About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Oct 13
*CORRECTIONS AT BOTTOM OF REPORT ARE INCLUDED IN CURRENT MARKET YEAR TO DATE*
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING OCT 08, 2020
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 10/08/2020 10/01/2020 10/10/2019 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 1,896 1,397 0 9,020 8,625
CORN 632,184 884,157 480,647 4,319,958 2,506,319
FLAXSEED 0 0 100 389 172
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 996 798
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 192 157,647 38,825 461,947 228,176
SOYBEANS 2,157,012 2,004,867 956,056 9,095,531 5,162,862
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 514,086 678,715 497,468 10,437,123 9,498,368
Total 3,305,370 3,726,783 1,973,096 24,324,964 17,405,320
————————————————————————-

Crop Progress
Date 11-Oct 4-Oct 2019 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 90 83 86 83
Cotton Harvested 26 17 30 27
Corn Mature 94 87 69 87
Corn Harvested 41 25 20 32
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 93 85 81 90
Soybeans Harvested sixty one 38 23 42
Sorghum Mature ninety 77 76 79
Sorghum Harvested forty nine 38 38 43
Peanuts Harvested twenty eight 17 51 42
Rice Harvested 83 71 84 87
Sugarbeets Harvested 72 46 27 47
Sunflowers Harvested 22 11 4 10
Winter Wheat Planted 68 52 61 61
Winter Wheat Emerged 41 24 37 35

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 12 18 30 31 9
Cotton Last Week 10 17 33 32 8
Cotton Last Year 4 17 41 30 8

Corn This Week 5 9 25 46 15
Corn Last Week 4 9 25 48 14
Corn Last Year 4 11 30 44 11

Soybeans This Week 3 8 26 49 14
Soybeans Last Week 3 7 26 50 14
Soybeans Last Year 4 10 32 45 9

Sorghum This Week 5 12 33 38 12
Sorghum Last Week 5 12 32 40 11
Sorghum Last Year 1 6 28 51 14

Peanuts This Week 4 10 26 50 10
Peanuts Last Week 4 7 28 51 10
Peanuts Last Year 5 11 30 46 9

Pastures and Ranges This Week 16 24 38 20 2
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 16 22 36 22 4
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 10 18 29 35 8

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly a little higher, but traded much higher early in the session. There was no real bullish news. World demand for US Wheat depends mostly on lower prices for US Wheat to compete with Russia, Europe, and other sellers. The overseas weather is mixed. Western Europe is likely to get some good rains in the short term, but southern Russia could stay dry or get very light showers. Some showers are forecast for Ukraine this week, but the eastern sections of the country should stay dry. Kazakhstan is dry. These areas are trying to plant the next Winter Wheat crop but the dry weather and the dry soils are keeping farmers out of the fields. Less production is likely in Argentina due to drought, but some showers were reported in dry areas over the weekend. About quarter of Argentine growing areas are affected after the beneficial rains. Western Australia has also been very dry. Conditions are improved in the US after some rains fell in the Great Plains but the western Great Plains remains mostly hot and dry. The Midwest has had good rains but will need more soon.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should trend to below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will trend to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should trend to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 587, 576, and 561 December, with resistance at 604, 611, and 614 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 525, 518, and 515 December, with resistance at 543, 553, and 555 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 539, 531, and 523 December, and resistance is at 549, 553, and 556 December.

RICE
General Comments Rice was a little lower. US export demand was very strong once again last week and were a marketing year high. Central and South American countries were the best buyers, followed by eastern Asia. The harvest has been active in northern states with good field yields reported. Southern Louisiana and Texas are done with the first crop harvest and are waiting for the second crop to mature. Quality is said to be very good, especially in Arkansas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to near to nelow normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1185 November. Support is at 1220, 1210, and 1204 November, with resistance at 1252, 1260, and 1275 November.

