About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK-The following are analysts’ estimates for 2020 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Friday.
U.S. 2020 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA Sept. USDA 2019
Corn Production 14,801 14,638-14,963 14,900 13,617
Corn Yield 177.6 175.4-179.2 178.5 167.4
Harvested Acres 83.3 82.7-83.5 83.5 81.3
Soybean Production 4,292 4,249-4,358 4,313 3,552
Soybean Yield 51.7 51.2-52.5 51.9 47.4
Harvested Acres 82.9 82.5-83.0 83.0 75.0
Corn Soybean
Harvested Harvested
Production Yield Acres Production Yield Acres
AgriSource 14,741 176.6 83.5 4,266 51.4 83.0
Allendale 14,870 178.9 83.1 4,321 52.2 82.8
DC Analysis 14,638 177.0 82.7 4,256 51.4 82.8
Doane 14,745 177.5 83.1 4,260 51.5 82.7
EDF Man 14,821 177.5 83.5 4,275 51.5 83.0
Futures Intl 14,823 177.7 83.4 4,321 52.1 82.9
Hueber Report 14,820 177.5 83.5 4,276 51.5 83.0
Linn Group 14,763 177.4 83.2 4,271 51.4 83.0
Sid Love Consulting 14,733 177.5 83.0 4,249 51.5 82.5
Midland Research 14,775 177.2 83.4 4,267 51.4 83.0
Midwest Market Solutions 14,857 178.0 83.5 4,326 52.1 83.0
Northstar 14,696 176.5 83.5 4,313 51.9 83.0
Prime-Ag 14,780 177.0 83.5 4,266 51.4 83.0
RJO Brien 14,682 175.4 4,250 51.2
StoneX Group 14,942 179.0 83.5 4,350 52.4 83.0
US Commodities 14,963 179.2 83.5 4,341 52.3 83.0
VantageRM 14,929 179.0 83.4 4,340 52.3 83.0
Western Milling 14,696 176.0 83.5 4,358 52.5 83.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 14,947 179.0 83.5 4,250 51.2 83.0

DJ U.S. October Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2020-21, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2020-21
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 2,130 1,882-2,333 2,503
Soybeans 360 285-436 460
Wheat 889 835-915 925
2020-21
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSource 2,012 335 890
Allendale 2,185 369 869
DC Analysis 1,950 350 890
Doane 2,050 345 875
EDF Man 1,991 308 879
Futures Intl 2,294 436 912
Hueber Report 2,115 352 913
Linn Group 2,100 341 908
Sid Love Consulting 2,078 400 900
Midland Research 2,220 337 898
Midwest Market Solutions 2,078 404 902
Northstar 1,990 285 835
Prime-Ag 2,125 361 900
RJO Brien 1,882 324 874
StoneX Group 2,286 369 885
US Commodities 2,333 425 915
VantageRM 2,303 428 890
Western Milling 2,211 368 869
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,267 295 885

DJ October World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2019-20 and 2020-21, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2019-20
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 304.8 302.5-311.2 309.2
Soybeans 94.7 94.0-95.6 96.0
Wheat 299.1 297.0-300.0 299.8
2020-21
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 299.7 295.5-305.0 306.8
Soybeans 90.9 88.1-93.1 93.6
Wheat 316.9 310.9-319.0 319.4
2019-20 2020-21
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Allendale 311.2 95.6 299.8 298.7 91.9 318.7
EDF Man 303.0 95.0 300.0 298.0 92.0 319.0
Futures Intl 299.0 89.0 315.0
Hueber Report 298.0 90.5 319.0
Linn Group 300.0 90.4 317.5
Midwest Market Solutions 305.0 93.1 318.9
Northstar 304.0 94.0 297.0 295.5 90.1 315.0
Prime-Ag 296.0 92.0 315.0
StoneX Group 302.5 94.0 300.0 304.6 88.1 310.9
US Commodities 303.0 94.6 299.0 300.6 92.2 318.0
Western Milling 305.0 95.0 299.0 302.0 92.0 318.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 299.5 90.1 317.7

