About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton closed higher for the week and trends are up on the weekly charts. USDA released its production and supply and demand estimates on Friday. Production was estimated at 17.045 million bales and ending stocks were estimated at 7.2 million bales. Both estimates are about unchanged from last month. The market had expected reduced production and ending stocks levels. The weekly export sales report showed just moderate demand last week. There was no major Chinese demand. Demand should stay weak as long as the Coronavirus is around. Shopping is hard to do and many people are still unemployed. This is true in just about all countries. Hurricane Delta moved into the Southeast and brought some heavy rains. Ideas are that most of the Cotton crops in the region have open bolls now and that some significant damage might have been done due to wind and rain. The harvest has been active.
Overnight News: The Delta will get big rains are seen in the south on Friday and in all areas for the weekend, and Southeast will get scattered moderate to heavy showers this weekend. Temperatures should trend to above normal in the Delta and in the Southeast. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA average price is now 62.10 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 20,469 bales, from 19,789 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were post4ee for delivery against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 90 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 6860, 6870, and 7180 December. Support is at 6690, 6570, and 6520 December, with resistance of 6890, 7060 and 7090 December.

Cotton Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type – States and United States: 2019 and
Forecasted October 1, 2020
——————————————————————————————–
: Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production 1/
:————————————————————————–
Type and State : : : : 2020 : :
: 2019 : 2020 : 2019 :———————–: 2019 : 2020
: : : :September 1: October 1 : :
——————————————————————————————–
:— 1,000 acres — ———- pounds ———- 1,000 bales 2/
Upland :
United States …:11,389.0 8,812.0 810 899 899 19,227.0 16,500.0
American Pima :
United States …: 223.5 193.3 1,472 1,388 1,353 685.5 545.0
All :
United States …:11,612.5 9,005.3 823 910 909 19,912.5 17,045.0
——————————————————————————————–
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-pound net weight bale.

Cottonseed Production – United States: 2019 and Forecasted October 1, 2020
—————————————————————————–
: Production
State :———————————————————–
: 2019 : 2020 1/
—————————————————————————–
: 1,000 tons
United States …: 5,945.0 5,213.0
—————————————————————————–
1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2018/19 2019/20 Est. 2020/21 Proj. 2020/21 Proj.
Item Sep Oct
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 14.10 13.74 12.12 12.12
Harvested 9.99 11.61 9.01 9.01
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 882 823 910 909
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 4.20 4.85 7.25 7.25
Production 18.37 19.91 17.06 17.05
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Supply, Total 22.57 24.77 24.32 24.30
Domestic Use 2.98 2.15 2.50 2.50
Exports, Total 14.84 15.53 14.60 14.60
Use, Total 17.81 17.68 17.10 17.10
Unaccounted 2/ -0.09 -0.16 0.02 0.00
Ending Stocks 4.85 7.25 7.20 7.20
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 70.3 59.6 59.0 61.0
================================================================================
WASDE – 605 – 18 October 2020

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2020/21 Proj.
World
Sep 99.44 117.20 41.75 112.69 41.72 0.15 103.84
Oct 99.21 116.27 42.23 114.21 42.24 0.13 101.13
World Less China
Sep 62.54 89.95 32.75 76.19 41.60 0.15 67.32
Oct 62.31 89.02 32.73 76.71 42.11 0.13 65.11
United States
Sep 7.25 17.06 3/ 2.50 14.60 0.02 7.20
Oct 7.25 17.05 3/ 2.50 14.60 0.00 7.20
Total Foreign
Sep 92.19 100.14 41.75 110.19 27.12 0.13 96.64
Oct 91.96 99.23 42.23 111.71 27.64 0.13 93.93
Major Exporters 4/
Sep 40.59 57.88 1.71 31.33 23.35 0.02 45.48
Oct 40.42 57.40 1.71 31.83 23.87 0.02 43.81
Major Importers 8/
Sep 49.08 39.21 37.47 74.92 2.39 0.11 48.33
Oct 49.07 38.66 37.97 75.93 2.35 0.11 47.32
================================================================================
WASDE – 605 – 28 October 2020

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 06, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 270,094
: Positions :
: 54,909 8,399 60,711 48,649 177,209 90,063 14,157 254,332 260,475: 15,763 9,619
: Changes from: September 29, 2020 (Change in open interest: 7,043) :
: 3,117 -670 3,084 -1,674 3,846 1,197 603 5,724 6,863: 1,319 181
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.3 3.1 22.5 18.0 65.6 33.3 5.2 94.2 96.4: 5.8 3.6
: Total Traders: 288 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 111 44 79 52 67 45 22 245 186:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher once again last week. USDA estimated US Oranges production at 4.65 million tons, down 11% from last year. Florida production was estimated at 57 million boxes, with all varieties production down. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms with a record amount of tropical storms hitting the US. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is really dining out. Florida production prospects for the new crop were hurt by an extended flowering period, but the weather is good now with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Showers are falling in Brazil now.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 112.00, 111.00, and 109.00 November, with resistance at 119.00, 121.00, and 126.00 November.

