About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Oct 16
For the week ended Oct 8, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 528.5 71.2 15049.3 13821.6 5051.9 127.0
hrw 243.0 11.2 5630.1 5192.9 1533.4 22.0
srw 30.5 60.0 1194.3 1728.5 317.9 100.0
hrs 85.7 0.0 4355.8 3774.2 1530.0 5.0
white 169.0 0.0 3326.9 2629.3 1450.0 0.0
durum 0.3 0.0 542.2 496.9 220.6 0.0
corn 655.2 0.0 26503.0 10364.5 22010.1 206.0
soybeans 2631.3 0.0 43235.2 17852.5 34217.2 60.0
soymeal 152.2 0.0 3619.2 3616.1 3361.9 18.1
soyoil 1.4 0.2 178.2 199.9 159.8 0.2
upland cotton 98.9 13.2 8233.2 9135.6 5728.2 498.9
pima cotton 17.8 0.0 348.2 202.6 232.4 0.7
sorghum 0.0 0.0 2935.2 266.9 2541.8 136.0
barley 0.0 0.0 42.1 57.5 33.2 0.0
rice 10.0 0.0 1019.5 1386.5 764.1 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher on the uncertain production prospects with much of the Winter Wheat crop having trouble getting planted due to dry conditions. Western Europe is likely to get some good rains in the short term, but southern Russia could stay dry or get very light showers. Some showers are forecast for Ukraine, but the eastern sections of the country should stay dry. Kazakhstan is dry. These areas are trying to plant the next Winter Wheat crop but the dry weather and the dry soils are keeping farmers out of the fields. Less production is likely in Argentina due to drought, but some showers were reported in dry areas over the weekend. About quarter of Argentine growing areas are affected after the beneficial rains. More rain is forecast for Argentina. Western Australia has also been very dry. Conditions are improved in the US after some rains fell in the Great Plains but the western Great Plains remains mostly hot and dry. The Midwest has had good rains but will need more soon.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should trend to below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will trend to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should trend to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 619, 630, and 660 December. Support is at 600, 587, and 576 December, with resistance at 620, 626, and 632 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 570 and 600 December. Support is at 540, 527, and 524 December, with resistance at 553, 555, and 558 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 562 and 577 December. Support is at 555, 548, and 541 December, and resistance is at 569, 571, and 574 December.

RICE
General Comments Rice was a little higher as the harvest is now almost over. US export demand was very strong once again last week and were a marketing year high. Strong sales are anticipated again this week. Central and South American countries were the best buyers, followed by eastern Asia. The harvest has been active in northern states with good field yields reported. Southern Louisiana and Texas are done with the first crop harvest and are waiting for the second crop to mature. Quality is said to be very good, especially in Arkansas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1239, 1234, and 1220 November, with resistance at 1255, 1260, and 1275 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher on the rally in Wheat and on hopes for more Chinese demand. China had bought 420,000 tons of US Corn earlier in the week. The harvest continues and many producers are storing the Corn to wait for higher prices. Harvest reports from the country suggest that production of a good crop is likely. Demand is holding strong for exports, but domestic demand is reduced. The demand has come primarily from China as the state companies bought for the reserve. The harvest has expanded into the Midwest with very good harvest conditions. The Midwest harvest has been slow as the Corn is slow to dry down.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 128,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 412, 414, and 427 December. Support is at 393, 387, and 385 December, and resistance is at 404, 407, and 410 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 287, 281, and 279 December, and resistance is at 297, 300, and 303 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher on news that China had bought another 261,000 tons of US Soybeans for a total of about 500,000 tons so far this week. The carry spreads have turned bullish due to the strong demand. Reports indicate that the producer is selling Soybeans right off the combine or is delivering against previous contracts. Chinese buying for the reserve is almost finished, but the crushers still need to buy. The trade generally expects China to shift its buying back to Brazil in the near future, but Brazil has been hot and dry and parts of Argentina have also been dry and some of the early planting has been delayed. That might keep the Chinese buying in the US for a little longer, but only for the crushers and not for the reserve. Brazil is expected to get rains starting this weekend, so all of the projected Soybeans area will get planted and a big crop from Brazil is still expected.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 216,150 tons of US Soybeans and 175,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1038, 1032, and 1023 November, and resistance is at 1068, 1080, and 1084 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 377.00 December. Support is at 360.00, 353.00, and 349.00 December, and resistance is at 372.00, 375.00, and 378.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3250, 3210, and 3150 December, with resistance at 3410, 3440, and 3470 December.

