Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments Cotton closed higher and trends are up. Hurricane Delta moved into the Southeast and brought some heavy rains. Ideas are that most of the Cotton crops in the region have open bolls now and that some significant damage might have been done due to wind and rain. The harvest has been active. The weekly export sales report showed just moderate demand. Demand should stay weak as long as the Coronavirus is around. Shopping is hard to do and many people are still unemployed. This is true in just about all countries.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should trend to above normal in the Delta and in the Southeast. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 62.10 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 23,836 bales, from 23,836 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were post4ee for delivery against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 90 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 7180 December. Support is at 6750, 6690, and 6570 December, with resistance of 6890, 6950 and 7060 December.
General Comments: FCOJ was higher once again last week. Florida production was estimated at 57 million boxes, with all varieties production down. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms with a record amount of tropical storms hitting the US. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food seas no one is really dining out. Florida production prospects for the new crop were hurt by an extended flowering period, but the weather is good now with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Showers are falling in Brazil now.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions today and tomorrow, then isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 119.00, 121.00, and 125.00 November. Support is at 114.00, 112.00, and 111.00 November, with resistance at 119.00, 121.00, and 126.00 November.
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and in London. The Real closed a little higher yesterday. London continues to lead the way down. London had been better supported due to stronger demand ideas and worries about the weather in Vietnam but the country is getting a lot of rain now and the worries have abated and price trends are down. Some areas are flooding but ideas are that Vietnam is improving. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The Brazil harvest is over and producers are selling due to the recent extreme weakness in the Real. Ideas are that production is very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. Central America is also offering right now and offers are increasing. The weather is mostly good in South America and Central America.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.099 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 106.30 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 106.00, 105.00, and 103.00 December, and resistance is at 113.00, 115.00 and 119.00 December. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1220, 1210, and 1180 November, and resistance is at 1270, 1280, and 1320 November.
DJ Brazil Coffee Exports Rose 8.6% in September, Cecafe Says
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SÃO PAULO–Brazilian coffee exports rose in September as shipments of the robusta variety almost doubled from a year earlier, according to exporters group Cecafe.
The South American country exported 3.8 million 132-pound bags of coffee last month, a record for September and an increase of 8.6% from the same month a year earlier, Cecafe said Tuesday. Sales abroad of the arabica variety of coffee rose 1.4%, to 2.8 million bags, while exports of robusta beans jumped 93.8%, to 672,465 bags, from a year ago.
Sales abroad of roasted and soluble coffee fell 18.5% from a year earlier, to 283,943 bags, Cecafe said.
Brazilian government crop agency Conab said in September it expects Brazilian farmers to produce a near-record 61.6 million bags of coffee in 2020, behind only the 61.7 million bags produced in 2018. Brazil is the world’s biggest producer and exporter of coffee, growing about one-third of total world output.
Brazil has a two-year coffee production cycle in which output is bigger in even-numbered years and declines in odd-numbered years as the plants recover from the previous year. That left stocks at or near a historic low in earlier this year following the 2019 season. Brazil’s coffee harvest for 2020 has begun, making more coffee available for export.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower after making new highs for the move. World petroleum prices are a little lower. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. About 45% of the crush this year will go to Sugar, from 35% last year. It has been dry lately to affect Sugarcane production and producers are less aggressive sellers. Rains are starting now, so production prospects overall are good. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but the Coronavirus has made exports hard. The Indian government has not yet announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no one knows how much to charge yet. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China to hinder irrigation of the crops. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease. Demand appears to be about average.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1380, 1370, and 1330 March, and resistance is at 1450, 1490, and 1530 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 380.00, 377.00, and 368.00 December, and resistance is at 387.00, 389.00, and 395.00 December.
General Comments: New York was a little higher and London was lower. Trends are turning sideways to down in both markets. The harvest for the next main crop is spreading to much of West Africa and very strong production is expected. Some concern is noted in Nigeria as rains keep falling and make it hard to sun dry the beans. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic. Ivory Coast is in the middle of the presidential campaign season and some violence s expected.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions today and showers this weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.622 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2400, 2360, and 2350 December. Support is at 2420, 2400, and 2330 December, with resistance at 2500, 2520, and 2540 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1680, 1670, and 1530 December. Support is at 1660, 1620, and 1590 December, with resistance at 1700, 1730, and 1770 December.