About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for October USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Oct 1 103.3 102.7- 103.9
Placed in Sep 102.5 98.9- 106.5
Marketed in Sep 105.9 104.9- 106.7
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Oct 1 in Sep in Sep
Allegiant Commodity Group 103.2 102.3 106.0
Allendale Inc. 102.7 98.9 105.2
HedgersEdge 103.3 101.8 104.9
Linn Group 103.9 106.5 106.4
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 103.3 102.2 105.8
NFC Markets 103.1 102.2 106.7
Texas A&M Extension 103.4 104.0 105.8
U.S. Commodities 103.3 102.5 106.2

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher again yesterday. It is a weather market and the planting weather is dry in many northern hemisphere areas. Western Europe is likely to get some good rains in the short term, but southern Russia could stay mostly dry. Dry conditions are forecast for eastern Ukraine this week. Kazakhstan has been dry. These areas are trying to plant the next Winter Wheat crop but the dry weather and the dry soils are keeping farmers out of the fields. Farmers are not really selling much of the current crop due to fears about production of the next crop. Less production is likely in Argentina due to drought, but the rains are coming. Western Australia has also been very dry. The western Great Plains remains mostly dry. The Midwest has had some rains and the forecasts call for good rains this week in SRW areas.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see light snow. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 660 December. Support is at 617, 604, and 600 December, with resistance at 638, 644, and 650 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 600 December. Support is at 553, 540, and 527 December, with resistance at 573, 576, and 579 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 560, 555, and 548 December, and resistance is at 578, 581, and 584 December.

RICE
General Comments Rice was lower and made new lows for the move as the US harvest is in its final stages. The harvest has been active in northern states with good field yields reported. Southern Louisiana and Texas are done with the first crop harvest and are waiting for the second crop to mature. Producers had to endure Hurricane Delta in Louisiana, but the Rice apparently made it through with only minimal losses if any losses were seen at all. Quality is said to be very good, especially in Arkansas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1185 November. Support is at 1218, 1210, and 1204 November, with resistance at 1236, 1241, and 1255 November.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Oct 21
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 16.98 10.84 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.67 11.22 0.00
Brokens 10.77 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments Corn moved higher. Farmers in the US are holding Corn for later sale despite firm basis and tight carry spreads. Producers are unhappy with the price and the Soybeans are paying much better, so farmers are selling the Soybeans and holding the Corn. Harvest reports from the country suggest that production of a good crop is likely. Demand is holding strong for exports, but domestic demand was cut back from previous estimates in the latest WASDE report. The demand has come primarily from China as the state companies bought for the reserve, and the buying could continue. The harvest has been active in the Midwest with very good harvest conditions.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 412, 414, and 427 December. Support is at 403, 399, and 393 December, and resistance is at 412, 413, and 416 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 295, 291, and 287 December, and resistance is at 300, 303, and 306 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher and Soybean Meal was lower. Traders are expecting more demand in the short term. The demand has been primarily from China but other countries are buying in the US as well. Reports indicated that the producer is selling Soybeans right off the combine or is delivering against previous contracts. Chinese buying for the reserve is almost finished. Ideas are that individual crushers are still with positions to buy. The trade generally expects China to shift its buying back to Brazil in the near future, but Brazil has been hot and dry and parts of Argentina have also been dry and some of the early planting has been delayed. That might keep the Chinese buying in the US for a little longer. Brazil is starting to get rains, so all of the projected Soybeans area will get planted and a big crop from Brazil is still expected. The US harvest is continuing and starting to end. Yield reports have been disappointing in some areas of the Midwest.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1046, 1038, and 1032 November, and resistance is at 1066, 1071, and 1080 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 377.00 December. Support is at 369.00, 360.00, and 357.00 December, and resistance is at 378.00, 381.00, and 384.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3230, 3210, and 3150 December, with resistance at 3370, 3400, and 3420 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on improved October demand for exports and price action overseas. The export pace as reported by private surveyors increased from September. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. Getting workers to do the harvest remains hard and the lack of labor has been a big problem. At least some of the plantation owners have asked for more migrant workers to cover the lack of workers that can be sourced locally. Canola was higher along with the rallies in Palm Oil and Soybean Oil. Canola farmers are selling due to harvest pressure, but industry and speculators are buying. The Canadian Dollar is higher but Canola is still considered relatively cheap in the world market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 557.00 November. Support is at 529.00, 527.00, and 521.00 November, with resistance at 551.00, 554.00, and 557.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2760, 2740, and 2710 January, with resistance at 2910, 2980, and 3070 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October +75 Dec +160 Dec +65 Dec +88 Nov +15 Dec N/A
November +78 Dec +65 Dec +88 Nov
December +75 Dec +70 Dec +87 Jan

