About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed little changed for the week. The weather has improved after a couple of hurricanes hit the Delta and Southeast. It remains dry in West Texas. Harvest is ongoing so increased rains now can only delay things and not improve conditions much. Reports indicate that some Cotton could have been damaged in Georgia and the Carolinas and into eastern Virginia due to the excessive rains caused by the hurricanes. The rains and winds could have damaged fiber and blown fiber out of the bolls. The weekly export sales report showed better demand last week and included new demand for China. Demand should stay generally weak as long as the Coronavirus is around. Shopping is hard to do and many people are still unemployed. India is also harvesting under what appear to be good conditions. Good production is expected.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal in the Delta and in the Southeast. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 64.35 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 100,182 bales, from 93,631 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6810, 6780, and 6670 December, with resistance of 6930, 7080 and 7110 December.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Nov 13
As of Nov 7. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Dec 20 18,008 20,729 -2,721 10,514 10,727 -213
Mar 21 34,796 33,947 849 8,339 9,105 -766
May 21 15,603 14,119 1,484 2,016 1,806 210
Jul 21 20,528 18,591 1,937 3,553 3,245 308
Oct 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 21 11,126 10,909 217 11,354 11,310 44
Mar 22 2,031 2,009 22 212 212 0
May 22 473 473 0 26 26 0
Jul 22 348 348 0 233 233 0
Dec 22 0 0 0 1,660 1,660 0
Jul 23 0 0 0 220 220 0
Dec 23 0 0 0 227 227 0
Mar 24 0 0 0 441 441 0
Total 102,913 101,125 1,788 38,795 39,212 -417
Open Open Change
Int Int
Dec 20 92,627 111,976 -19,349
Mar 21 96,368 85,343 11,025
May 21 19,898 16,030 3,868
Jul 21 13,981 11,545 2,436
Oct 21 5 6 -1
Dec 21 20,408 19,943 465
Mar 22 1,100 1,094 6
May 22 255 254 1
Jul 22 383 379 4
Dec 22 825 888 -63
Jul 23 1 1 0
Dec 23 0 0 0
Mar 24 0 0 0
Total 245,851 247,459 -1,608

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher last week. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is dining out. The weather in Florida is good with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Showers are falling in Brazil now and these need to continue to ensure good tree health. Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against November contracts and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 121.00 January. Support is at 120.00, 118.00, and 116.00 January, with resistance at 125.00, 126.00, and 128.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher last week with London the stronger market. Both markets are trying to complete bottom formations on the charts. London had been better supported due to stronger demand ideas and worries about the weather in Vietnam as the country is getting too much rain now and flooding is being reported in the Central Highlands. The rains should finally start to end now as the typhoons seem to have gone away. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The Brazil harvest is over and producers are selling due to the recent extreme weakness in the Real. Ideas are that production is very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. Central America is also offering right now and offers are increasing. The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.197 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 108.18 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers after a hurricane earlier this week. Vietnam will see some big rains.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 112.00, 114.00, and 120.00 December. Support is at 108.00, 104.00, and 102.00 December, and resistance is at 111.00, 112.00 and 115.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1430, 1480, and 1750 January. Support is at 1390, 1370, and 1340 January, and resistance is at 1430, 1450, and 1480 January.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/10/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
124,959 61,244 62,334 15,917 12,920 1,625
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 49.0% 49.9% 12.7% 10.3% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
124 43 38 10 5 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
9,003 13,058 3,632 4,755 3,927 23,265
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.2% 10.4% 2.9% 3.8% 3.1% 18.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
19 18 11 7 11 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,518 4,198
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.4% 3.4%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher and both markets made new highs for the move. London made a new high close for the move. Coronavirus has returned to the US and Europe and has caused some demand concerns. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. About 45% of the crush this year will go to Sugar, from 35% last year. Rains are falling now to improve Sugarcane growing conditions. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year. The Indian government has not announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no exports are coming out of India yet. Sources told wire services that any subsidy will need to be significant to get export sales on the books. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Rains are moving through the country now from Vietnam and the Pacific. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1470, 1440, and 1430 March, and resistance is at 1500, 1550, and 1580 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 424.00 and 447.00 March. Support is at 404.00, 401.00, and 397.00 March, and resistance is at 409.00, 412.00, and 415.00 March.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/10/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
100,433 48,827 82,529 10,339 5,236 1,902
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 48.6% 82.2% 10.3% 5.2% 1.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
109 32 38 9 6 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
25,232 1,647 3,832 3,119 856 1,890
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
25.1% 1.6% 3.8% 3.1% 0.9% 1.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
29 4 11 7 5 9
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,292 2,541
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.3% 2.5%

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed sharply higher, with NY December sharply higher on Friday. London closed a little lower. The move in New York was a surprise as the market had shown little life until Friday. The harvest for the next main crop is almost done for much of West Africa and very strong production is expected. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic. The North American and European cocoa grinds were at least 4% lower than a year ago and the Asian cocoa grind was down 10% from last year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.253 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2320, 2290, and 2240 December, with resistance at 2370, 2420, and 2470 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1570, 1540, and 1510 December, with resistance at 1630, 1650, and 1670 December.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/10/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
==============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
275,677 159,477 182,994 39,999 17,445 11,084
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 57.8% 66.4% 14.5% 6.3% 4.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
133 48 49 13 6 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
13,509 14,050 9,679 3,434 1,069 35,200
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.9% 5.1% 3.5% 1.2% 0.4% 12.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
19 16 11 14 10 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,295 4,156
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.2% 1.5%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322