Alerts History
• 15-Oct-2020 11:00:06 AM – U.S. SEPTEMBER SOYBEAN CRUSH 161.491 MILLION BUSHELS – NOPA
• 15-Oct-2020 11:00:06 AM – U.S. SEPTEMBER SOYOIL STOCKS 1.433 BILLION LBS – NOPA
• 15-Oct-2020 11:00:06 AM – U.S. SEPTEMBER SOYMEAL EXPORTS 991,134 TONS – NOPA

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower with the price action yesterday in Chicago. China is back from its holiday and has been the big buyer in Palm Oil. India is also buying. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. The lack of labor has been a big problem. At least some of the plantation owners have asked for more migrant workers to cover the lack of workers that can be sourced locally. Demand reports from the private surveyors are stronger this month. Canola was a little lower abut held inside the recent trading range. Canola farmers are selling due to harvest pressure, but industry and speculators are buying. Canola is still considered relatively cheap in the world market.
Overnight News: AmSpec said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are 763,772 tons so far this month, from 780,305 tons last month. Intertek said that exports are 760,082 tons, from 779,160 tons last month. Indonesia said that its biofuels consumption was 6.17 million kiloliters this calendar year through the end of September.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 521.00, 519.00, and 515.00 November, with resistance at 529.00, 534.00, and 536.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2860, 2790, and 2740 January, with resistance at 2980, 3070, and 3100 January.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Oct 15
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary
statistics for the week ended Oct. 11, 2020. Figures in thousands of
metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2523.1 1026.9 352.8 577.5 53.2 1718.4 444.3 35.3 7784.1
Week Ago 2640.6 925.0 359.9 522.6 47.3 1785.9 530.1 38.9 7750.0
Year Ago 2236.1 606.1 183.5 398.9 18.8 1085.8 340.0 25.8 5342.8
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 387.2 168.2 70.8 148.4 21.1 436.1 56.0 7.5 1424.9
Week Ago 403.1 161.4 70.5 143.4 17.3 630.5 45.4 4.4 1661.3
To Date 4130.8 1090.7 746.9 1079.4 77.6 4644.8 1460.8 75.7 14601.9
Year Ago 3940.7 810.2 595.4 739.8 18.9 3655.6 1189.1 79.4 11584.0
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 244.4 151.0 47.0 66.3 4.3 319.6 39.0 0.0 1171.8
Week Ago 431.3 159.7 18.8 56.1 2.8 342.4 64.0 0.0 1359.6
To Date 5175.5 1069.2 161.1 538.1 24.6 2535.5 951.1 15.2 11669.0
Year Ago 3584.3 1159.5 116.2 231.1 1.1 1731.4 784.6 7.2 8395.1
EXPORTS
This Week 187.4 101.7 69.9 52.0 8.4 404.1 166.2 0.0 1223.9
Week Ago 529.6 51.0 84.3 52.8 0.9 223.2 61.2 0.0 1175.6
To Date 3939.7 588.7 449.3 514.4 51.6 2287.1 960.8 10.1 9570.1
Year Ago 3085.8 920.7 335.1 198.0 8.3 1527.0 736.5 12.5 7540.7
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 52.7 3.0 11.3 22.8 1.4 224.6 6.1 16.1 404.6
Week Ago 75.5 4.8 16.5 24.8 1.2 187.2 4.4 7.2 344.1
To Date 1031.7 73.7 138.8 227.9 12.7 1970.0 37.9 175.0 3939.6
Year Ago 846.0 58.2 64.3 252.0 7.3 2018.0 34.0 179.3 3716.9
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-
9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October +77 Dec +150 Dec +65 Dec +83 Nov +15 Dec N/A
November +77 Dec +65 Dec +85 Nov
December +74 Dec +70 Dec +86 Jan

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 15
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 497.60 -29.00 Nov 2020 up 0.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 537.40 12.00 Nov 2020 dn 0.80