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 20
WINNIPEG – The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for Oct. 20, 2020.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 501.20 -31.90 Nov 20 up 2.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 550.00 12.00 Nov 20 up 4.90
Basis: Vancouver 564.00 26.00 Nov 20 up 4.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 770.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 752.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 720.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 687.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 772.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 755.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 722.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 690.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 780.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 700.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 3,050.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 198.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1420)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 323,256 lots, or 15.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 4,878 4,916 4,666 4,753 4,924 4,820 -104 539 386
Jan-21 4,890 4,899 4,718 4,778 4,885 4,819 -66 298,825 115,045
Mar-21 4,895 4,898 4,727 4,768 4,862 4,829 -33 2,262 3,139
May-21 4,928 4,932 4,772 4,840 4,907 4,868 -39 19,761 16,352
Jul-21 4,918 4,923 4,800 4,854 4,911 4,882 -29 1,766 2,302
Sep-21 4,878 4,898 4,783 4,821 4,890 4,851 -39 103 386
Corn
Turnover: 1,331,349 lots, or 34.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 2,555 2,567 2,530 2,550 2,555 2,550 -5 3,167 43,595
Jan-21 2,591 2,597 2,565 2,587 2,593 2,585 -8 887,310 1,424,793
Mar-21 2,585 2,592 2,554 2,571 2,589 2,578 -11 31,976 25,783
May-21 2,590 2,597 2,556 2,575 2,594 2,578 -16 261,186 547,261
Jul-21 2,586 2,601 2,563 2,576 2,601 2,584 -17 117,965 100,117
Sep-21 2,591 2,603 2,560 2,577 2,604 2,583 -21 29,745 76,229
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,312,731 lots, or 74.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 3,255 3,286 3,242 3,249 3,248 3,265 17 2,324 13,559
Dec-20 3,300 3,328 3,283 3,288 3,281 3,300 19 7,933 2,943
Jan-21 3,283 3,321 3,269 3,284 3,273 3,292 19 1,454,963 1,355,468
Mar-21 3,218 3,249 3,203 3,217 3,208 3,224 16 67,954 34,576
May-21 3,106 3,123 3,081 3,089 3,103 3,101 -2 525,298 1,166,510
Jul-21 3,040 3,061 3,020 3,025 3,049 3,038 -11 155,267 27,297
Aug-21 3,095 3,107 3,066 3,074 3,093 3,089 -4 10,448 10,223
Sep-21 3,108 3,121 3,078 3,084 3,105 3,099 -6 88,544 170,829
Palm Oil
Turnover: 2,056,886 lots, or 12.23 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-20 – – – 6,308 6,308 6,308 0 0 68
Nov-20 6,260 6,416 6,260 6,388 6,196 6,278 82 380 156
Dec-20 6,104 6,200 6,042 6,160 5,968 6,112 144 110,071 2,846
Jan-21 5,958 6,066 5,900 6,024 5,860 5,980 120 1,110,999 372,886
Feb-21 5,912 6,018 5,864 5,978 5,806 5,930 124 498,585 9,722
Mar-21 5,842 5,968 5,806 5,934 5,752 5,880 128 10,634 3,897
Apr-21 5,788 5,886 5,754 5,848 5,682 5,802 120 259,448 227
May-21 5,702 5,816 5,680 5,788 5,628 5,750 122 64,770 113,334
Jun-21 – – – 5,694 5,694 5,694 0 0 12
Jul-21 5,718 5,718 5,718 5,718 5,560 5,718 158 1 20
Aug-21 – – – 5,696 5,696 5,696 0 0 2
Sep-21 5,552 5,590 5,494 5,560 5,448 5,544 96 1,998 5,095
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,118,145 lots, or 77.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 6,950 7,166 6,950 7,138 6,946 7,000 54 521 1,786
Dec-20 7,044 7,184 7,016 7,150 6,956 7,090 134 2,779 2,030
Jan-21 6,950 7,088 6,912 7,038 6,864 7,000 136 767,938 526,288
Mar-21 6,922 7,052 6,884 7,024 6,828 6,956 128 9,857 7,245
May-21 6,770 6,864 6,710 6,824 6,656 6,796 140 96,682 284,681
Jul-21 6,660 6,772 6,612 6,734 6,556 6,672 116 140,333 6,673
Aug-21 6,628 6,732 6,584 6,690 6,520 6,630 110 94,547 311
Sep-21 6,600 6,696 6,556 6,670 6,518 6,656 138 5,488 12,288
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322