Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Wheat: Winter Wheat markets were higher as the weather turned better for crop development. Prices tested resistance areas early in the week and then failed, but still closed with small gains. US weather is much improved with some precipitation reported in much of the western Great Plains. Only southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado remain dry. It was very warm last week, but wetter and cooler weather ie expected this week. Parts of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia are getting some showers too. These have been light. Western Australia is expected to get some rains this week and conditions are improving. The rains in the US are the most substantial and will have helped solve the longer term drought problem out there. The showers in Ukraine and Russia are too late to give much help, but some plants will become better established. The demand has held well and world prices remain high. The market in Russia has remained high on limited supply as farmer hold the Wheat back due to the drought.
Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures
Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures
Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures
Corn: Corn and Oats were higher last week on some great export demand in the Corn market and hopes for more great demand, especially from China. The next WASDE reports will be released tomorrow and traders expect USDA to increase export demand and cut slightly demand for ethanol production. Traders also expect USDA to show less production for the US and potentially also in Ukraine and South America. US weather was great for harvesting last week with warn and dry conditions for much of the Midwest. Yield reports have generally been good except for the drought and derecho areas of Iowa. Ukraine has been in drought and southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and into northern Argentina have also experienced drought.
Weekly Corn Futures
Weekly Oats Futures
Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher despite less Chinese demand. China has not appeared in the daily sales announcements from USDA in over two weeks now and the market is feeling the loss. China still needs to buy for crushers, but appears to have bought what was necessary for the reserve. The weather in the US is good for any remaining harvest as it was drier and warmer last week. The weather in South America is improved. Showers and rains have fallen in most of Brazil and much of Argentina. Southern Brazil and Paraguay have missed out on the good rains but did get a few showers. Soybeans are actively being planted in central and northern Brazil. The next USDA WASDE report is out tomorrow and traders look for reduced ending stocks estimates due to increased exports and slightly smaller US production.
Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures
Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures
Rice: Rice was higher in choppy trading last week. Export demand has been strong in general but was very weak last week. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions. The harvest is mostly over in northern states with good field yields reported. Southern Louisiana and Texas are harvesting the second crop and yield reports have been good. Producers had to endure Hurricane Delta and then Zeta in Louisiana, and some of the second crop Rice got hurt. Quality is said to be very good everywhere.
Weekly Chicago Rice Futures
Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil closed higher on ideas of decreasing production and private reports of stronger demand. Ideas are that MPOB can show lower ending stocks this month. Chart trends are up. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. Getting workers to do the harvest remains hard and the lack of labor has been a big problem. Soybean Oil and Canola were higher on weaker US and world production estimates and strong demand ideas. Very strong Palm Oil prices have made buying Soybean and Canola oils the better option. Trends are mostly sideways in Soybean Oil and in Canola. Canola farmers have reduced selling by now so demand is chasing after fewer supplies. The Canadian Dollar is higher but Canola is still considered relatively cheap in the world market. Harvest in the Prairies is done and yields are reported to be very strong.
Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures
Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures
Weekly Canola Futures
Cotton: Cotton closed a little lower for the week. The weather has improved after a couple of hurricanes hit the Delta and Southeast. It remains dry in West Texas. Harvest is ongoing so increased rains now can only delay things and not improve conditions much. The weekly export sales report showed weaker demand last week. There was no major Chinese demand. Demand should stay generally weak as long as the Coronavirus is around. Shopping is hard to do and many people are still unemployed. India is almso harvesting under what appear to be good conditions. Good production is expected.
Weekly US Cotton Futures
Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: FCOJ was near unchanged once again last week. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is really dining out. Florida production prospects for the new crop were hurt by an extended flowering period, but the weather is good now with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Showers are falling in Brazil now and these need to continue to ensure good tree health. Mexican crop conditions are called good with rains.
Weekly FCOJ Futures
Coffee: Futures were higher last week in New York and a little lower in London. Both markets are trying to complete bottom formations on the charts. London had been better supported due to stronger demand ideas and worries about the weather in Vietnam as the country is getting too much rain now and flooding is being reported in the Central Highlands. The rains should continue for another week. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The Brazil harvest is over and producers are selling due to the recent extreme weakness in the Real. Ideas are that production is very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. Central America is also offering right now and offers are increasing. The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.
Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures
Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures
Sugar: New York and London were higher. Coronavirus has returned to the US and Europe and has caused some demand concerns. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. About 45% of the crush this year will go to Sugar, from 35% last year. Rains are falling now to improve Sugarcane growing conditions. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but the exports have been hard to make. The Indian government will not announce the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so prices will need to rally in the world market before exporters can become involved. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Rains are moving through the country now from Vietnam and the Pacific. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease.
Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures
Weekly London White Sugar Futures
Cocoa: New York and London were lower on demand concerns caused by the return of the Coronavirus to Europe and the US. The weekly charts show that down trends are established again. The harvest for the next main crop is almost done for much of West Africa and very strong production is expected. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic. The North American and European cocoa grinds were at least 4% lower than a year ago and the Asian cocoa grind was down 10% from last year.
Weekly New York Cocoa Futures
Weekly London Cocoa Futures
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