The United States all orange forecast for the 2020-2021 season is
4.65 million tons, down 11 percent from the 2019-2020 final utilization. The
Florida all orange forecast, at 57.0 million boxes (2.57 million tons),
down 15 percent from last season’s final utilization. In Florida, early,
midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 23.0 million boxes
(1.04 million tons), down 22 percent from last season’s final utilization.
The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 34.0 million boxes
(1.53 million tons), is down 10 percent from last season’s final utilization.

The California all orange forecast is 50.5 million boxes (2.02 million tons),
down 5 percent from last season’s final utilization. The California Navel
orange forecast is 42.0 million boxes (1.68 million tons), down 5 percent
from last season’s final utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast
is 8.50 million boxes (340,000 tons), down 6 percent from last season’s final
utilization. The Texas all orange forecast, at 1.50 million boxes
(64,000 tons), is up 12 percent from last season’s final utilization.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 6, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,358 :
: Positions :
: 6,604 6,060 776 105 0 887 2,795 75 581 707 1,979 :
: Changes from: September 29, 2020 :
: 116 14 -17 44 0 -51 97 -62 93 -10 72 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 49.4 45.4 5.8 0.8 0.0 6.6 20.9 0.6 4.3 5.3 14.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 57 :
: 18 9 . . 0 4 13 . 12 6 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and in London on less selling by Brazil producers amid a stronger Real. The Real closed a little higher yesterday after trading lower early. London had been better supported due to stronger demand ideas and worries about the weather in Vietnam but the country is getting much rain now and the worries have abated and price trends are down. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The Brazil harvest is over and producers are selling due to the recent extreme weakness in the Real. Ideas are that production is very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. Central America is also offering right now and offers are increasing. The weather is a little dry in Peru but is mostly good in Colombia and Central America.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 1.098 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 107.94 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 106.00, 105.00, and 103.00 December, and resistance is at 112.00, 115.00 and 119.00 December. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1220, 1210, and 1180 November, and resistance is at 1280, 1320, and 1340 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 06, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 339,249
: Positions :
: 40,039 19,741 97,393 111,447 194,505 74,725 17,284 323,604 328,923: 15,644 10,325
: Changes from: September 29, 2020 (Change in open interest: 2,408) :
: -1,427 3,919 -2,127 5,219 -1,370 438 1,822 2,103 2,244: 305 163
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.8 5.8 28.7 32.9 57.3 22.0 5.1 95.4 97.0: 4.6 3.0
: Total Traders: 413 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 133 76 123 116 117 48 20 354 292:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/06/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
144,981 67,820 75,541 17,789 14,366 901
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 46.8% 52.1% 12.3% 9.9% 0.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
135 43 38 14 5 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
13,324 10,271 6,760 4,109 4,205 28,491
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
9.2% 7.1% 4.7% 2.8% 2.9% 19.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
20 20 13 11 11 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,787 4,446
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.0% 3.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher and made new highs for the move. World petroleum prices are higher. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. About 45% of the crush this year will go to Sugar, from 35% last year. It has been dry lately to affect Sugarcane production and producers are less aggressive sellers. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but the Coronavirus has made exports hard. The Indian government has not yet announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no one knows how much to charge yet. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China to hinder irrigation of the crops. The EU is having problems with its Sugar beets crop due to weather and disease. Demand appears to be about average.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1420 and 1460 March. Support is at 1400, 1380, and 1370 March, and resistance is at 1450, 1490, and 1530 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 387.00 and 396.00 December. Support is at 380.00, 377.00, and 368.00 December, and resistance is at 387.00, 389.00, and 395.00 December.

