Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments Cotton closed a little higher. Trends are still mostly up, but for now the market is in a short term range with demand ideas and production ideas in a battle. Hurricane Delta moved into the Southeast and brought some heavy rains. Ideas are that most of the Cotton crops in the region have open bolls now and that some significant damage might have been done due to wind and rain. Am extended dry period is in the forecast now which will help with quality concerns as the drier air can bleach the fibers white. It remains very dry in the Texas Panhandle and in the western Great Plains. The harvest has been active and is expanding now. Demand should stay weak as long as the Coronavirus is around. Shopping is hard to do and many people are still unemployed. This is true in just about all countries.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get dry conditions after scattered showers today and tomorrow. Temperatures should trend to below normal in the Delta and in the Southeast. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal through tomorrow, then near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 63.76 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 25,973 bales, from 24,232 bales yesterday. USDA said that net weekly Upland Cotton export sales were 98,900 bales this year and 13,200 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 17,800 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6840, 6800, and 6750 December, with resistance of 6950, 7060 and 7090 December.
General Comments: FCOJ was higher and held the current trading range. Prices closed near the highs of the day and of the range. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms with a record amount of tropical storms hitting the US. There are no systems in the Atlantic to cause any alarm right now. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food services are suffering as no one is really dining out or are dining out and drinking out to a very limited extent in most states. Florida production prospects for the new crop are improving with the weather good with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Showers are falling in Brazil now and conditions are improving. Mexican crop conditions are called good to very good with ample rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 114.00, 112.00, and 111.00 November, with resistance at 119.00, 121.00, and 126.00 November.
General Comments: Futures were a little lower in New York and higher in London. Vietnam is getting a lot of rain now and the worries have abated and more is expected from a tropical system this weekend and early next week. Some areas are flooding in the central parts of the countru, but most Coffee areas are not getting such big rains and could be improving. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The Brazil harvest is over and producers are selling due to the recent extreme weakness in the Real. Ideas are that production is very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. Central America is also offering right now and offers are increasing. The weather is mostly good in South America and Central America.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.116 million bags. GCA stocks are now 6.402 million bags, from 6.745 million last month. The ICO daily average price is now 106.97 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 106.00, 105.00, and 103.00 December, and resistance is at 111.00, 113.00 and 115.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1240, 1220, and 1210 November, and resistance is at 1270, 1280, and 1320 November.
General Comments: New York and London closed a little lower, but recovered from the worst losses of the day to close inside the trading range. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. It has been dry lately to affect Sugarcane production. Rains are starting now, so production prospects overall are good. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but the Coronavirus has made exports hard. The Indian government has not announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no one knows how much to charge yet. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. The country is getting better rains now due to tropical systems coming from Vietnam. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease. The US southern Sugarcane crop probably suffered some damage in Louisiana from recent storms. Demand appears to be about average.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1380, 1370, and 1330 March, and resistance is at 1450, 1490, and 1530 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 385.00, 380.00, and 377.00 December, and resistance is at 390.00, 395.00, and 396.00 December.
General Comments: New York and London were lower for one more day. Trends are down in both markets. The harvest for the next main crop is spreading to much of West Africa and very strong production is expected. Some concern is noted in Nigeria as rains keep falling and make it hard to sun dry the beans. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic. Ivory Coast is in the middle of the presidential campaign season and some violence s expected.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions today and showers this weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.575 million bags. The North American Cocoa 3rd quarter grind was 118,260 tons, from 123,208 tons last year
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2360, 2350, and 2290 December. Support is at 2330, 2300, and 2270 December, with resistance at 2450, 2490, and 2520 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1530 December. Support is at 1620, 1590, and 1570 December, with resistance at 1700, 1730, and 1770 December.
DJ Asia Cocoa Grindings Fell 10% on Year in 3Q
By Will Horner
Asian cocoa grindings fell more than 10% in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to figures from the Cocoa Association of Asia released Friday.
Cocoa grindings were 202,665 metric tons in the quarter. That was 10.1% less than in 2019 but almost completely unchanged from the second quarter.
Grindings refer to the volume of cocoa beans processed into the butters and powders used to make chocolate and are often taken as a proxy for cocoa demand.
The coronavirus pandemic and resulting global economic slowdown has stoked fears that consumers will cut back on discretionary items such as chocolate potentially hitting demand for cocoa beans.
In the second quarter, grindings were 202,674 tons, which was 6% less than the previous year and 2.3% less than the previous month.
The industry body compiles grindings data from Malaysia and from Cocoa Association of Asia members in Singapore and Indonesia.