About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton closed higher for the week and trends are up on the weekly charts. Hurricane Delta moved through the Delta and Southeast a couple of weeks ago and did some damage to Cotton. Open bolls were reported in both regions and Cotton fiber was discolored or else blown out of the bolls due to the rain and winds. The discolored Cotton is getting a chance to recover now as it has turned dry and the fiber can be naturally bleached by the Sun. Heavy rains are returning to the Southeast this week and Cotton could be hurt again. The weekly export sales report showed improved demand last week and was considered a reason to buy futures. There was no major Chinese demand. Demand should stay generally weak as long as the Coronavirus is around. Shopping is hard to do and many people are still unemployed.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal in the Delta and in the Southeast. Texas will have showers and snow. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 66.18 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 36,963 bales, from 33,731 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 7000, 6930, and 6840 December, with resistance of 7220, 7250 and 7280 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 20, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 292,619
: Positions :
: 68,902 6,448 63,985 50,505 199,682 90,840 12,740 274,231 282,855: 18,388 9,765
: Changes from: October 13, 2020 (Change in open interest: 10,785) :
: 6,060 -416 1,741 1,078 10,952 948 -1,696 9,827 10,581: 958 203
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.5 2.2 21.9 17.3 68.2 31.0 4.4 93.7 96.7: 6.3 3.3
: Total Traders: 290 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 124 35 79 50 69 45 21 247 186:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was near unchanged after trading on both sides of unchanged last week. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is really dining out. Florida production prospects for the new crop were hurt by an extended flowering period, but the weather is good now with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Showers are falling in Brazil now. Mexican crop conditions are called good to very good with ample rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 115.00, 110.00, and 109.00 November, with resistance at 119.00, 121.00, and 126.00 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 20, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,222 :
: Positions :
: 6,805 7,687 896 93 0 1,034 2,207 75 627 591 1,282 :
: Changes from: October 13, 2020 :
: 251 596 42 0 0 116 -196 0 -86 -7 -648 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 51.5 58.1 6.8 0.7 0.0 7.8 16.7 0.6 4.7 4.5 9.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 54 :
: 19 10 . . 0 6 10 . 11 . 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower last week in New York and slightly lower in London. London had been better supported due to stronger demand ideas and worries about the weather in Vietnam and the country is getting too much rain now and flooding is being reported in the Central Highlands. The rains should continue for another week. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The Brazil harvest is over and producers are selling due to the recent extreme weakness in the Real. Ideas are that production is very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. Central America is also offering right now and offers are increasing. The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.129 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 104.49 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 103.00, 100.00, and 98.00 December, and resistance is at 107.00, 109.00 and 111.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1240, 1220, and 1210 November, and resistance is at 1280, 1320, and 1340 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 20, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 330,493
: Positions :
: 40,224 24,736 84,994 117,594 192,994 70,888 17,147 313,700 319,870: 16,793 10,623
: Changes from: October 13, 2020 (Change in open interest: 3,017) :
: -162 4,654 -1,784 5,567 -1,147 -2,185 137 1,437 1,860: 1,580 1,158
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.2 7.5 25.7 35.6 58.4 21.4 5.2 94.9 96.8: 5.1 3.2
: Total Traders: 419 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 143 69 125 120 113 47 23 366 291:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/20/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
141,022 70,049 65,547 17,992 14,780 1,267
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 49.7% 46.5% 12.8% 10.5% 0.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
136 44 40 13 5 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
9,303 17,584 3,897 4,235 5,025 28,815
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.6% 12.5% 2.8% 3.0% 3.6% 20.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
19 21 15 9 13 22
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,464 4,107
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.9% 2.9%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York was higher and London was a little lower. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. About 45% of the crush this year will go to Sugar, from 35% last year. It has been dry lately to affect Sugarcane production and producers are less aggressive sellers. Rains are falling now to improve Sugarcane growing conditions. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but the exports have been hard to make. The Indian government has not yet announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no one knows how much to charge yet. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Rains are moving through the country now from Vietnam and the Pacific. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease. Demand appears to be about average.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1510 and 1580 March. Support is at 1460, 1430, and 1410 March, and resistance is at 1520, 1550, and 1580 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 394.00, 388.00, and 385.00 December, and resistance is at 405.00, 409.00, and 412.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 20, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,167,652
: Positions :
: 238,798 38,238 189,667 323,546 843,372 319,858 52,007 1,071,869 1,123,285: 95,782 44,367
: Changes from: October 13, 2020 (Change in open interest: 36,095) :
: 10,489 3,752 3,991 11,920 25,580 6,833 1,147 33,232 34,469: 2,862 1,626
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.5 3.3 16.2 27.7 72.2 27.4 4.5 91.8 96.2: 8.2 3.8
: Total Traders: 262 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 89 29 63 81 79 45 19 245 166:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/20/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
98,501 48,572 79,740 11,831 5,453 1,741
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 49.3% 81.0% 12.0% 5.5% 1.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
116 37 40 9 7 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
22,923 1,229 3,939 1,470 1,473 2,867
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
23.3% 1.2% 4.0% 1.5% 1.5% 2.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
30 5 13 5 7 12
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,158 2,059
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.2% 2.1%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were higher. The daily charts suggest that both markets have made short term lows. The harvest for the next main crop is spreading through much of West Africa and very strong production is expected. Some concern is noted in Nigeria as rains keep falling and make it hard to sun dry the beans. Drier weather is currently in the forecast so conditions should improve. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic. The North American and European cocoa grinds were at least 4% lower than a year ago and the Asian cocoa grind was down 10% from last year Ivory Coast is in the middle of the presidential campaign season and some violence s expected.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions today and showers this weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.500 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2640, 2810, and 2980 December. Support is at 2450, 2420, and 2370 December, with resistance at 2520, 2530, and 2580 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1650, 1620, and 1590 December, with resistance at 1730, 1770, and 1810 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 20, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 247,337
: Positions :
: 32,008 27,660 62,649 86,066 129,051 54,702 20,669 235,424 240,028: 11,913 7,309
: Changes from: October 13, 2020 (Change in open interest: -8,185) :
: -4,621 -1,632 -1,061 668 -4,380 -2,197 -238 -7,211 -7,311: -974 -874
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.9 11.2 25.3 34.8 52.2 22.1 8.4 95.2 97.0: 4.8 3.0
: Total Traders: 216 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 75 48 64 46 40 33 20 184 147:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/20/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
251,264 140,564 170,713 40,016 17,038 8,745
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 55.9% 67.9% 15.9% 6.8% 3.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
134 47 48 11 7 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,704 10,353 9,233 2,177 858 31,323
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.3% 4.1% 3.7% 0.9% 0.3% 12.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
22 14 10 14 7 20
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,502 3,001
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.4% 1.2%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322