About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 3
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov 04, 2020 1 Oct 13, 2020
SOYBEAN November Nov 04, 2020 118 Oct 19, 2020
This content was published based on data and/or text from the original source. For feedback, write to Valena Henderson at csstat@dowjones.com.

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Nov 2
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE. SOURCE: USDA, FGIS;
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING OCT 29, 2020
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 10/29/2020 10/22/2020 10/31/2019 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 798 3,134 9,867 11,808
CORN 721,623 680,823 283,704 6,867,630 3,762,491
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 389 172
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 996 798
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 94,454 73,531 67,048 637,099 375,530
SOYBEANS 2,082,741 2,818,734 1,483,653 16,584,920 9,556,028
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 287,059 399,645 293,971 11,372,672 10,916,185
Total 3,185,877 3,973,531 2,131,510 35,473,573 24,623,012
————————————————————————
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Alerts History
• 02-Nov-2020 03:31:16 PM – STONEX (FORMERLY INTL FCSTONE) SAYS ESTIMATES U.S. 2020 CORN CROP AT 14.762 BILLION BUSHELS (PREVIOUSLY 14.942), YIELD 178.9 BU/ACRE (PREVIOUSLY 179.0)
• 02-Nov-2020 03:31:16 PM – STONEX SAYS ESTIMATES U.S. 2020 SOYBEAN CROP AT 4.291 BILLION BUSHELS (PREVIOUSLY 4.351 BLN), YIELD 52.1 BU/ACRE (PREVIOUSLY 52.4)

Crop Progress
11/01/20 10/26/20 Last year Average
Cotton Harvested 52 42 51 49
Corn Harvested 82 72 49 69
Soybeans Harvested eighty seven 83 71 83
Sorghum Harvested eighty two 74 74 71
Peanuts Harvested sixty six 56 82 76
Rice Harvested 96 94 98 99
Sugarbeets Harvested 95 89 67 84
Sunflowers Harvested 61 50 27 54
Winter Wheat Planted 89 85 88 86
Winter Wheat Emerged 71 62 69 70

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 6 28 29 29 8
Cotton Last Week 6 25 29 32 8
Cotton Last Year 5 15 40 33 7

Winter Wheat This Week 6 13 38 37 6
Winter Wheat Last Week 6 13 40 35 6
Winter Wheat Last Year 4 9 30 45 12

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher on ideas that Russia did not get enough rain over the weekend. Cash market prices were reported higher there. The export demand has held together well despite the fact that US prices are high in the world market. Not all of the dry areas off the Great Plains got the rains and snow, but many did. Parts of southern Russia could see some relief from drought as a few showers are in the forecast. It is still a weather market and the planting weather is dry in many northern hemisphere areas, but the weather is starting to chip away at the drier areas. This is especially true in the US where the drought is a thing of the past for much of the western Great Plains. Only parts of southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas are still too dry. Southern Russia could stay mostly dry. Eastern sections of Ukraine should get a few showers. Kazakhstan should stay mostly dry. Farmers in Russia and surrounding areas are not really selling much of the current crop due to fears about production of the next crop. Less production is likely in Argentina due to drought, but the rains are good in some areas now. Western Australia has also been very dry, but eastern Australia is in very good condition. Western Australia shoud get some light rain this week The Midwest has had good rains after a dry period. Much of Europe is in good condition.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get drier weather. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see drier weather. Temperatures will be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see light snow. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 576, 560, and 538 December. Support is at 591, 587, and 576 December, with resistance at 616, 620, and 629 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 536, 532, and 524 December, with resistance at 559, 568, and 575 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 547, 540, and 535 December, and resistance is at 560, 570, and 579 December.

