11 11
Jul-21 6,310 6,310 6,292 6,294 6,226 6,298 72 6 15
Aug-21 – – – 6,144 6,092 6,144 52 0 10
Sep-21 6,160 6,202 6,126 6,126 6,112 6,164 52 3,932 10,481
Oct-21 6,140 6,168 6,140 6,154 6,068 6,154 86 3 20
Nov-21 6,126 6,126 6,126 6,126 6,044 6,126 82 4 4
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 992,983 lots, or 76.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-20 7,882 7,938 7,824 7,836 7,794 7,852 58 25 532
Jan-21 7,826 7,848 7,766 7,832 7,774 7,816 42 688,691 534,065
Mar-21 7,732 7,738 7,670 7,720 7,654 7,710 56 9,172 7,752
May-21 7,432 7,482 7,412 7,454 7,384 7,446 62 225,117 409,236
Jul-21 7,268 7,314 7,246 7,294 7,206 7,280 74 48,238 14,061
Aug-21 7,182 7,230 7,164 7,214 7,110 7,196 86 5,227 958
Sep-21 7,102 7,184 7,102 7,162 7,058 7,142 84 16,510 36,182
Nov-21 7,100 7,100 7,078 7,080 6,954 7,086 132 3 2
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322