DJ US Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Oct 8
For the week ended Oct 1, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1. The
marketing year for cotton and rice began Aug 1. The marketing
year for corn, soybeans and sorghum began Sep 1.
For soymeal and soyoil, “this year” is the 2020-2021 marketing
year, which began Oct 1, while “Last year” is 2019-20.
Source: USDA
wk’s net change total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 530.6 37.4 14520.8 13426.6 5030.1 55.9
hrw 95.8 0.0 5387.2 5030.4 1512.5 10.9
srw 36.3 37.4 1163.8 1693.7 314.3 40.0
hrs 214.6 0.0 4270.1 3628.3 1667.4 5.0
white 174.4 0.0 3158.0 2578.4 1315.8 0.0
durum 9.5 0.0 541.9 495.8 220.3 0.0
corn 1225.7 0.0 25847.8 9996.0 22170.0 206.0
soybeans 2590.7 0.0 40719.7 16251.5 33970.0 60.0
soymeal 581.3-a 0.0 3467.0 3463.1 3436.8 18.1
soyoil 53.9-b 0.0 176.8 195.9 176.7 0.0
upland cotton 178.4 15.0 8134.4 8929.2 5822.0 485.7
pima cotton 21.7 0.0 330.3 198.0 227.2 0.7
sorghum 132.4 0.0 2935.1 148.9 2542.4 136.0
barley 0.0 0.0 42.0 57.5 33.3 0.0
rice 258.1 0.0 1009.5 1334.1 789.3 0.0
-a: Includes new sales activity for Sep 25-Oct 1, which resulted
in a net increase of 271.7 thousand metric tons. Also includes
309.6 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2019-20.
-b: Includes new sales activity for Sep 25-Oct 1, which resulted
in a net increase of 4.6 thousand metric tons. Also includes
49.3 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2019-20.

DJ Food Price Index Hits Highest Level in Seven Months -UN FAO
By Will Horner
Global food prices continued to climb higher in September, supported by rebounding demand and concerns that dry weather could harm crop harvests, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said Thursday.
The UN FAO’s Food Prices Index, which tracks the price of a basket of the most common foodstuffs such as grains, vegetable oils, and meat, rose 2.1% in September to its highest level since February.
The overall rise in food prices was driven mainly by cereals and vegetable oils. Both foodstuffs experienced strong demand in September as well as concerns surrounding supply, which helped push prices higher.
Dairy prices also rose last month, but the gains were more muted, while sugar and meat prices fell slightly, the FAO said.
The FAO’s Cereal Price Index rose 5.1% to 104 points while the Vegetable Oil Index rose 5.9% to 104.6 points.
The Dairy Price Index rose 2.5% to 102.2 points, while the Meat Price Index fell 0.9% to 91.6 points and the Sugar Price Index fell 2.6% to 79 points.

DJ Brazil Forecasts Record Soybean, Corn Crops for 2020-2021 on Higher Productivity
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency Conab forecast record soybean and corn harvests for the 2020-2021 growing season as farmers boost productivity.
Brazilian farmers will produce 133.7 million metric tons of soybeans in the 2020-2021 season, for which planting recently began, the agency said Thursday in its first forecast for the season. Brazil produced 124.8 million tons of soybeans in 2019-2020. Productivity is forecast to increase by 4.4% from 2019-2020.
Brazil overtook the U.S. in 2019-2020 to become the world’s biggest soybean producer after Chinese buyers cut purchases of the oilseed from U.S. farmers amid President Donald Trump’s trade conflict with the Asian country. Brazil will outstrip the U.S. again in 2020-2021, according to the USDA.
Brazil is an agricultural exporting giant, with soybeans sometimes coming in first as the country’s biggest dollar earner. The South American country is also the world’s biggest producer and exporter of coffee and of sugar.
Brazil is a major corn producer as well, though most of its crop is consumed at home as animal feed or for other domestic uses. The country’s farmers take advantage of Brazil’s mild winters to plant two crops of corn, one in the summer and one in the winter. Conab counts the corn grown in the north of Brazil as a third crop.
The total corn crop will reach a record 105.2 million metric tons in the 2020-2021 growing season, according to Conab. In 2019-2020 Brazilian farmers grew 102.5 million tons of corn. Productivity will increase 2.8% over 2019-2020, according to Conab.

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter and Spring Wheat markets were lower after making new highs for the move as speculative profit taking hit the pit before the USDA reports tomorrow. The world weather situation is still important. Funds were on both sides of the market in all three markets. The overseas weather is presenting increasing problems for the next Winter Crop. Western Europe is likely to get some beneficial rains in the short term, but southern Russia could stay dry. Some showers are forecast for western parts of Ukraine this week, but eastern areas will be missed. Kazakhstan is also very dry. These areas are trying to plant the next Winter Wheat crop but the dry weather and the dry soils are keeping farmers out of the fields. Less production is likely in Argentina due to drought. About quarter of Argentine growing areas are affected. Western Australia has been dry. Conditions are improved in the US after some rains fell in the Great Plains but the western Great Plains remains mostly hot and dry. The Midwest has had good rains.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 619 December. Support is at 587, 576, and 561 December, with resistance at 611, 614, and 617 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 536, 525, and 515 December, with resistance at 553, 555, and 558 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 562 and 579 December. Support is at 539, 531, and 523 December, and resistance is at 553, 556, and 567 December.

