About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 13
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN November Nov 16, 2020 4 Nov 05, 2020
This content was published based on data and/or text from the original source. For feedback, write to csstat@dowjones.com.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Nov 13
For the week ended Nov 5, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 300.5 0.0 17057.5 15177.0 5751.1 187.0
hrw 68.3 0.0 6185.9 5551.9 1600.6 22.0
srw 9.2 0.0 1365.5 1845.4 420.9 100.0
hrs 103.3 0.0 4828.4 4192.8 1553.8 45.0
white 118.0 0.0 4135.0 2917.5 1973.2 20.0
durum 1.8 0.0 542.7 669.6 202.7 0.0
corn 978.3 0.0 34167.5 12474.6 26582.7 747.0
soybeans 1468.5 0.0 49900.3 22137.6 30111.6 69.0
soymeal 145.3 0.0 4617.1 4513.3 3517.2 18.1
soyoil 88.0 0.0 316.0 267.5 248.8 0.0
upland cotton 236.8 14.8 9102.1 9893.8 5611.1 591.6
pima cotton 20.3 0.0 447.6 273.1 265.0 0.7
sorghum 177.2 0.0 3818.9 819.0 3132.9 259.0
barley 0.8 0.0 42.8 58.6 31.0 0.0
rice 31.9 0.0 1262.2 1669.9 707.6 0.0
Write to Rodney Christian at csstat@dowjones.com

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on news that Russia would not institute a quota system for exports until at least mid February. The market had expected the quota to be instituted very soon, but the Russian move means that the country feels it has enough Wheat to permit additional exports of any volume. The move could hurt demand for US Wheat over time. USDA did not change US production but did cut ending stocks due to a slight increase in demand. US weather is much improved with some precipitation reported in parts of the western Great Plains. Only southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado remain dry. It was very warm last week, but wetter and cooler weather is expected this week. Parts of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia are getting some light showers. Western Australia conditions are improving. The rains in the midwestern parts of the US are the most substantial and will have helped solve the longer term drought problem out there. The showers in Ukraine and Russia are too late to give much help, but some plants will become better established. The demand has held well and world prices remain high. The market in Russia has remained high on limited supply as farmer hold the Wheat back due to the drought.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered snow showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 560, 538, and 530 December. Support is at 587, 576, and 561 December, with resistance at 588, 613, and 616 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 531, 512, and 511 December. Support is at 536, 534, and 529 December, with resistance at 551, 560, and 569 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 539, 524, and 523 December. Support is at 547, 540, and 535 December, and resistance is at 557, 561, and 566 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower as the market started to search for demand. Cash markets have been quiet on both the domestic and export fronts. USDA cut production slightly and cut exports by a bigger amount to highlight the demand problems. The report should have been a little negative for futures. Export demand has been strong in general but was very weak last week. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions. The harvest is mostly over in northern states with good field yields reported. Southern Louisiana and Texas are harvesting the second crop and yield reports have been good in areas not hit by the hurricanes. Quality is said to be very good everywhere
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1223, 1220, and 1214 January, with resistance at 1244, 1250, and 1257 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower on speculative long liquidation. The USDA reports still affected the trade, but the weakness in Wheat futures hurt the price action. USDA cut production and increased demand to make ending stocks estimates near 1.7 billion bushels and well below all trade estimates. Traders expected USDA to show less production for the US and potentially also in Ukraine and South America, but the magnitude of the cuts to ending stocks was a total surprise. US weather was great for harvesting last week with warm and dry conditions for much of the Midwest. It has turned cooler, but not cold, now, and remains dry after some showers and storms moved through the region on Tuesday. It should now be dry with near to below normal temperatures. Yield reports have generally been good except for the drought and derecho areas of Iowa. Ukraine has been in drought and southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and into northern Argentina have also experienced drought.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 435 December. Support is at 402, 398, and 393 December, and resistance is at 417, 422, and 428 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 298, 296, and 291 December, and resistance is at 305, 310, and 312 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and both products closed lower on speculative long liquidation even though the dry conditions in South America continue. USDA showed decreased production and increased demand to put ending stocks estimates well below all trade ideas. The direction of the USDA reports was not a surprise but the magnitude of the drop in ending stocks was. China had not appeared in the daily sales announcements from USDA in over two weeks. China still needs to buy for crushers, but appears to have bought what was necessary for the reserve. The weather in the US is good for any remaining harvest as it was drier and warmer last week. It rained yesterday in much of the Midwest and temperatures have cooled to near normal levels. Drier but cooler weather is now in the forecast. The weather in South America is improved but it is still very dry overall. Showers and rains have fallen in most of Brazil and much of Argentina. Southern Brazil and Paraguay have missed out on the good rains but did get a few showers. Soybeans are actively being planted in central and northern Brazil but conditions have been mixed, with some areas getting good rains but many areas still dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 1108, 1100, and 1080 January, and resistance is at 1162, 1172, and 1184 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 384.00, 380.00, and 375.00 December, and resistance is at 393.00, 401.00, and 404.