About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly a little lower as a round of speculative long liquidation hit the pits. There was no real bullish news out over the weekend and USDA was closed yesterday for any demand news World demand for US Wheat depends mostly on lower prices for US Wheat to compete with Russia, Europe, and other sellers. The overseas weather is mixed. Western Europe is likely to get some good rains in the short term, but southern Russia could stay dry. Some showers are forecast for Ukraine this week, but the eastern sections of the country should stay dry. The country and Kazakhstan have both been dry. These areas are trying to plant the next Winter Wheat crop but the dry weather and the dry soils are keeping farmers out of the fields. Less production is likely in Argentina due to drought, but some showers were reported in dry areas over the weekend. About quarter of Argentine growing areas are affected after the beneficial rains. Western Australia has also been very dry. Conditions are improved in the US after some rains fell in the Great Plains but the western Great Plains remains mostly hot and dry. The Midwest has had good rains but will need more soon.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 587, 576, and 561 December, with resistance at 600, 611, and 614 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 525, 518, and 515 December, with resistance at 543, 553, and 555 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 539, 531, and 523 December, and resistance is at 547, 553, and 556 December.

RICE
General Comments Rice was lower after Hurricane Delta did little, if any, damage to crops. US export demand was very strong once again last week and were a marketing year high. Central and South American countries were the best buyers, followed by eastern Asia. The harvest has been active in northern states with good field yields reported. Southern Louisiana and Texas are done with the first crop harvest and are waiting for the second crop to mature. Quality is said to be very good, especially in Arkansas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions but big rains this weekend from the hurricane. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1185 November. Support is at 1220, 1210, and 1204 November, with resistance at 1254, 1260, and 1275 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower as speculative long liquidation hit the pit. There was no real bullish news seen over the weekend and USDA was closed yesterday to keep any new export sales announcements until today. Ideas are that US producers harvested a lot of Corn over the weekend but they are not really selling. Harvest reports from the country suggest that production of a good crop is likely. Demand is holding strong for exports, but domestic demand was cut back from previous estimates. The demand has come primarily from China as the state companies bought for the reserve, but that buying appears to be almost complete now. The harvest has expanded into the Midwest with very good harvest conditions. The Midwest harvest has been slow as the Corn is slow to dry down.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 110,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 387, 385, and 382 December, and resistance is at 399, 401, and 404 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 274 December. Support is at 281, 279, and 278 December, and resistance is at 290, 295, and 297 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower as speculative long liquidation hit the pits. The harvest has started to expand and reports indicated that the producer is selling Soybeans right off the combine or is delivering against previous contracts. Chinese buying for the reserve is almost finished. Ideas are that individual crushers are still with positions to buy. Soybeans were the leader to the upside due to the strong Chinese demand until this week. The trade generally expects China to shift its buying back to Brazil in the near future, but Brazil has been hot and dry and parts of Argentina have also been dry and some of the early planting has been delayed. That might keep the Chinese buying in the US for a little longer, but only for the crushers and not for the reserve. Brazil is expected to get rains starting this weekend, so all of the projected Soybeans area will get planted and a big crop from Brazil is still expected.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1014, 981, and 962 November. Support is at 1023, 1013, and 995 November, and resistance is at 1049, 1060, and 1080 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 353.00, 349.00, and 341.00 December, and resistance is at 360.00, 369.00, and 372.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3250, 3210, and 3150 December, with resistance at 3440, 3470, and 3500 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on ideas of decreasing production and stronger demand. China is back from its holiday and has been the big buyer in Palm Oil. India is also buying. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. The lack of labor has been a big problem. At least some of the plantation owners have asked for more migrant workers to cover the lack of workers that can be sourced locally. Demand reports from the private surveyors are stronger this month. Canola was closed for Thanksgiving Day. Canola farmers are selling due to harvest pressure, but industry and speculators are buying. The Canadian Dollar is higher but Canola is still considered relatively cheap in the world market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 536.00, 538.00, and 554.00 November. Support is at 522.00, 519.00, and 513.00 November, with resistance at 529.00, 534.00, and 536.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3180 December. Support is at 2950, 2900, and 2870 December, with resistance at 3030, 3080, and 3110 December.

