Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments Cotton closed lower for the week on increasing harvest selling. The weekly export sales report showed just moderate demand last week. There was no major Chinese demand unlike the previous week. Demand should stay weak as long as the Coronavirus is around. Shopping is hard to do and many people are still unemployed. This is true in just about all countries. Harvest conditions are good right now amid moderate temperatures and dry weather.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions, and Southeast will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be below normal in the Delta and above normal in the Southeast. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. The USDA average price is now 59.68 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 14,518 bales, from 14,518 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were post4ee for delivery against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 20 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6470, 6420, and 6340 December, with resistance of 6620, 6660 and 6680 December.
General Comments FCOJ was higher despite the good growing conditions seen in Florida so far this year. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms with a record amount of tropical storms hitting the US. There are no tropical storms showing right now in the Atlantic for the first time in a while. The lack of damaging weather usually means lower prices for futures. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home, but the supplies at grocery stores are good. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is really dining out. Florida production prospects for the new crop were hurt by an extended flowering period, but the weather is good now with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Import demand to the US should be minimal as US prices remain below those of Europe. Export demand has gone to Brazil due to price and currency relationships. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Some showers are in the region now to help in Sao Paulo.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered to isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 104.00 November. Support is at 106.00, 100.00, and 97.00 November, with resistance at 113.00, 117.00, and 119.00 November.
General Comments: Futures were mixed, with New York slightly higher and London lower. Trends are down in both markets. The market knows it has new Coffee available from Brazil at cheap prices and is going after it. Central America has also stepped up offers as has northern South America. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. Vietnam was dry during flowering time and is now getting rains. Production ideas are lower, but conditions have stabilized and so has the production outlook. The Brazil harvest is over. Ideas are that production is very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.099 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 108.09 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions this week with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 108.00, 107.00, and 105.00 December, and resistance is at 111.00, 115.00 and 119.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1230 November. Support is at 1280, 1260, and 1240 November, and resistance is at 1340, 1370, and 1380 November.
DJ Uganda’s August Coffee Exports Rose 6% On Year
By Nicholas Bariyo
KAMPALA Uganda-Uganda’s coffee exports jumped 6% in August compared with the corresponding month last season, boosted by favorable weather and maturing plantations in Africa’s top robusta coffee grower, the Uganda Coffee Development Authority said Wednesday.
A total of 519,683 60-kilogram bags were exported in August, up from 488,864 bags in the same month last year.
The rise was the eleventh in a row since the start of the 2019-20 season in October last year, bringing cumulative exports to 4.6 million bags, worth $468 million. This represents a 19% jump in volume and a 17% rise in value on year.
“Despite the increasing incidence of COVID-19 incidence globally, there was an increase in Uganda’s exports attributed to increased production on account of fruition of the newly planted coffee and favorable weather, ” UCDA stated.
Uganda, which grows mainly the bitter tasting robusta coffee variety used in blends and instant drinks, exports nearly all of its bean-form coffee output to U.S. and European Union markets.
The country, which ships more coffee beans out of Africa than any other nation, has been implementing a coffee replanting campaign over the past decade to boost output and exports. Over the past two years, coffee production has increased to 7 million bags from 5.4 million bags according to government data.
General Comments: New York and London were higher but the fundamentals are still negative. World petroleum prices are weaker. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. It has been dry lately to affect Sugarcane production. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China to hinder irrigation of the crops. Demand appears to be about average.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1290, 1280, and 1260 March, and resistance is at 1360, 1380, and 1410 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 381.00 December. Support is at 366.00, 363.00, and 360.00 December, and resistance is at 379.00, 382.00, and 384.00 December.
General Comments: New York closed mixed and London closed lower, but both markers held to their recent trading range. The harvest for the next main crop just started in southeast Nigeria and will spread to the rest of West Africa in the coming weeks. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.648 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2480, 2430, and 2360 December. Support is at 2540, 2530, and 2500 December, with resistance at 2650, 2660, and 2690 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1790, 1680, and 1670 December. Support is at 1810, 1790, and 1760 December, with resistance at 1860, 1880, and 1910 December.