RICE
General Rice was a little lower and made new lows for the move in quiet trading. Export demand has been strong in general. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been poor to average with better consumer demand more than offset by much less demand from schools and other institutions. The harvest is mostly over in northern states with good field yields reported. Southern Louisiana and Texas are waiting for the second crop harvest to start. Producers had to endure Hurricane Delta and then Zeta in Louisiana, and some of the second crop Rice got hurt. Quality is said to be very good everywhere.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1214 and 1190 January. Support is at 1223, 1220, and 1218 January, with resistance at 1240, 1250, and 1257 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments Corn and Oats were a little lower due to the return of the Coronavirus pandemic. The virus could cause lockdowns again and could keep people off the road, causing less demand for ethanol. The US presidential elections today caused some large speculators to take money out of risk investments such as Corn yesterday. US weather was tough for harvesting last week with wet and cold conditions for much of the Midwest. Conditions are much improved this week with warmer and drier weather and the harvest is underway again. Yield reports have generally been good except for the drought and derecho areas of Iowa.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 393, 386, and 384 December, and resistance is at 404, 410, and 413 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 274 December. Support is at 291, 286, and 284 December, and resistance is at 297, 302, and 305 December.

Dry and Wet Mill, Corn Consumed – United States: September 2020 with Comparisons
————————————————————————————————————
Purpose :September 2019 : August 2020 :September 2020
————————————————————————————————————
: 1,000 bushels
:
Consumed for alcohol production :
Beverage alcohol …………………………………..: 3,300 3,201 3,862
Fuel alcohol ………………………………………: 405,685 411,109 400,869
Dry mill ………………………………………..: 365,513 371,300 360,822
Wet mill ………………………………………..: 40,172 39,809 40,047
Industrial alcohol …………………………………: 5,327 8,904 6,405
Consumed for other purposes :
Total wet mill products other than fuel ………………: 39,683 38,750 38,753
————————————————————————————————————

Dry Mill, Sorghum Consumed – United States: September 2020 with Comparisons
————————————————————————————————————
Purpose :September 2019 : August 2020 :September 2020
————————————————————————————————————
: 1,000 cwt
:
Consumed for alcohol production :
Fuel alcohol ………………………………………: 5,127 (D) (D)
————————————————————————————————————
(D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations.

Dry and Wet Mill, Co-products and Products Produced – United States: September 2020 with Comparisons
————————————————————————————————————
Co-products and products :September 2019 : August 2020 :September 2020
————————————————————————————————————
: tons
:
Dry mill :
Condensed distillers solubles (CDS – syrup) …………..: 102,911 81,214 77,294
Corn oil (Corn Distillers Oil – CDO) …………………: 142,861 146,009 140,468
Distillers dried grains (DDG) ……………………….: 286,849 342,654 341,156
Distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) ………….: 1,788,730 1,805,450 1,733,521
Distillers wet grains (DWG) 65% or more moisture ………: 1,217,873 926,812 961,695
Modified distillers wet grains (DWG) 40% to 64% moisture .: 398,844 373,476 402,384
:
Wet mill :
Corn germ meal …………………………………….: 64,059 53,576 50,401
Corn gluten feed …………………………………..: 289,797 260,453 284,409
Corn gluten meal …………………………………..: 86,423 86,406 85,348
Wet corn gluten feed 40% to 60% moisture ……………..: 208,645 252,006 251,199
:
Dry and wet mill :
Carbon dioxide captured …………………………….: 253,981 194,460 185,854
————————————————————————————————————

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed lower on less Chinese demand and the return of the Coronavirus to the US and Europe. The presidential elections today in the US has many speculators taking risk off the table and selling Soybeans. China has not appeared in the daily sales announcements from USDA in a couple of weeks and the market is feeling the loss. China still needs to buy for crushers, but appears to have bought what was necessary for the reserve. The weather in the US is good for any remaining harvest as it has turned drier and warmer this week after a cold and wet week last week. The weather in South America is improved. Showers and rains have fallen in most of Brazil and much of Argentina. Southern Brazil and Paraguay have missed out on the good rains but did get a few showers. Soybeans are actively being planted in Brazil, but southern areas are still too dry as are parts of Argentina and all of Paraguay and Uruguay.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1026 January. Support is at 1038, 1034, and 1025 January, and resistance is at 1063, 1075, and 1078 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 359.00, 341.00, and 340.00 December. Support is at 372.00, 369.00, and 368.00 December, and resistance is at 384.00, 392.00, and 394.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3130 December. Support is at 3290, 3270, and 3210 December, with resistance at 3370, 3400, and 3440 December.