DJ Malaysia’s September Palm Oil Exports 1.61M Tons; Up 1.9% -MPOB
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 1.9% on month at 1.61 million metric tons in September, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the September crop data and revised numbers for August, issued by MPOB:
September August Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,869,339 1,863,309 Up 0.32%
Palm Oil Exports 1,612,169 1,582,359 Up 1.88%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 134,714 102,379 Up 31.58%
Palm Oil Imports 48,273 32,311 Up 49.4%
Closing Stocks 1,725,120 1,704,060 Up 1.24%
Crude Palm Oil 934,710 930,990 Up 0.4%
Processed Palm Oil 790,410 773,070 Up 2.24%
This content was automatically published based on data and/or text from the original source. For feedback, write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October +70 Dec +159 Dec +56 Dec +77 Nov +15 Dec N/A
November +72 Dec +65 Dec +82 Nov
December +73 Dec +70 Dec +79 Jan
68

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 9
WINNIPEG, Oct. 9 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the
closing cash canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 493.80 -29.00 Nov 2020 dn 2.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 539.30 12.00 Nov 2020 up 4.50
Basis: Vancouver 551.30 24.00 Nov 2020 up 4.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 777.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 772.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 752.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 730.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 702.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 780.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 775.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 755.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 732.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 705.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 780.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 700.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 3,080.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 195.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.140)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 136,363 lots, or 6.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 4,547 4,547 4,478 4,510 4,527 4,505 -22 107 996
Jan-21 4,572 4,592 4,504 4,535 4,543 4,532 -11 127,828 105,530
Mar-21 4,596 4,608 4,538 4,561 4,572 4,576 4 636 2,711
May-21 4,642 4,663 4,594 4,620 4,632 4,622 -10 7,056 16,107
Jul-21 4,685 4,686 4,635 4,649 4,665 4,655 -10 682 2,722
Sep-21 4,681 4,681 4,571 4,662 4,653 4,647 -6 54 248
Corn
Turnover: 971,459 lots, or 24.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 2,529 2,546 2,519 2,538 2,519 2,532 13 7,990 40,476
Jan-21 2,575 2,575 2,544 2,562 2,549 2,556 7 705,659 1,406,586
Mar-21 2,579 2,581 2,557 2,573 2,563 2,567 4 18,212 24,314
May-21 2,604 2,609 2,582 2,596 2,588 2,592 4 165,854 559,596
Jul-21 2,615 2,623 2,597 2,610 2,601 2,606 5 60,227 89,753
Sep-21 2,625 2,626 2,604 2,616 2,608 2,612 4 13,517 53,099
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,960,053 lots, or 62.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 3,263 3,263 3,198 3,214 3,247 3,220 -27 10,020 33,454
Dec-20 3,284 3,290 3,223 3,260 3,272 3,251 -21 8,366 2,139
Jan-21 3,270 3,279 3,217 3,238 3,273 3,240 -33 1,281,866 1,358,785
Mar-21 3,112 3,139 3,093 3,115 3,138 3,115 -23 35,447 30,996
May-21 3,052 3,054 3,007 3,029 3,042 3,029 -13 454,566 1,033,384
Jul-21 3,001 3,001 2,949 2,963 3,001 2,973 -28 110,005 20,428
Aug-21 3,032 3,032 2,990 3,001 3,023 3,004 -19 2,725 8,493
Sep-21 3,027 3,040 2,988 3,006 3,015 3,009 -6 57,058 118,283
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,160,132 lots, or 71.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-20 – – – 6,308 6,308 6,308 0 0 68
Nov-20 6,486 6,500 6,400 6,442 6,450 6,448 -2 125 660
Dec-20 6,356 6,406 6,288 6,334 6,372 6,324 -48 7,599 1,556
Jan-21 6,230 6,268 6,136 6,228 6,210 6,212 2 980,766 400,729
Feb-21 6,186 6,222 6,092 6,184 6,196 6,168 -28 109,064 9,001
Mar-21 6,152 6,176 6,046 6,140 6,138 6,124 -14 14,311 3,390
Apr-21 6,036 6,068 6,012 6,068 6,094 6,038 -56 15 178
May-21 5,972 6,008 5,870 5,956 5,968 5,948 -20 47,720 80,511
Jun-21 5,914 5,926 5,758 5,926 5,872 5,882 10 5 12
Jul-21 5,902 5,914 5,902 5,904 5,830 5,904 74 6 3
Aug-21 5,920 5,920 5,920 5,920 5,810 5,920 110 1 2
Sep-21 5,850 5,890 5,760 5,818 5,846 5,828 -18 520 1,729
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 875,113 lots, or 62.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 7,238 7,296 7,172 7,266 7,250 7,258 8 370 2,151
Dec-20 7,230 7,276 7,150 7,242 7,242 7,226 -16 1,066 698
Jan-21 7,198 7,212 7,064 7,162 7,158 7,148 -10 678,293 547,415
Mar-21 7,150 7,172 7,026 7,120 7,120 7,106 -14 7,998 6,238
May-21 6,978 6,998 6,846 6,936 6,938 6,930 -8 89,266 252,484
Jul-21 6,898 6,924 6,768 6,860 6,864 6,852 -12 65,711 6,034
Aug-21 6,862 6,888 6,742 6,836 6,832 6,816 -16 28,932 253
Sep-21 6,838 6,856 6,702 6,790 6,812 6,798 -14 3,477 4,390
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322