RICE
General Comments Rice was near unchanged in trading before the USDA reports tomorrow. US export demand has been strong so far this year after a slow start to the marketing year and was extremely strong yesterday. The rebound in demand supported futures, but the crop reports forced some speculators to the sidelines. The harvest has been active in most states with good field yields reported. Southern Louisiana and Texas are done with the first crop harvest and are waiting for the second crop to mature. The harvest is wrapping up in the northern states. Quality is said to be very good, especially in Arkansas. Milling yields are higher and appearance is very good with minimal chalk or peck showing. The harvest should be almost complete this week in almost all states.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions but big rains this weekend from the hurricane. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1277 and 1297 November. Support is at 1257, 1242, and 1239 November, with resistance at 1275, 1280, and 1290 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower on fund long liquidation before the USDA reports. Demand is holding strong for exports, and the initial harvest yield reports have been mixed but generally positive. The demand has come primarily from China as the state companies bought for the reserve, but that buying appears to be almost complete now. China is back from holiday. The harvest has expanded into the Midwest with very good harvest conditions. The Midwest harvest has been slow as the Corn is slow to dry down. The yield reports have been mixed but appear to be good overall. The harvest will produce a good crop, but maybe not a great crop. Everyone is waiting for the next round of USDA reports to see if production will be enough to keep ending stocks at higher levels or if the stocks levels will be tight.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 398 December. Support is at 385, 382, and 377 December, and resistance is at 392, 394, and 398 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 310 and 330 December. Support is at 289, 286, and 281 December, and resistance is at 297, 300, and 303 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were all lower on speculative long liquidation before the USD reports today. Soybeans were higher early due to the very strong export sales reports. The weekly data was very strong and we sold a lot of Soybeans on the daily reporting system. China was back buying on their week off. The harvest has started to expand and reports indicated that the producer is selling Soybeans right off the combine or is delivering against previous contracts. Chinese buying for the reserve is almost finished, but Chinese crushers are buying even during the holiday. Ideas are that individual crushers are still with positions to buy. Soybeans were the leader to the upside due to the strong Chinese demand until this week. The trade generally expects China to shift its buying back to Brazil in the near future, but Brazil has been hot and dry and parts of Argentina have also been dry and some of the early planting has been delayed. That might keep the Chinese buying in the US for a little longer, but only for the crushers and not for the reserve. Buying volumes should be less from China and the weekly export sales report should start to reflect less demand in the near future. USDA releases its production and supply and demand estimates later today, with everyone waiting to see if the production will be strong enough to create enough ending stocks to keep the market out of a tight situation.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 1047, 1035, and 1025 November, and resistance is at 1069, 1072, and 1084 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 365.00 and 377.00 December. Support is at 353.00, 349.00, and 341.00 December, and resistance is at 365.00, 368.00, and 371.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3280, 3260, and 3210 December, with resistance at 3340, 3400, and 3470 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on production concerns as workers are hard to find during the Coronavirus pandemic. No one wants to work the fields. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. Getting workers to do the harvest has been hard, though, and the lack of labor has been a big problem. At least some of the plantation owners have asked for more migrant workers to cover the lack of workers that can be sourced locally. Demand reports from the private surveyors are stronger this month. China and India have been a major buyer as vegetable oils prices inside the countries have been very strong. Canola was lower on some speculative selling before the USDA reports today. Canola is relatively cheap compared to other oilseeds. Canola farmers are selling due to harvest pressure, but speculators were buying due to the outside markets. There is still a lot of uncertainty over the Canola yields. The Canadian Dollar traded a little higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 536.00, 538.00, and 554.00 November. Support is at 519.00, 513.00, and 508.00 November, with resistance at 529.00, 534.00, and 536.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3000 and 3180 December. Support is at 2820, 2770, and 2720 December, with resistance at 3000, 3030, and 3080 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions, but some rain in southern areas this weekend. Temperatures should average near to above normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October +71 Dec +165 Dec +60 Dec +78 Nov +15 Dec N/A
November +71 Dec +65 Dec +81 Nov
December +71 Dec +65 Dec +80 Jan
68