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3770 and 3810 December. Support is at 3610, 3570, and 3520 December, with resistance at 3730, 3770, and 3800 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on ideas of tight supplies that will get tighter in the coming months. Chart trends are up. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. Getting workers to do the harvest remains hard and the lack of labor has been a big problem. Canola was mixed on the weakness in Chicago. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Canola oil the better option. Trends are mostly up in Canola. Canola farmers have reduced selling by now so demand is chasing after fewer supplies. Harvest in the Prairies is done and yields are reported to be very strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 563.00 January.. Support is at 556.00, 552.00, and 546.00 January, with resistance at 562.00, 565.00, and 568.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3440 January. Support is at 3280, 3230, and 3160 January, with resistance at 3400, 3430, and 3460 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry except for some showers this weekend. Temperatures should average near to below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November +70 Dec +152 Dec +77 Dec +50 Jan +15 Dec N/A
December +70 Dec +82 Dec +70 Jan
January +72 Mar +82 Mar +70 Jan

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 10
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 525.50 -23.00 Jan 2021 up 7.50
Basis: Thunder Bay 583.40 25.00 Jan 2021 up 12.50
Basis: Vancouver 593.40 35.00 Jan 2021 up 12.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT, Friday supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 882.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 877.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 830.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 767.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 885.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 880.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 832.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 770.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 885.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 755.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 3,520.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 273.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1220)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 263,879 lots, or 1.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 – – – 5,183 5,187 5,183 -4 0 0
Jan-21 5,325 5,359 5,256 5,342 5,325 5,303 -22 243,347 136,174
Mar-21 5,302 5,323 5,243 5,316 5,295 5,289 -6 2,129 3,203
May-21 5,309 5,327 5,265 5,308 5,292 5,292 0 16,704 21,615
Jul-21 5,286 5,321 5,276 5,308 5,291 5,293 2 1,577 3,194
Sep-21 5,230 5,232 5,197 5,223 5,221 5,216 -5 122 967
Corn
Turnover: 726,542 lots, or 18.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 2,534 2,534 2,534 2,534 2,495 2,526 31 957 0
Jan-21 2,559 2,572 2,550 2,564 2,554 2,561 7 411,208 938,413
Mar-21 2,566 2,583 2,565 2,577 2,570 2,574 4 25,938 33,594
May-21 2,588 2,602 2,584 2,596 2,586 2,594 8 171,567 628,077
Jul-21 2,597 2,610 2,596 2,606 2,600 2,603 3 95,785 109,501
Sep-21 2,582 2,595 2,582 2,593 2,588 2,589 1 21,087 130,844
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,927,873 lots, or 61.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 – – – 3,163 3,125 3,163 38 0 0
Dec-20 3,180 3,202 3,143 3,149 3,220 3,171 -49 5,087 4,501
Jan-21 3,200 3,208 3,154 3,163 3,220 3,179 -41 606,534 904,790
Mar-21 3,213 3,217 3,169 3,177 3,233 3,192 -41 26,378 27,695
May-21 3,180 3,193 3,143 3,159 3,198 3,166 -32 965,410 1,489,255
Jul-21 3,135 3,154 3,117 3,127 3,152 3,142 -10 203,065 51,285
Aug-21 3,193 3,201 3,165 3,177 3,202 3,180 -22 15,978 13,046
Sep-21 3,201 3,208 3,173 3,184 3,209 3,190 -19 105,421 268,760
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,443,751 lots, or 95.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 – – – 7,100 7,100 7,100 0 0 0
Dec-20 6,618 6,700 6,542 6,598 6,642 6,624 -18 599 1,934
Jan-21 6,650 6,710 6,576 6,670 6,638 6,650 12 1,063,443 377,703
Feb-21 6,640 6,704 6,604 6,668 6,590 6,660 70 182,839 34,239
Mar-21 6,542 6,674 6,542 6,632 6,508 6,640 132 58,901 6,470
Apr-21 6,442 6,520 6,436 6,494 6,408 6,480 72 35,751 2,616
May-21 6,316 6,370 6,284 6,340 6,306 6,328 22 97,819 179,308
Jun-21 6,222 6,284 6,222 6,274 6,124 6,260 136 3 12
Jul-21 6,128 6,178 6,102 6,142 6,124 6,146 22 25 16
Aug-21 – – – 6,012 5,894 6,012 118 0 10
Sep-21 6,000 6,056 5,980 6,038 5,984 6,022 38 4,369 7,971
Oct-21 6,002 6,046 6,002 6,046 5,980 6,024 44 2 21
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 879,310 lots, or 65.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 – – – 7,336 7,782 7,336 -446 0 0
Dec-20 7,634 7,660 7,556 7,660 7,622 7,594 -28 20 543
Jan-21 7,566 7,636 7,526 7,612 7,590 7,586 -4 643,870 515,804
Mar-21 7,490 7,556 7,474 7,530 7,524 7,520 -4 9,861 7,933
May-21 7,250 7,278 7,208 7,260 7,256 7,246 -10 143,098 379,560
Jul-21 6,976 7,114 6,976 7,096 7,092 7,086 -6 60,643 13,555
Aug-21 6,976 7,028 6,958 7,010 6,996 7,010 14 15,554 1,191
Sep-21 6,930 6,978 6,920 6,962 6,952 6,954 2 6,264 31,904
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322