Marc Nemenoff gives his readers an insight into the decision making process of a professional trader and analyst with 35+ years of market experience. He covers the markets with which he has had the best success throughout his career with. Contact Mr. Nemenoff at (312) 264-4310
Financials: As of this writing (6:15am) Bonds are up 16 ticks at 174’15 but down 2’05 for the week, 10 year notes up 4.5 ticks over night at 138’27 but down from 139’22 a ago and 5 year notes up 2 at 125’23 down from 126’00 a week ago. Yields are as follows:
2yr. Notes 0.15%, 5 yr. 0.33, 10 yr. 0.77 and the 30 yr. bond 1.57%. The yield curve widened while rates experienced a bump up across all treasuries from 2 basis points on the 2 year to 16 basis points on the 30 year bonds. The reasons: a weak dollar, strong equities market and the possibility of the passage of a stimulus package anywhere from 1.5-2.2 trillion dollars of additional debt. I now see some opportunity to trade these markets from the long side on sharp breaks as the Fed keeps rates near zero.
Grains: December Corn is 4’0 higher at 392’6 up 13 cents for the week, November Beans up 11cents over night at 1062’4 up from 1017’4 a week ago and December Wheat up 5’5 over night and up 48 cents for the week. Demand has been good and harvesting has been slowed by wet weather particularly in southern Iowa. I continue to hold a bullish bias.
Cattle: December Live Cattle closed 115 higher on Wednesday at 113.10 and November Feeders up 35 at 137.87. I must admit I made a strategic error covering short Feeder positions and going short December Live Cattle as LC gained 160 for the week as Feeders lost 375 points for the week. For the moment I will hold short positions watching the 113.80 resistance level as a signal to cover if broken substantially. Demand has been moderate as the boxed beef market has creeped higher and the choice / select spread narrowed.
Silver: December Silver is currently 23 cents higher at 24.13 up from 24.07 a week ago. This market is still too volatile for me to trade Support is now at 22.80 and resistance 24.50 those that are nimble short term traders.
S&P’s: December S&P’s are up 21.00 at 3428.00 up from 3314.00 a week ago. The prospect of the passage of a stimulus package, a weak Dollar and a bump to the upside on rates which may or may not be inflationary all came into play keeping the trend up. I still have a negative bias but will switch from futures to buying out of the money puts and/or pout spreads because of the defined and limited risk.
Currencies: As of this writing the December Euro is down 7 at 1.1776 up about 30 for the week, the Yen unchanged at 0.9437 down 70 for the week, the Pound down 16 at 1.2898 down45 for the week and the Dollar Index unchanged at 93 .68 down 10 points from a week ago. I still have a negative bias to the Dollar and remain short the Dollar Index. I remain cautiously bullish the Yen and bearish the pound on rallies.
MarcQuestions? Ask Marc Nemenoff today at 312-264-4310