Soybean Crushing, Production, Consumption and Stocks – United States: September 2020 with Comparisons
————————————————————————————————————
Item :September 2019 : August 2020 :September 2020
————————————————————————————————————
Crush :
Soybeans crushed………………………………….tons: 4,870,034 5,240,230 5,131,665
Crude oil produced…………………………1,000 pounds: 1,900,668 2,012,823 1,967,621
Cake and meal produced…………………………….tons: 3,553,484 3,851,205 3,754,168
For animal feed…………………………………tons: 3,514,472 3,805,984 3,704,259
For edible protein products………………………tons: 39,012 45,221 49,909
Millfeed produced…………………………………tons: 246,065 260,540 255,248
:
Refine :
Crude oil processed in refining……………..1,000 pounds: 1,448,211 1,595,920 1,531,074
Once refined oil produced…………………..1,000 pounds: 1,412,136 1,555,437 1,496,712
:
Consumption :
Crude oil removed for inedible use in processing1,000 pounds: 82,646 119,840 134,972
Once refined oil removed for use in processing..1,000 pounds: 1,493,955 1,605,812 1,564,267
Removed for edible use in processing……….1,000 pounds: 1,067,450 1,164,694 1,126,090
Removed for inedible use in processing……..1,000 pounds: 426,505 441,118 438,177
:
Stocks :
Cake and meal on hand end of month………………….tons: 360,387 388,138 312,944
Millfeed on hand end of month………………………tons: 41,628 32,959 28,392
Crude oil on hand end of month………………1,000 pounds: 1,400,569 1,572,483 1,503,344
Crusher…………………………………1,000 pounds: 697,669 653,157 600,806
Refiner…………………………………1,000 pounds: 410,770 322,528 328,136
Offsite…………………………………1,000 pounds: 292,130 596,798 574,402
Once refined oil on hand end of month………..1,000 pounds: 374,747 369,479 345,186
————————————————————————————————————

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher. Ideas are that MPOB can show lower ending stocks this month. Chart trends are trying to turn up again. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. Getting workers to do the harvest remains hard and the lack of labor has been a big problem. At least some of the plantation owners have asked for more migrant workers to cover the lack of workers that can be sourced locally. Canola was lower on weaker US and world petroleum prices. Canola farmers are selling due to harvest pressure, and industry and speculators are starting to sell now. The Canadian Dollar is higher but Canola is still considered relatively cheap in the world market. Harvest in the Prairies is almost done and yields are reported to be very strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 529.00, 526.00, and 520.00 January, with resistance at 544.00, 547.00, and 553.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2860 and 2730 January. Support is at 2940, 2860, and 2760 January, with resistance at 2990, 3020, and 3120 January.

Selected Oilseed Crushing, Production, Consumption and Stocks – United States: September 2020 with Comparisons
—————————————————————————————————————-
Item :September 2019 : August 2020 :September 2020
—————————————————————————————————————-
Canola :
Crush :
Seeds crushed………………………………………tons: 163,321 202,580 208,338
Crude oil produced…………………………..1,000 pounds: 134,207 171,519 174,436
Cake and meal produced………………………………tons: 91,758 115,606 121,434
Refine :
Crude oil processed in refining……………….1,000 pounds: 124,663 131,124 169,510
Once refined oil produced…………………….1,000 pounds: 119,864 125,964 163,924
Consumption :
Crude oil removed for inedible use in processing..1,000 pounds: (D) (D) (D)
Once refined oil removed for use in processing….1,000 pounds: 144,417 162,105 174,345
Removed for edible use in processing…………1,000 pounds: (D) (D) (D)
Removed for inedible use in processing……….1,000 pounds: (D) (D) (D)
Stocks :
Cake and meal on hand end of month……………………tons: (D) 25,292 42,075
Crude oil on hand end of month………………..1,000 pounds: 63,428 53,405 39,855
Once refined oil on hand end of month………….1,000 pounds: 94,502 98,512 92,021

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November +78 Dec +152 Dec +80 Dec +92 Nov +15 Dec N/A
December +76 Dec +86 Dec +87 Jan
January +75 Mar +85 Jan

