Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton closed little changed for the week. The weather has improved after a couple of hurricanes hit the Delta and Southeast. It remains dry in West Texas. Harvest is ongoing so increased rains now can only delay things and not improve conditions much. Reports indicate that some Cotton could have been damaged in Georgia and the Carolinas and into eastern Virginia due to the excessive rains caused by the hurricanes. The rains and winds could have damaged fiber and blown fiber out of the bolls. The weekly export sales report showed better demand last week and included new demand for China. Demand should stay generally weak as long as the Coronavirus is around. Shopping is hard to do and many people are still unemployed. India is also harvesting under what appear to be good conditions. Good production is expected.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal in the Delta and in the Southeast. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 64.35 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 107,126 bales, from 100,182 bales yesterday. USDA said that Cotton is now 69% harvested, from 61% last week, 66% last year, and 64% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6870, 6810, and 6780 December, with resistance of 7080, 7110 and 7180 December.
General Comments: FCOJ was higher. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out. The weather in Florida is good with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Showers are falling in Brazil now and these need to continue to ensure good tree health. Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against November contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 121.00 January. Support is at 122.00, 120.00, and 118.00 January, with resistance at 128.00, 131.00, and 133.00 January.
General Comments: Futures were higher as a hurricane threatened Central America and could be a category 5 storm. Both markets have completed bottom formations on the charts. London had been better supported due to stronger demand ideas and worries about the weather in Vietnam as the country is getting too much rain now and flooding is being reported in the Central Highlands. The rains should finally start to end now as the typhoons seem to have gone away. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The Brazil harvest is over and producers are selling due to the recent extreme weakness in the Real. Ideas are that production is very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. Central America is also offering right now and offers are increasing. The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.200 million bags. GCA stcks are now 6.137 million bags, from 6.402 million last month. The ICO daily average price is now 110.38 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers after a hurricane earlier this week. Vietnam will see some big rains.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 120.00 December. Support is at 111.00, 108.00, and 104.00 December, and resistance is at 120.00, 128.00 and 130.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1430, 1480, and 1750 January. Support is at 1390, 1370, and 1340 January, and resistance is at 1430, 1450, and 1480 January.
General Comments: New York and London were higher and both markets made new highs for the move. The move came on news of more potential vaccines for the Coronavirus. Coronavirus has returned to the US and Europe and has caused some demand concerns. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. About 45% of the crush this year will go to Sugar, from 35% last year. Rains are falling now to improve Sugarcane growing conditions. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year. The Indian government has not announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no exports are coming out of India yet. Sources told wire services that any subsidy will need to be significant to get export sales on the books. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Rains are moving through the country now from Vietnam and the Pacific. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1600 and 1700 March. Support is at 1520, 1500, and 1470 March, and resistance is at 1550, 1580, and 1610 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 424.00 and 447.00 March. Support is at 415.00, 412.00, and 409.00 March, and resistance is at 424.00, 427.00, and 430.00 March.
General Comments: New York closed sharply higher and London closed higher. The move in New York came on more news of potential vaccines for the Coronavirus. The harvest for the next main crop is almost done for much of West Africa and very strong production is expected. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic. The North American and European cocoa grinds were at least 4% lower than a year ago and the Asian cocoa grind was down 10% from last year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.239 million bags. ICE said that 560 contracts were tendered against December Cocoa and that total deliveries for the month are now 937 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2550, 2500, and 2420 December, with resistance at 2650, 2690, and 2720 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1630, 1620, and 1600 December, with resistance at 1670, 1710, and 1810 December.