About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher on the uncertain production prospects with so much of the Winter Wheat crop having trouble getting planted due to dry conditions. Western Europe is likely to get some good rains in the short term, but southern Russia could stay dry or get very light showers. Some showers are forecast for Ukraine this week, but the eastern sections of the country should stay dry. Kazakhstan is dry. These areas are trying to plant the next Winter Wheat crop but the dry weather and the dry soils are keeping farmers out of the fields. Less production is likely in Argentina due to drought, but some showers were reported in dry areas over the weekend. About quarter of Argentine growing areas are affected after the beneficial rains. Western Australia has also been very dry. Conditions are improved in the US after some rains fell in the Great Plains but the western Great Plains remains mostly hot and dry. The Midwest has had good rains but will need more soon.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should trend to below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will trend to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should trend to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 587, 576, and 561 December, with resistance at 604, 611, and 614 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 524, 518, and 515 December, with resistance at 540, 543, and 553 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 539, 531, and 523 December, and resistance is at 553, 556, and 557 December.

RICE
General Comments Rice was a little lower in early trading but then rallied to close strong. US export demand was very strong once again last week and were a marketing year high. Strong sales are anticipated again this week. Central and South American countries were the best buyers, followed by eastern Asia. The harvest has been active in northern states with good field yields reported. Southern Louisiana and Texas are done with the first crop harvest and are waiting for the second crop to mature. Quality is said to be very good, especially in Arkansas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1234, 1220, and 1210 November, with resistance at 1255, 1260, and 1275 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher on news that China bought 420,000 tons of US Corn. The harvest continues and many producers are storing the Corn to wait for higher prices. Harvest reports from the country suggest that production of a good crop is likely. Demand is holding strong for exports, but domestic demand was cut back from previous estimates. The demand has come primarily from China as the state companies bought for the reserve. The harvest has expanded into the Midwest with very good harvest conditions. The Midwest harvest has been slow as the Corn is slow to dry down.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 387, 385, and 382 December, and resistance is at 399, 401, and 404 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 274 December. Support is at 281, 279, and 278 December, and resistance is at 290, 295, and 297 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher on news that China had bought 240,000 tons of US Soybeans. Reports indicate that the producer is selling Soybeans right off the combine or is delivering against previous contracts. Chinese buying for the reserve is almost finished, but the crushers still need to buy. Soybeans were the leader to the upside due to the strong Chinese demand. The trade generally expects China to shift its buying back to Brazil in the near future, but Brazil has been hot and dry and parts of Argentina have also been dry and some of the early planting has been delayed. That might keep the Chinese buying in the US for a little longer, but only for the crushers and not for the reserve. Brazil is expected to get rains starting this weekend, so all of the projected Soybeans area will get planted and a big crop from Brazil is still expected.
Overnight News: China bought 261,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1032, 1023, and 1013 November, and resistance is at 1060, 1080, and 1084 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 353.00, 349.00, and 341.00 December, and resistance is at 369.00, 372.00, and 375.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3630 and 3770 December. Support is at 3310, 3250, and 3210 December, with resistance at 3440, 3470, and 3500 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower with the price action yesterday in Chicago. China is back from its holiday and has been the big buyer in Palm Oil. India is also buying. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. The lack of labor has been a big problem. At least some of the plantation owners have asked for more migrant workers to cover the lack of workers that can be sourced locally. Demand reports from the private surveyors are stronger this month. Canola was a little higher abut held inside the recent trading range. Canola farmers are selling due to harvest pressure, but industry and speculators are buying. Canola is still considered relatively cheap in the world market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 519.00, 515.00, and 508.00 November, with resistance at 529.00, 534.00, and 536.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3180 December. Support is at 2950, 2900, and 2870 December, with resistance at 3030, 3080, and 3110 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October +74 Dec +160 Dec +54 Dec +78 Nov +15 Dec N/A
November +73 Dec +65 Dec +82 Nov
December +73 Dec +70 Dec +80 Jan

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 13
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 498.70 -29.00 Nov 2020 up 4.50
Basis: Thunder Bay 537.30 12.00 Nov 2020 dn 2.00
Basis: Vancouver 551.30 26.00 Nov 2020 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 765.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 760.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 742.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 712.50 -15.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 682.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 767.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 762.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 745.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 715.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 685.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 770.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 695.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 3,020.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 193.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1520)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 146,604 lots, or 6.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 4,530 4,553 4,500 4,514 4,506 4,514 8 39 992
Jan-21 4,545 4,577 4,522 4,549 4,530 4,550 20 136,418 106,286
Mar-21 4,570 4,595 4,554 4,571 4,551 4,572 21 1,221 2,710
May-21 4,638 4,666 4,620 4,648 4,619 4,644 25 7,741 17,924
Jul-21 4,680 4,696 4,656 4,676 4,652 4,676 24 1,152 2,873
Sep-21 4,654 4,677 4,638 4,646 4,634 4,661 27 33 260
Corn
Turnover: 1,596,260 lots, or 40.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 2,550 2,566 2,504 2,532 2,553 2,542 -11 13,027 37,684
Jan-21 2,566 2,572 2,514 2,549 2,575 2,549 -26 1,127,609 1,411,372
Mar-21 2,571 2,576 2,525 2,554 2,584 2,559 -25 24,642 24,509
May-21 2,580 2,582 2,532 2,558 2,599 2,563 -36 279,389 536,551
Jul-21 2,591 2,593 2,546 2,568 2,611 2,577 -34 128,810 93,745
Sep-21 2,600 2,600 2,554 2,574 2,618 2,581 -37 22,783 59,339
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,612,951 lots, or 51.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 3,208 3,220 3,185 3,202 3,208 3,206 -2 11,122 26,639
Dec-20 3,246 3,256 3,214 3,229 3,245 3,239 -6 7,633 2,123
Jan-21 3,240 3,250 3,213 3,231 3,230 3,234 4 999,043 1,311,873
Mar-21 3,130 3,159 3,120 3,135 3,115 3,136 21 39,786 32,745
May-21 3,037 3,062 3,022 3,044 3,030 3,044 14 421,336 1,062,259
Jul-21 2,961 2,983 2,951 2,969 2,958 2,967 9 71,909 22,252
Aug-21 3,000 3,019 2,988 3,003 2,995 3,004 9 5,059 8,928
Sep-21 3,009 3,036 3,003 3,017 3,003 3,018 15 57,063 134,661
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,587,120 lots, or 98.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-20 – – – 6,308 6,308 6,308 0 0 68
Nov-20 6,478 6,506 6,340 6,362 6,454 6,416 -38 83 620
Dec-20 6,388 6,388 6,248 6,258 6,326 6,328 2 79,546 1,676
Jan-21 6,260 6,274 6,108 6,140 6,220 6,198 -22 1,102,219 395,763
Feb-21 6,222 6,224 6,064 6,090 6,178 6,158 -20 282,244 9,542
Mar-21 6,146 6,168 6,014 6,048 6,126 6,098 -28 10,776 3,890
Apr-21 6,058 6,070 5,958 5,994 6,094 6,020 -74 65,898 174
May-21 5,954 5,982 5,842 5,876 5,954 5,922 -32 45,023 86,665
Jun-21 – – – 5,898 5,898 5,898 0 0 11
Jul-21 5,888 5,912 5,810 5,900 5,888 5,898 10 110 4
Aug-21 – – – 5,854 5,920 5,854 -66 0 2
Sep-21 5,786 5,820 5,688 5,700 5,808 5,740 -68 1,221 2,659
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,261,613 lots, or 88.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 7,244 7,270 7,180 7,180 7,248 7,234 -14 105 2,137
Dec-20 7,240 7,270 7,158 7,176 7,230 7,210 -20 1,151 1,231
Jan-21 7,144 7,190 7,054 7,088 7,138 7,120 -18 700,147 537,791
Mar-21 7,098 7,146 7,020 7,054 7,096 7,080 -16 12,396 7,267
May-21 6,930 6,972 6,850 6,886 6,920 6,910 -10 69,514 261,363
Jul-21 6,852 6,898 6,772 6,812 6,828 6,838 10 280,951 6,587
Aug-21 6,802 6,828 6,758 6,762 6,792 6,810 18 193,568 251
Sep-21 6,780 6,836 6,708 6,748 6,776 6,768 -8 3,781 7,674
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322