Sugar beet Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States: 2019 and
Forecasted October 1, 2020
[Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except California]
——————————————————————————————
: Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production
:—————————————————————————
State : : : : 2020 : :
: 2019 : 2020 : 2019 :————————-: 2019 : 2020
: : : :September 1 : October 1 : :
——————————————————————————————
: 1,000 acres ———— tons ———– — 1,000 tons —
California 1/ : 24.5 23.9 44.1 45.3 45.3 1,080 1,083
Colorado …..: 24.4 24.0 30.7 32.9 32.9 749 790
Idaho ……..: 165.0 172.0 39.0 40.2 40.2 6,435 6,914
Michigan …..: 145.0 154.0 28.6 29.4 29.2 4,147 4,497
Minnesota ….: 336.0 425.0 25.0 28.4 28.4 8,400 12,070
Montana ……: 36.5 43.3 31.6 33.3 33.5 1,153 1,451
Nebraska …..: 42.1 45.8 25.4 30.6 30.6 1,069 1,401
North Dakota .: 170.0 219.0 26.0 28.4 28.4 4,420 6,220
Oregon …….: 9.8 9.4 38.5 40.0 40.2 377 378
Washington …: 2.0 1.9 45.4 47.3 47.5 91 90
Wyoming ……: 24.0 30.2 28.3 30.5 30.5 679 921
United States : 979.3 1,148.5 29.2 31.2 31.2 28,600 35,815
——————————————————————————————
1/ Relates to year of planting for overwintered beets in southern California.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and
United States: 2019 and Forecasted October 1, 2020
——————————————————————————————
: Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/
:—————————————————————————
State : : : : 2020 : :
: 2019 : 2020 : 2019 :————————-: 2019 : 2020
: : : :September 1 : October 1 : :
——————————————————————————————
: 1,000 acres ———— tons ———– — 1,000 tons —
Florida ……: 410.7 413.0 43.0 43.6 43.9 17,644 18,131
Louisiana ….: 469.0 484.0 28.1 30.9 30.5 13,161 14,762
Texas ……..: 33.5 35.3 33.8 33.3 33.7 1,132 1,190
United States : 913.2 932.3 35.0 36.6 36.6 31,937 34,083
——————————————————————————————
1/ Net tons.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2018/19 2019/20 Est. 2020/21 Proj. 2020/21 Proj.
Item Sep Oct
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 2008 1783 1745 1702
Production 2/ 8999 8128 9292 9268
Beet Sugar 4939 4293 5165 5206
Cane Sugar 4060 3835 4127 4062
Florida 2005 2106 2135 2135
Hawaii 0 0 0 0
Louisiana 1907 1603 1850 1785
Texas 147 126 142 142
Imports 3070 4136 2913 3120
TRQ 3/ 1541 2071 1624 1832
Other Program 4/ 438 432 350 350
Other 5/ 1092 1633 938 938
Mexico 1000 1382 888 888
Total Supply 14077 14047 13949 14089
Exports 35 45 35 35
Deliveries 12231 12300 12255 12305
Food 12106 12200 12150 12200
Other 6/ 126 100 105 105
Miscellaneous 28 0 0 0
Total Use 12294 12345 12290 12340
Ending Stocks 1783 1702 1659 1749
Stocks to Use Ratio 14.5 13.8 13.5 14.2
================================================================================
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2019/20 Est.
Sep 1169 5278 105 4518 1222 812
Oct 1169 5278 110 4488 1218 852
2020/21 Proj.
Sep 812 6000 89 4468 1502 931
Oct 852 6000 89 4488 1518 935
================================================================================
WASDE – 605 – 17 October 2020

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 06, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,092,191
: Positions :
: 207,058 33,832 180,259 303,668 780,821 307,586 50,246 998,571 1,045,158: 93,620 47,033
: Changes from: September 29, 2020 (Change in open interest: -8,588) :
: 17,303 3,015 11,859 -59,105 -33,475 11,874 5,152 -18,070 -13,449: 9,482 4,862
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.0 3.1 16.5 27.8 71.5 28.2 4.6 91.4 95.7: 8.6 4.3
: Total Traders: 251 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 83 26 59 80 76 44 20 231 163:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/06/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
91,531 46,163 74,643 12,251 4,834 1,487
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 50.4% 81.5% 13.4% 5.3% 1.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
115 39 39 11 6 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
18,347 2,179 3,963 3,223 642 1,676
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
20.0% 2.4% 4.3% 3.5% 0.7% 1.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
24 8 13 7 5 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,421 2,107
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.8% 2.3%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower. Trends are turning sideways to down in both markets. The harvest for the next main crop is spreading to much of West Africa and very strong production is expected. Some concern is noted in Nigeria as rains keep falling and make it hard to sun dry the beans. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic. Ivory Coast is in the middle of the presidential campaign season and some violence s expected.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions today and showers this weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.624 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2400, 2360, and 2350 December. Support is at 2400, 2330, and 2300 December, with resistance at 2500, 2520, and 2540 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1680, 1670, and 1530 December. Support is at 1680, 1660, and 1620 December, with resistance at 1730, 1770, and 1810 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 06, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 258,783
: Positions :
: 42,804 27,997 62,883 80,138 138,881 60,733 20,156 246,557 249,917: 12,225 8,866
: Changes from: September 29, 2020 (Change in open interest: -8,367) :
: -7,441 -704 -737 -580 -11,028 -62 2,226 -8,820 -10,243: 454 1,876
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.5 10.8 24.3 31.0 53.7 23.5 7.8 95.3 96.6: 4.7 3.4
: Total Traders: 213 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 67 52 63 41 39 33 18 177 144:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/06/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
240,933 115,288 171,348 37,701 10,272 9,045
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 47.9% 71.1% 15.6% 4.3% 3.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
137 45 47 11 6 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
30,230 3,953 14,827 1,910 1,223 28,470
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
12.5% 1.6% 6.2% 0.8% 0.5% 11.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
27 11 11 16 8 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,462 1,795
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.4% 0.7%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322