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 8
WINNIPEG, Oct. 8 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 491.40 -29.00 Nov 2020 unchanged
Basis: Thunder Bay 537.40 12.00 Nov 2020 dn 2.60
Basis: Vancouver 549.40 24.00 Nov 2020 dn 2.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 762.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 752.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 735.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 715.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 692.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 765.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 755.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 737.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 717.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 695.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 765.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 695.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 3,010.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 193.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1380)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 145,646 lots, or 6.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 4,434 4,504 4,418 4,504 4,370 4,454 84 219 1,091
Jan-21 4,465 4,536 4,401 4,524 4,370 4,479 109 135,932 105,167
Mar-21 4,649 4,649 4,449 4,531 4,398 4,514 116 1,466 2,747
May-21 4,566 4,615 4,507 4,604 4,474 4,575 101 7,202 14,453
Jul-21 4,559 4,648 4,541 4,648 4,508 4,625 117 745 2,580
Sep-21 4,668 4,668 4,515 4,628 4,499 4,590 91 82 241
Corn
Turnover: 962,161 lots, or 24.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 2,455 2,511 2,455 2,498 2,417 2,491 74 13,435 44,788
Jan-21 2,499 2,550 2,495 2,537 2,451 2,525 74 709,524 1,398,935
Mar-21 2,525 2,561 2,516 2,549 2,466 2,540 74 16,205 24,176
May-21 2,548 2,587 2,541 2,576 2,492 2,565 73 143,955 531,283
Jul-21 2,531 2,597 2,531 2,587 2,508 2,581 73 68,163 89,221
Sep-21 2,541 2,595 2,541 2,584 2,515 2,580 65 10,879 39,630
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,506,498 lots, or 47.75 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 3,240 3,259 3,186 3,240 3,052 3,234 182 15,787 41,495
Dec-20 3,251 3,275 3,150 3,261 3,068 3,259 191 6,328 1,714
Jan-21 3,220 3,278 3,202 3,262 3,077 3,252 175 998,801 1,353,700
Mar-21 3,100 3,119 3,051 3,106 2,939 3,099 160 22,973 23,674
May-21 2,980 3,014 2,962 3,008 2,876 2,993 117 373,514 886,659
Jul-21 2,980 2,980 2,931 2,949 2,846 2,952 106 23,966 19,276
Aug-21 3,000 3,005 2,967 2,983 2,891 2,988 97 4,361 8,594
Sep-21 2,994 3,006 2,950 2,981 2,888 2,987 99 60,768 86,970
Palm Oil
Turnover: 617,994 lots, or 37.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-20 – – – 6,308 6,308 6,308 0 0 68
Nov-20 6,046 6,398 6,046 6,398 6,036 6,302 266 1,029 905
Dec-20 5,950 6,266 5,950 6,264 5,950 6,206 256 1,478 1,617
Jan-21 5,950 6,104 5,924 6,082 5,764 6,022 258 543,562 347,389
Feb-21 5,846 6,062 5,846 6,040 5,708 5,998 290 35,850 9,484
Mar-21 5,772 6,018 5,772 6,008 5,658 5,960 302 10,499 3,317
Apr-21 5,828 5,980 5,828 5,980 5,650 5,872 222 46 176
May-21 5,780 5,898 5,736 5,880 5,608 5,838 230 24,561 72,784
Jun-21 5,840 5,840 5,840 5,840 5,700 5,840 140 1 10
Jul-21 5,788 5,788 5,788 5,788 5,624 5,788 164 1 5
Aug-21 5,798 5,798 5,798 5,798 5,658 5,798 140 1 2
Sep-21 5,650 5,770 5,650 5,756 5,580 5,744 164 966 1,466
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 553,759 lots, or 38.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 6,950 7,170 6,950 7,130 6,836 7,060 224 653 2,922
Dec-20 7,098 7,158 7,034 7,138 6,798 7,088 290 774 339
Jan-21 6,900 7,072 6,890 7,036 6,776 7,010 234 450,376 518,625
Mar-21 6,856 7,056 6,856 7,022 6,756 7,008 252 8,361 6,204
May-21 6,786 6,876 6,718 6,844 6,614 6,822 208 58,609 226,673
Jul-21 6,684 6,800 6,680 6,766 6,522 6,762 240 34,413 6,149
Aug-21 6,650 6,768 6,650 6,734 6,488 6,722 234 60 259
Sep-21 6,600 6,756 6,600 6,740 6,488 6,698 210 513 2,850
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322