Basis: Vancouver 551.40 26.00 Nov 2020 dn 0.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 765.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 760.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 745.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 712.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 682.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 767.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 762.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 747.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 715.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 685.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 775.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 695.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 3,020.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 191.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1470)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 324,902 lots, or 1.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 4,500 4,679 4,500 4,671 4,514 4,628 114 348 797
Jan-21 4,531 4,699 4,511 4,686 4,550 4,630 80 295,780 141,703
Mar-21 4,561 4,721 4,542 4,697 4,572 4,643 71 3,810 2,836
May-21 4,648 4,793 4,608 4,752 4,644 4,718 74 20,432 19,196
Jul-21 4,662 4,824 4,659 4,750 4,676 4,753 77 4,386 2,457
Sep-21 4,634 4,797 4,634 4,740 4,661 4,746 85 146 332
Corn
Turnover: 1,260,959 lots, or 32.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 2,542 2,555 2,506 2,554 2,542 2,527 -15 11,753 38,171
Jan-21 2,547 2,586 2,536 2,584 2,549 2,559 10 856,774 1,442,034
Mar-21 2,549 2,590 2,542 2,588 2,559 2,564 5 27,024 25,020
May-21 2,558 2,594 2,547 2,591 2,563 2,572 9 236,189 555,913
Jul-21 2,566 2,605 2,560 2,601 2,577 2,582 5 112,262 94,830
Sep-21 2,573 2,608 2,566 2,604 2,581 2,589 8 16,957 62,810
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,992,055 lots, or 6.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 3,176 3,248 3,161 3,240 3,206 3,209 3 5,910 23,904
Dec-20 3,206 3,291 3,194 3,276 3,239 3,258 19 17,429 2,568
Jan-21 3,212 3,279 3,188 3,275 3,234 3,243 9 1,223,241 1,334,625
Mar-21 3,095 3,202 3,095 3,200 3,136 3,160 24 55,989 33,208
May-21 3,019 3,092 3,002 3,091 3,044 3,053 9 520,888 1,087,051
Jul-21 2,956 3,010 2,936 3,010 2,967 2,984 17 76,322 22,135
Aug-21 2,983 3,048 2,978 3,045 3,004 3,021 17 10,465 9,072
Sep-21 3,003 3,064 2,983 3,063 3,018 3,026 8 81,811 138,572
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,965,200 lots, or 11.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-20 – – – 6,308 6,308 6,308 0 0 68
Nov-20 6,290 6,368 6,198 6,336 6,416 6,276 -140 98 570
Dec-20 6,180 6,192 6,032 6,156 6,328 6,078 -250 61,644 2,187
Jan-21 6,060 6,092 5,934 6,052 6,198 6,022 -176 1,186,330 368,988
Feb-21 6,044 6,048 5,890 6,010 6,158 5,986 -172 463,436 9,332
Mar-21 5,958 5,992 5,842 5,952 6,098 5,924 -174 13,391 3,976
Apr-21 5,874 5,916 5,812 5,846 6,020 5,882 -138 179,147 204
May-21 5,784 5,822 5,696 5,770 5,922 5,762 -160 59,404 90,024
Jun-21 5,684 5,730 5,684 5,692 5,898 5,694 -204 5 12
Jul-21 5,690 5,690 5,690 5,690 5,898 5,690 -208 1 3
Aug-21 – – – 5,854 5,854 5,854 0 0 2
Sep-21 5,660 5,660 5,554 5,586 5,740 5,586 -154 1,744 3,199
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,226,374 lots, or 84.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 6,994 7,136 6,992 7,104 7,234 7,066 -168 142 2,097
Dec-20 7,022 7,138 7,018 7,104 7,210 7,088 -122 1,737 1,446
Jan-21 7,020 7,042 6,860 6,992 7,120 6,968 -152 817,746 522,702
Mar-21 6,976 7,006 6,790 6,978 7,080 6,950 -130 9,824 7,427
May-21 6,820 6,834 6,674 6,784 6,910 6,764 -146 84,278 263,313
Jul-21 6,780 6,788 6,596 6,702 6,838 6,710 -128 174,381 6,674
Aug-21 6,732 6,732 6,586 6,678 6,810 6,684 -126 133,997 261
Sep-21 6,690 6,700 6,536 6,646 6,768 6,634 -134 4,269 9,385
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322