Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We start off the day with Business Inventories, Export Sales, Retail Sales MoM (SEP), Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (SEP), Retail Sales YoY (SEP) at 7:30 A.M., Industrial Production MoM (SEP), Manufacturing Production YoY (SEP) and Manufacturing Production MoM (SEP) at 8:15 A.M., Fed Williams speech at 8:45 A.M., Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel (OCT), Michigan 5-Tear Inflation Expectations Prel (OCT),, Michigan Current Conditions Prel (OCT), Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (OCT), Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel (OCT) at 9:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M. (16/OCT) at 12:00 P.M., Overall Net Capital Flows (AUG), Foreign Bins Investment (AUG), Net Long-Term Tic Flows (AUG) at 3:00 P.M., and IMF/World Bank Virtual Annual Meeting.
On the Hurricane front good news is that Disturbance 1is no longer considered a threat according to the National Hurricane Center and there is no Tropical activity expected in the next 48 hours.
In the Corn Front traders are anxiously waiting on the Export Sales data that will tell us who is buying and if there are new participants to the U.S. market. In this holiday week traders have heard whispers that China is buying again but still below the Phase 1 agreement. Corn futures in China hit record highs this week while their output is lower due to typhoons and in other places of their Corn Belt drought. Their stockpiles have been sold out and the markets expect supply shortages. In the overnight electronic session, the December corn is currently trading at 407 ¼ which is 3 ½ cents higher. The trading range has been 407 ¾ to 402 ½.
On the Ethanol Front Production and Stocks were up on the week. The Renewable Fuels Association said volume of gasoline supplied to the market was lower than last week but refiners’ imports were higher. This is a telling sign the industry is looking ahead and past 2020 with lessons learned throughout the pandemic, there is other ways to achieve a profit center. Global demand is increasing while the ethanol industry found new uses to market this product. There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The November ethanol settled at 1.430 and is currently showing 1 bid @ 1.411 with 0 offers with Open Interest 66 contracts.
On the Crude Oil Front, the majors are playing it cool, not ready to make a move to invest further on infrastructure as the Americans are focused on the election less than three weeks away. OILPRICE.com Dan Doyle, who is also the president of Reliance Well Services, a hydraulic fracturing company based in Pennsylvania, and spelled it out perfectly that a Biden Presidency could end the oil boom. The facts are so telling, as if you look at the past administration and were not helpful to the Energy Sector. In the overnight electronic session, the November crude oil is currently TRADING AT 4059 WHICH IS 37 POINTS LOWER. The trading range has been 4105 to 4029.
On the Natural Gas Front prices have been supported with U.S. LNG exports picking up and colder weather we have just begun to realize will boost heating demand. Although the market becomes choppy near the highs and lows, I believe we will shortly see a running of the bulls. I also believe the boots on the ground; the producers can’t wait until the election is election is over so they can get their bearings straight on a boom or gloom. In the overnight electronic session, the November natural gas is currently trading at 2.801 which is .026 higher. The trading range has been 2.810 to 2.759.
Have A Great Trading Day!