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 2
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 505.60 -32.10 Nov 2020 up 3.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 559.90 25.00 Jan 2021 dn 2.70
Basis: Vancouver 569.90 35.00 Jan 2021 dn 4.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 835.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 805.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 750.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 702.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 837.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 807.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 752.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 705.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 835.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 720.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 3,360.00 +80.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 233.00 +07.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.154)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 03
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 229,023 lots, or 11.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 5,108 5,108 5,108 5,108 5,045 5,108 63 2 296
Jan-21 5,112 5,149 5,063 5,124 5,093 5,104 11 211,341 131,418
Mar-21 5,115 5,132 5,044 5,125 5,062 5,090 28 4,671 3,063
May-21 5,153 5,171 5,110 5,154 5,144 5,137 -7 11,414 16,163
Jul-21 5,143 5,170 5,111 5,158 5,129 5,137 8 1,493 2,266
Sep-21 5,071 5,120 5,050 5,102 5,075 5,081 6 102 573
Corn
Turnover: 1,096,989 lots, or 2.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 2,511 2,521 2,511 2,517 2,548 2,517 -31 293 24,361
Jan-21 2,555 2,566 2,533 2,540 2,580 2,548 -32 703,283 1,144,185
Mar-21 2,553 2,565 2,542 2,545 2,569 2,550 -19 24,327 35,586
May-21 2,560 2,567 2,545 2,547 2,573 2,553 -20 206,408 570,060
Jul-21 2,564 2,575 2,554 2,557 2,579 2,562 -17 140,400 98,688
Sep-21 2,570 2,574 2,553 2,557 2,580 2,562 -18 22,278 104,370
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,325,698 lots, or 41.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 3,137 3,150 3,137 3,140 3,113 3,141 28 208 2,341
Dec-20 3,217 3,244 3,198 3,227 3,217 3,229 12 485 2,198
Jan-21 3,180 3,201 3,171 3,189 3,194 3,186 -8 676,273 1,154,440
Mar-21 3,103 3,132 3,100 3,125 3,113 3,117 4 18,683 30,881
May-21 3,035 3,058 3,031 3,052 3,039 3,047 8 353,033 1,196,230
Jul-21 2,996 3,020 2,989 3,019 2,994 3,000 6 216,971 34,023
Aug-21 3,053 3,075 3,046 3,074 3,050 3,063 13 5,393 10,742
Sep-21 3,065 3,085 3,056 3,083 3,063 3,073 10 54,652 213,061
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,720,362 lots, or 10.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 – – – 7,100 7,100 7,100 0 0 13
Dec-20 6,286 6,474 6,286 6,456 6,394 6,322 -72 22,528 2,226
Jan-21 6,178 6,376 6,140 6,358 6,216 6,264 48 1,098,660 373,737
Feb-21 6,084 6,308 6,064 6,296 6,152 6,176 24 380,385 14,907
Mar-21 5,984 6,200 5,966 6,184 6,022 6,092 70 132,565 4,585
Apr-21 5,886 6,106 5,884 6,082 5,964 5,932 -32 1,312 903
May-21 5,800 5,968 5,768 5,940 5,808 5,882 74 82,439 117,548
Jun-21 5,782 5,866 5,782 5,866 5,782 5,846 64 5 15
Jul-21 – – – 5,802 5,686 5,802 116 648 59
Aug-21 – – – 5,736 5,736 5,736 0 0 2
Sep-21 5,496 5,652 5,490 5,636 5,504 5,576 72 1,820 5,498
Oct-21 – – – 5,632 5,510 5,632 122 0 38
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,178,421 lots, or 84.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 – – – 7,274 7,274 7,274 0 0 1
Dec-20 7,250 7,406 7,220 7,396 7,250 7,300 50 169 690
Jan-21 7,138 7,356 7,118 7,346 7,166 7,260 94 884,425 565,260
Mar-21 7,072 7,250 7,072 7,234 7,088 7,166 78 7,227 7,496
May-21 6,800 6,950 6,788 6,928 6,796 6,878 82 129,081 308,624
Jul-21 6,668 6,802 6,656 6,780 6,668 6,736 68 88,781 9,843
Aug-21 6,638 6,764 6,628 6,738 6,644 6,698 54 62,218 880
Sep-21 6,560 6,730 6,560 6,708 6,598 6,674 76 6,520 22,736
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322