DJ Thai Rice Prices Fall as Buyers Hold off on New Orders — Market Talk
0208 GMT – Thai rice export prices further declined 1%-4% due to a lack of new inquiries, the U.S. Department of Agriculture says in a note. “Foreign buyers are waiting for new crop rice supplies to enter the market, particularly for fragrant rice.” New-crop rice supplies are expected to begin entering the market in the next couple of weeks, it says. It adds that domestic prices of white rice are also under downward pressure, which more than offsets the strengthening of the Thai baht. Thai white rice was selling at $848 a metric ton in the week ended Oct. 5. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Oct 14
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 16.98 10.84 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.67 11.22 0.00
Brokens 10.77 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher in recovery trading. There was no real bullish news seen, but Mexico did buy 110,000 tons of US Corn. Ideas are that US producers harvested a lot of Corn over the weekend but they are not really selling. Harvest reports from the country suggest that production of a good crop is likely. Demand is holding strong for exports, but domestic demand was cut back from previous estimates. The demand has come primarily from China as the state companies bought for the reserve, but that buying appears to be almost complete now. The harvest has expanded into the Midwest with very good harvest conditions. The Midwest harvest has been slow as the Corn is slow to dry down.
Overnight News: China bought 420,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 387, 385, and 382 December, and resistance is at 399, 401, and 404 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 274 December. Support is at 281, 279, and 278 December, and resistance is at 290, 295, and 297 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher in recovery trading. The harvest has started to expand and reports indicated that the producer is selling Soybeans right off the combine or is delivering against previous contracts. Chinese buying for the reserve is almost finished. Ideas are that individual crushers are still with positions to buy. Soybeans were the leader to the upside due to the strong Chinese demand until this week. The trade generally expects China to shift its buying back to Brazil in the near future, but Brazil has been hot and dry and parts of Argentina have also been dry and some of the early planting has been delayed. That might keep the Chinese buying in the US for a little longer, but only for the crushers and not for the reserve. Brazil is expected to get rains starting this weekend, so all of the projected Soybeans area will get planted and a big crop from Brazil is still expected.
Overnight News: China bought 264,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1014, 981, and 962 November. Support is at 1032, 1023, and 1013 November, and resistance is at 1049, 1060, and 1080 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 341.00, 340.00, and 335.00 December. Support is at 353.00, 349.00, and 341.00 December, and resistance is at 360.00, 369.00, and 372.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3630 and 3770 December. Support is at 3310, 3250, and 3210 December, with resistance at 3440, 3470, and 3500 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower with the price action yesterday in Chicago. China is back from its holiday and has been the big buyer in Palm Oil. India is also buying. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. The lack of labor has been a big problem. At least some of the plantation owners have asked for more migrant workers to cover the lack of workers that can be sourced locally. Demand reports from the private surveyors are stronger this month. Canola was a little lower as it caught up to the price action in Chicago. Canola farmers are selling due to harvest pressure, but industry and speculators are buying. Canola is still considered relatively cheap in the world market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 519.00, 515.00, and 508.00 November, with resistance at 529.00, 534.00, and 536.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3180 December. Support is at 2950, 2900, and 2870 December, with resistance at 3030, 3080, and 3110 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October +74 Dec +160 Dec +54 Dec +78 Nov +15 Dec N/A
November +73 Dec +65 Dec +82 Nov
December +73 Dec +70 Dec +80 Jan

