About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 16
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov 17, 2020 3 Nov 13, 2020
SOYBEAN November Nov 17, 2020 113 Nov 13, 2020
This content was published based on data and/or text from the original source. For feedback, write to csstat@dowjones.com.

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower and made new lows for the move on news of additional export potential from Russia. Russia has declined to put quotas on its export program until the middle of February. The charts show that more moves higher are likely over time. US weather is mixed with good conditions in the majority of the country but still dry conditions in the western Great Plains. Southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado remain the most dry. It was cool last week. Parts of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia are getting some showers too. These have been light and the condition of the crop has not improved that much. Western Australia conditions are improving after some recent rains. The demand has held well and world prices remain high. The market in Russia has remained high on limited supply as farmer hold the Wheat back due to the drought.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 560, 538, and 530 December. Support is at 587, 580, and 576 December, with resistance at 588, 613, and 616 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 531, 512, and 511 December. Support is at 539, 536, and 534 December, with resistance at 560, 569, and 581 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 539, 524, and 523 December. Support is at 544, 540, and 535 December, and resistance is at 557, 561, and 566 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower last week in response to the USDA reports and the weak tone in the domestic cash market. Export demand was weaker again last week. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions. The harvest is mostly over in northern states with good field yields reported. Southern Louisiana and Texas are harvesting the second crop and yield reports have been good. Producers had to endure Hurricane Delta and then Zeta in Louisiana, and some of the second crop Rice got hurt. Quality is said to be very good everywhere. The USDA reports showed a little less yield and production and less export demand for long grain. Ending stocks were increased and are high.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1223, 1220, and 1214 January, with resistance at 1244, 1250, and 1257 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher last week in reaction to the USDA reports that showed a tighter ending stocks scenario than had been expected by the trade. The WASDE reports showed less US production and bigger export demand than expected. Futures moved to new highs for the move on the weekly charts, then gave back much of the rally to close with only moderate gains. US weather was great for harvesting last week with warn and dry conditions for much of the Midwest. The weather has turned cooler and a little wetter in the last week and this trend should continue for this week. Yield reports have generally been good except for the drought and derecho areas of Iowa. Ukraine has been in drought and southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and into northern Argentina have also experienced drought.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 435 December. Support is at 402, 398, and 393 December, and resistance is at 417, 422, and 428 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 279 and 260 December. Support is at 291, 290, and 286 December, and resistance is at 300, 305, and 310 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans closed higher and Soybean Meal closed a little higher in response to the latest USDA reports. WASDE showed less production and bigger demand than expected and lower than expected ending stocks at 190 million bushels. The stocks to use ration for Soybeans is now very small and the situation is the tightest projected in years. Higher Soybeans prices are likely. China has not appeared in the daily sales announcements from USDA in over three weeks except for one time, but the country was a significant buyer in the weekly export sales report. China still needs to buy for crushers, but appears to have bought what was necessary for the reserve. The weather in the US is good for any remaining harvest as it was drier and cooler last week. The weather in South America is mixed. Showers and rains have fallen in northern Brazil. Southern Brazil, northern Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay have missed out on good rains but have seen a shower or two. Soybeans are actively being planted in central and northern Brazil.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 1130, 1108, and 1104 January, and resistance is at 1162, 1172, and 1184 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 384.00, 380.00, and 375.00 December, and resistance is at 393.00, 401.00, and 404.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3770 and 3810 December. Support is at 3660, 3610, and 3570 December, with resistance at 3730, 3770, and 3800 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on ideas of decreasing production less supply available to a market with strong demand. Chart trends are up. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. Getting workers to do the harvest remains hard and the lack of labor has been a big problem. Soybean Oil and Canola were higher on weaker US and world production estimates and strong demand ideas. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option. Trends are up in Soybean Oil and in Canola. Demand for Soybean Oil has improved with India and South Korea buying significant amounts in the last week. Canola farmers have reduced selling by now so demand is chasing after fewer supplies. Harvest in the Prairies is done and yields are reported to be very strong.
