About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 30
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct. 01, 2020 54 Aug 28, 2020

DJ Survey: Sep. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for September 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Wednesday.
U.S. Stockpiles on Sept. 1, 2020 (million bushels)
Average Range USDA June 2020 USDA Sept. 2019
Corn 2,243 2,120-2,355 5,224 2,221
Soybeans 575 559-608 1,386 909
Wheat 2,163 925-2,380 1,044 2,346
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Allendale 2,243 564 2,206
DC Analysis 2,256 578 2,221
Doane 2,344 585 2,215
EDFMan Capital 2,275 595 2,300
Futures Intl 2,275 571 2,234
Grain Cycles 2,180 565 2,195
Linn Group 2,120 585 2,150
Sid Love Consulting 2,143 608 2,246
Midland Research 2,205 570 2,226
Midwest Market Solutions 2,355 565 2,215
Northstar 2,180 560 2,380
RJ O’Brien 2,345 559 2,197
RMC 2,150 565 925
StoneX Group 2,143 580 2,272
US Commodities 2,278 575
Vantage RM 2,268 585 2,240
Western Milling 2,303 584 2,273
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,308 563 2,272

DJ September U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2020 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Wednesday.
2020 Wheat Production
USDA USDA
Average Range August 2019
All Wheat 1,835 1,817-1,850 1,838 1,962
Winter Wheat 1,195 1,185-1,204 1,198 1,304
Hard Red Winter 692 684-700 695 833
Soft Red Winter 276 272-280 277 239
White Winter 227 224-230 226 232
Other Spring 578 568-590 577 600
Durum 62 60-64 62 58
All Winter Other
Wheat Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White Spring Durum
Allendale 1,835 1,187 684 272 230 584 64
DC Analysis 1,834 1,198 695 277 226 572 63
Doane 1,838 1,198 695 277 226 577 62
EDFMan Capital 1,825 1,195 695 275 225 570 60
Futures Intl 1,844 1,200 690 280 230 580 64
Grain Cycles 1,825 1,196 695 275 226 568 61
Sid Love Consulting 1,848 1,204 700 277 227 582 62
Midland Research 1,842 1,194 693 277 224 583 64
Midwest Market Solutions 1,817 1,185 685 272 226 570 62
Northstar 1,848 1,196 695 275 226 590 62
RJ O’Brien 1,823 1,188 688 273 227 572 62
RMC 1,835 1,198 695 274 226 577 62
StoneX Group 1,830 1,195 688 279 228 574 61
Vantage RM 1,838 1,198 695 277 226 577 62
Western Milling 1,850 1,198 695 277 226 588 63
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,827 1,187 688 275 229 577 62

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets closed lower with HRW and HRS the weakest markets. SRW closed just slightly lower. The trade is watching the weather and growing conditions around the world as well as the world Wheat price. World demand for US Wheat depends mostly on lower prices for US Wheat to compete with Russia, Europe, and other sellers and a weaker US Dollar. The overseas weather is mixed. Western Europe is likely to get some rains in the short term, but southern Russia could stay dry. Some showers are forecast for Ukraine this week. The country has also been dry. These areas are trying to plant the next Winter Wheat crop but the dry weather and the dry soils are keeping farmers out of the fields. Argentina got some very beneficial rains over the weekend. Australia has seen some cold temperatures in recent days and some southern growing areas could have seen a frost or a freeze. Conditions are improved in the US after some rains fell in the Great Plains.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 544, 551, and 538 December, with resistance at 554, 560, and 568 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 475, 470, and 467 December, with resistance at 484, 490, and 500 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 505 December. Support is at 523, 519, and 515 December, and resistance is at 529, 533, and 536 December.

RICE
General Comments Rice was slightly higher in range trading. It was another quiet session. There was talk in the market that Iraq had tendered, but there was no result announced. The weekly export sales report was positive for the second week in a row. Export sales were down but still well above the four week average. Brazil was a buyer of 7,000 tons of Rough Rice and much of Central America was noted buying as well. Total Brazil purchases are now 37,000 tons. The harvest has been active in most states with good field yields reported. Quality is said to be very good, especially in Arkansas. Milling yields are higher and appearance is very good with minimal chalk or peck showing.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1237, 1232, and 1222 November, with resistance at 1260, 1267, and 1290 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower and Oats were higher. Corn held an important chart point once again, but closed on a weaker note due to good harvest conditions in the Midwest. It posted a reversal on Monday but there was very limited follow through buying noted yesterday. Demand is holding strong for exports, but it is harvest time and yield reports have been mixed but generally strong. The demand has come primarily from China as the state companies bought for the reserve, but that buying appears to be completed now. Mexico was the strongest importer of US Corn last month. USDA has found less damage to crops in Iowa and northern Illinois due to the drought and derecho winds that hit both areas a month ago. That allowed for the higher yield, production, and ending stocks estimates. The harvest has expanded into the Midwest with very good harvest conditions. The yield reports appear to be good overall. The harvest will produce a good crop, but maybe not a great crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 357 and 346 December. Support is at 361, 354, and 348 December, and resistance is at 367, 370, and 373 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 263 December. Support is at 274, 270, and 260 December, and resistance is at 280, 284, and 289 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower while Soybean Meal was higher. Funds and other speculators were the best sellers in Soybeans and Soybean Meal. Soybeans were the leader to the upside due to the strong Chinese demand until last week. Now it appears that China is away from the market. The trade generally expects China to shift its buying back to Brazil in the near future, but central and northern Brazil has been dry and some of the early planting has been delayed. The lack of rain might keep the Chinese buying in the US for a little longer, but only for the crushers and not for the reserve. Buying volumes should be less from China and the weekly export sales report should start to reflect less demand this week;
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 215,000 tone of US Soybeans
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 977 and 943 November. Support is at 985, 982, and 967 November, and resistance is at 997, 1008, and 1012 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 316.00 and 301.00 October. Support is at 327.00, 319.00, and 313.00 October, and resistance is at 338.00, 340.00, and 348.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3050 October. Support is at 3250, 3200, and 3180 October, with resistance at 3330, 3360, and 3370 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower last week on ideas of increasing production. It was unchanged to firm today. It is seasonally a time for trees to produce more due to more regular rains. Getting workers to do the harvest has been hard, though, and the lack of labor has been a big problem. At least some of the plantation owners have asked for more migrant workers to cover the lack of workers that can be sourced locally. Demand reports from the private surveyors are stronger this month. China has been a major buyer as vegetable oils prices inside the country have been very strong. Most importers seem to have enough stocks on hand due to the Coronavirus pandemic. Canola was lower on follow through selling. Canola farmers and speculators are selling due to harvest pressure. There is still a lot of uncertainty over the Canola yields. The Canadian Dollar was slightly lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 514.00 and 476.00 November. Support is at 505.00, 502.00, and 501.00 November, with resistance at 521.00, 524.00, and 528.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2730, 2700, and 2670 December, with resistance at 2830, 2870, and 2920 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Occasional scattered showers, mostly near the weekend. Temperatures should average near to below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September +69 Dec +160 Dec +45 Sep +85 Nov +15 Dec N/A
October +67 Dec +60 Dec +70 Nov
November +68 Dec +65 Dec +77 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 28
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for Sept. 28, 2020.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 482.20 -36.10 Nov 2020 up 7.30
Track Thunder Bay 529.20 15.00 Nov 2020 dn 4.00
Track Vancouver 540.30 26.00 Nov 2020 dn 4.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 730.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 705.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 670.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 652.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 732.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 707.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 672.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 655.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 730.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 680.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,880.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 190.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1535)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322