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 13
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 498.70 -29.00 Nov 2020 up 4.50
Basis: Thunder Bay 537.30 12.00 Nov 2020 dn 2.00
Basis: Vancouver 551.30 26.00 Nov 2020 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 777.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 770.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 757.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 727.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 700.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 780.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 772.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 760.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 730.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 702.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 780.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 705.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 3,070.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 195.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1490)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 117,755 lots, or 5.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 4,528 4,528 4,495 4,515 4,505 4,506 1 48 993
Jan-21 4,540 4,551 4,511 4,543 4,532 4,530 -2 109,720 103,326
Mar-21 4,550 4,575 4,539 4,570 4,576 4,551 -25 1,617 2,642
May-21 4,615 4,640 4,599 4,639 4,622 4,619 -3 5,675 17,385
Jul-21 4,651 4,667 4,635 4,663 4,655 4,652 -3 675 2,778
Sep-21 4,627 4,656 4,619 4,647 4,647 4,634 -13 20 255
Corn
Turnover: 1,673,411 lots, or 43.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 2,533 2,572 2,533 2,550 2,532 2,553 21 9,669 38,272
Jan-21 2,556 2,595 2,556 2,566 2,556 2,575 19 1,201,189 1,420,211
Mar-21 2,568 2,603 2,568 2,572 2,567 2,584 17 27,662 24,020
May-21 2,595 2,624 2,577 2,578 2,592 2,599 7 298,209 526,051
Jul-21 2,609 2,637 2,588 2,589 2,606 2,611 5 114,652 92,651
Sep-21 2,612 2,638 2,595 2,596 2,612 2,618 6 22,030 55,242
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,533,076 lots, or 48.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 3,210 3,226 3,187 3,208 3,220 3,208 -12 7,057 30,294
Dec-20 3,246 3,266 3,220 3,243 3,251 3,245 -6 7,492 2,052
Jan-21 3,231 3,252 3,210 3,233 3,240 3,230 -10 1,002,802 1,336,580
Mar-21 3,093 3,131 3,093 3,125 3,115 3,115 0 33,910 32,661
May-21 3,016 3,044 3,014 3,036 3,029 3,030 1 362,156 1,062,406
Jul-21 2,993 2,993 2,949 2,960 2,973 2,958 -15 71,693 21,752
Aug-21 2,989 3,008 2,987 2,996 3,004 2,995 -9 3,712 9,020
Sep-21 2,999 3,016 2,992 3,007 3,009 3,003 -6 44,254 125,148
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,093,828 lots, or 67.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-20 – – – 6,308 6,308 6,308 0 0 68
Nov-20 6,442 6,474 6,418 6,474 6,448 6,454 6 131 657
Dec-20 6,344 6,376 6,282 6,370 6,324 6,326 2 2,572 1,467
Jan-21 6,252 6,282 6,170 6,276 6,212 6,220 8 951,574 423,877
Feb-21 6,170 6,234 6,128 6,226 6,168 6,178 10 74,869 9,381
Mar-21 6,162 6,186 6,084 6,174 6,124 6,126 2 9,490 3,817
Apr-21 6,050 6,064 6,018 6,062 6,038 6,094 56 13,578 177
May-21 5,982 5,986 5,910 5,978 5,948 5,954 6 41,240 83,039
Jun-21 5,898 5,898 5,898 5,898 5,882 5,898 16 1 11
Jul-21 5,888 5,890 5,888 5,890 5,904 5,888 -16 4 4
Aug-21 – – – 5,920 5,920 5,920 0 0 2
Sep-21 5,850 5,850 5,758 5,804 5,828 5,808 -20 369 1,897
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 911,917 lots, or 64.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 7,264 7,320 7,208 7,216 7,258 7,248 -10 256 2,147
Dec-20 7,252 7,264 7,184 7,250 7,226 7,230 4 1,982 1,113
Jan-21 7,180 7,190 7,084 7,158 7,148 7,138 -10 656,158 545,338
Mar-21 7,132 7,142 7,044 7,116 7,106 7,096 -10 11,710 6,934
May-21 6,958 6,964 6,874 6,936 6,930 6,920 -10 70,400 253,650
Jul-21 7,118 7,118 6,800 6,862 6,852 6,828 -24 97,314 6,376
Aug-21 6,836 6,848 6,792 6,832 6,816 6,792 -24 70,805 247
Sep-21 6,830 6,830 6,736 6,794 6,798 6,776 -22 3,292 6,122
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322