Overnight News: AmSpec said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are 673,991 tons so far this month, from 763,772 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 582.00 January.. Support is at 556.00, 552.00, and 546.00 January, with resistance at 565.00, 568.00, and 572.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3440 January. Support is at 3280, 3260, and 3230 January, with resistance at 3410, 3430, and 3460 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry except for some showers this weekend. Temperatures should average near to below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November +70 Dec +152 Dec +77 Dec +50 Jan +15 Dec N/A
December +70 Dec +82 Dec +70 Jan
January +72 Mar +82 Mar +70 Jan

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 13
WINNIPEG, Nov. 13 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the
closing cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 527.50 -32.40 Jan 2021 up 0.50
Basis: Thunder Bay 585.50 25.00 Jan 2021 up 1.50
Basis: Vancouver 595.50 35.00 Jan 2021 up 1.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT, Monday supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 882.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 877.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 840.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 770.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 885.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 880.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 842.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 772.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 885.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 755.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 3,520.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 288.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.113)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 214,821 lots, or 1.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 5,350 5,388 5,318 5,332 5,303 5,343 40 195,334 123,050
Mar-21 5,308 5,350 5,289 5,322 5,289 5,308 19 2,390 3,130
May-21 5,315 5,348 5,299 5,335 5,292 5,323 31 15,202 23,599
Jul-21 5,351 5,351 5,297 5,335 5,293 5,323 30 1,669 3,505
Sep-21 5,215 5,243 5,215 5,242 5,216 5,231 15 221 1,064
Nov-21 5,162 5,241 5,162 5,192 5,216 5,184 -32 5 3
Corn
Turnover: 1,136,639 lots, or 2.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-21 2,565 2,611 2,562 2,592 2,561 2,589 28 620,047 910,594
Mar-21 2,580 2,622 2,575 2,604 2,574 2,599 25 35,501 32,160
May-21 2,596 2,644 2,595 2,624 2,594 2,621 27 317,374 676,983
Jul-21 2,608 2,642 2,603 2,626 2,603 2,622 19 107,229 108,094
Sep-21 2,589 2,620 2,586 2,604 2,589 2,602 13 40,336 143,514
Nov-21 2,539 2,599 2,459 2,578 2,589 2,559 -30 16,152 2,060
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,209,325 lots, or 69.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-20 3,171 3,171 3,099 3,101 3,171 3,137 -34 1,355 4,976
Jan-21 3,170 3,182 3,116 3,121 3,179 3,144 -35 729,366 816,455
Mar-21 3,182 3,195 3,136 3,141 3,192 3,165 -27 42,830 30,590
May-21 3,170 3,188 3,133 3,146 3,166 3,161 -5 1,105,125 1,531,315
Jul-21 3,137 3,154 3,110 3,121 3,142 3,133 -9 155,344 52,057
Aug-21 3,186 3,201 3,156 3,166 3,180 3,178 -2 66,334 12,934
Sep-21 3,190 3,209 3,162 3,173 3,190 3,189 -1 108,850 278,917
Nov-21 3,199 3,251 3,130 3,140 3,190 3,172 -18 121 70
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,740,302 lots, or 11.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-20 6,608 6,694 6,536 6,674 6,624 6,656 32 593 1,926
Jan-21 6,684 6,782 6,632 6,730 6,650 6,710 60 1,220,976 371,259
Feb-21 6,678 6,722 6,590 6,638 6,660 6,652 -8 228,515 32,796
Mar-21 6,620 6,672 6,546 6,590 6,640 6,598 -42 81,950 5,977
Apr-21 6,490 6,550 6,418 6,478 6,480 6,484 4 56,527 2,412
May-21 6,352 6,426 6,294 6,330 6,328 6,342 14 148,503 178,997
Jun-21 – – – 6,260 6,260 6,260 0 0 12
Jul-21 6,142 6,272 6,130 6,194 6,146 6,218 72 67 17
Aug-21 – – – 6,032 6,012 6,032 20 0 10
Sep-21 6,048 6,128 6,014 6,030 6,022 6,056 34 3,169 8,174
Oct-21 6,026 6,026 6,022 6,022 6,024 6,024 0 2 21
Nov-21 – – – 6,024 6,024 6,024 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,381,283 lots, or 10.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-20 7,660 7,810 7,660 7,796 7,594 7,750 156 24 548
Jan-21 7,640 7,780 7,620 7,742 7,586 7,716 130 983,871 549,174
Mar-21 7,564 7,644 7,546 7,602 7,520 7,600 80 17,710 7,514
May-21 7,282 7,350 7,262 7,320 7,246 7,314 68 214,541 381,371
Jul-21 7,112 7,182 7,096 7,150 7,086 7,152 66 100,033 13,491
Aug-21 7,018 7,088 7,014 7,066 7,010 7,070 60 53,789 1,136
Sep-21 6,978 7,048 6,958 7,012 6,954 6,998 44 11,315 32,176
Nov-21 – – – 6,954 6,954 6,954 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322