Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments Cotton closed higher on follow through speculative buying. Trends are up. Hurricane Delta moved into the Southeast and brought some heavy rains. Ideas are that most of the Cotton crops in the region have open bolls now and that some significant damage might have been done due to wind and rain. Am extended dry period is in the forecast now which will help with quality concerns as the drier air can bleach the fibers white. The harvest has been active. The weekly export sales report showed just moderate demand. Demand should stay weak as long as the Coronavirus is around. Shopping is hard to do and many people are still unemployed. This is true in just about all countries.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should trend to below normal in the Delta and in the Southeast. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The USDA average price is now 62.10 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 24,232 bales, from 23,836 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 90 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 7180 December. Support is at 6800, 6750, and 6690 December, with resistance of 6950, 7060 and 7090 December.
Date 11-Oct 4-Oct 2019 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 90 83 86 83
Cotton Harvested 26 17 30 27
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 12 18 30 31 9
Cotton Last Week 10 17 33 32 8
Cotton Last Year 4 17 41 30 8
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower in range trading. Florida production was estimated at 57 million boxes, with all varieties production down. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms with a record amount of tropical storms hitting the US. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food services are suffering as no one is really dining out or are dining out and drinking out to a very limited extent in most states. Florida production prospects for the new crop were hurt by an extended flowering period, but the weather is good now with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Showers are falling in Brazil now and conditions are improving. Mexican crop conditions are called good to very good with ample rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions today, then isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 119.00, 121.00, and 125.00 November. Support is at 114.00, 112.00, and 111.00 November, with resistance at 119.00, 121.00, and 126.00 November.
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and lower in London. The Real closed a little higher yesterday. Vietnam is getting a lot of rain now and the worries have abated and price trends in London are down. Some areas are flooding but ideas are that Vietnam is improving. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The Brazil harvest is over and producers are selling due to the recent extreme weakness in the Real. Ideas are that production is very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. Central America is also offering right now and offers are increasing. The weather is mostly good in South America and Central America.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are little changed today at 1.099 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 106.65 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 108.00, 106.00, and 105.00 December, and resistance is at 113.00, 115.00 and 119.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1190 November. Support is at 1210, 1180, and 1170 November, and resistance is at 1250, 1270, and 1290 November.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. About 45% of the crush this year will go to Sugar, from 35% last year. It has been dry lately to affect Sugarcane production and producers are less aggressive sellers. Rains are starting now, so production prospects overall are good. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but the Coronavirus has made exports hard. The Indian government has not yet announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no one knows how much to charge yet. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China to hinder irrigation of the crops. The EU is having problems with its Sugar beets crop due to weather and disease. The US southern Sugarcane crop probably suffered some damage in Louisiana due to big winds over the weekend. Demand appears to be about average.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. USDA said that US Sugar beets are now 72% harvested, fom 46% last week, 27% last year, and 47% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1380, 1370, and 1330 March, and resistance is at 1450, 1490, and 1530 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 380.00, 377.00, and 368.00 December, and resistance is at 390.00, 395.00, and 396.00 December.
General Comments: New York and London were lower. Trends are turning down in both markets. The harvest for the next main crop is spreading to much of West Africa and very strong production is expected. Some concern is noted in Nigeria as rains keep falling and make it hard to sun dry the beans. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic. Ivory Coast is in the middle of the presidential campaign season and some violence s expected.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions today and showers this weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.610 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2360, 2350, and 2290 December. Support is at 2330, 2300, and 2270 December, with resistance at 2450, 2490, and 2520 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1530 December. Support is at 1620, 1590, and 1570 December, with resistance at 1700, 1730, and 1770 December.