About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton closed a little lower on the stronger US Dollar. US Cotton demand depends largely on exports so the higher US Dollar was negative for US Cotton futures. Demand has improved over the last couple of weeks and export demand was very strong last week. Demand should stay weak as long as the Coronavirus is around. Shopping is hard to do and many people are still unemployed. This is true in just about all countries. Hurricane Sally moved into the Southeast and brought some heavy rains. Ideas are that most of the Cotton crops in the region escaped any major damage that the storm could have brought. The supply losses are in the market now. The harvest is increasingly active and the tropical season is active. There will be more chances to inflict more damage on the crops to help try to rally prices.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and storms and Southeast will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have scattered showers, with big rains in the east from the hurricane. Temperatures will average below normal. The USDA average price is now 60.05 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 7,466 bales, from 6,987 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6470, 6340, and 6320 December, with resistance of 6620, 6680 and 6720 December.

Crop Progress
Date 20-Sep 13-Sep 2019 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 57 47 61 55
Cotton Harvested 11 6 10 10
Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 9 18 28 35 10
Cotton Last Week 7 20 28 36 9
Cotton Last Year 3 16 42 32 7

FCOJ
General Comments FCOJ was lower once again on the higher US Dollar and the good growing conditions seen in the state so far this year. No hurricanes have hit Florida yet. The systems have all gone south into the Gulf of Mexico or north into the Carolinas. It seems hard to believe that Florida has been spared as this year has been very active for tropical storms with a record amount of tropical storms hitting the US. The lack of damaging weather usually means lower prices for futures but prices are already relatively cheap. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is really dining out. Florida production prospects for the new crop were hurt by an extended flowering period, but the weather is good now with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Import demand to the US should be minimal as US prices remain below those of Europe. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Some showers are in the region now to help in Sao Paulo.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions this week and isolated showers this weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against September contracts for delivery and that deliveries for the month are now 273 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 115.00, 114.00, and 112.00 November, with resistance at 119.00, 121.00, and 126.00 November.

DJ Florida Orange Juice Ending Stocks Shrink — Market Talk
1016 ET – Florida orange juice 2019/20 ending stocks likely decreased 21%, the Florida Department of Citrus says. While production fell 6.5% during the marketing year, orange juice saw a surge in demand amid the coronavirus pandemic. Still, monthly retail orange juice sales have come down from their high of 44.05 million gallons in mid-March to mid-April, totaling 32.42 million gallons at the end of August. (mary.dewet@dowjones.com)

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Sep 21
Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
9/12/2020 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
9/12/2020 9/14/2019 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 272.36 310.52 -12.3%
Retail/Institutional 6.26 5.92 5.7%
Total 278.62 316.44 -12.0%
Pack
Bulk 0.82 0.19 335.0%
Retail/Institutional 0.82 2.63 -68.8%
Total Pack 1.65 2.82 -41.7%
Reprocessed -1.65 -2.82 -41.7%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.01 1.03 -98.7%
Imports – Foreign 0.08 8.14 -99.0%
Domestic Receipts 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.03 0.00 NA
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 1.18 -100.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.08 0.01 568.9%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 271.75 318.24 -14.6%
Retail/Institutional 7.08 8.55 -17.2%
Total 278.83 326.80 -14.7%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 4.29 3.39 26.5%
Exports 0.17 0.23 -27.1%
Total (Bulk) 4.46 3.62 23.1%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 0.77 2.43 -68.2%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 0.77 2.43 -68.2%
Total Movement 5.23 6.05 -13.5%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 267.29 314.62 -15.0%
Retail/Institutional 6.31 6.13 3.0%
Ending Inventory 273.60 320.75 -14.7%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
12-Sep-20 14-Sep-19 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 311.95 237.21 31.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.82 5.92 -1.6%
Total 317.77 243.13 30.7%
Pack
Bulk 141.13 145.09 -2.7%
Retail/Institutional 52.85 62.21 -15.0%
Total Pack 193.97 207.30 -6.4%
Reprocessed -111.96 -120.01 -6.7%
Pack from Fruit 82.01 87.29 -6.0%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -1.96 -0.25 674.7%
Imports – Foreign 133.59 277.33 -51.8%
Domestic Receipts 12.77 10.37 23.2%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.80 0.07 1107.1%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 18.40 4.87 278.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ 2.59 3.34 -22.5%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 507.30 558.01 -9.1%
Retail/Institutional 58.67 68.12 -13.9%
Total 565.97 626.14 -9.6%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 231.75 224.55 3.2%
Domestic 14.22 18.85 -24.5%
Exports 245.97 243.39 1.1%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 52.36 62.00 -15.5%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 52.36 62.00 -15.5%
Total Movement 298.33 305.39 -2.3%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 267.29 314.62 -15.0%
Retail/Institutional 6.31 6.13 3.0%
Ending Inventory 273.60 320.75 -14.7%

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday in New York and in London. Both markets are showing oversold conditions on the daily charts, but both do not show any reasons to rally at this time. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. Vietnam was dry during flowering time and is now getting rains. Production ideas are lower. The Brazil harvest is over. Ideas are that production is very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. Brazil is reportedly offering Coffee at very cheap prices to attract sales.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.108 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 109.92 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions this week and isolated showers this weekend with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 113.00 December. Support is at 113.00, 112.00, and 109.00 December, and resistance is at 120.00, 124.00 and 128.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1340 and 1330 November. Support is at 1340, 1310, and 1280 November, and resistance is at 1400, 1420, and 1440 November.

DJ Brazil Estimates 2020 Total Coffee Crop of 61.63M Bags, Near 2018 Record
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SÃO PAULO–Brazilian farmers came close to producing a record crop of coffee in the 2020 growing season as the increase in the arabica crop outweighed a decline in production of robusta, according to national crop agency Conab.
Brazil grew 47.38 million 132-pound bags of arabica coffee, the most popular variety, more than the range of 43.2 million bags to 45.98 million bags of arabica coffee that the agency forecast in January. Farmers grew 14.25 million bags of the stronger and less sought-after robusta variety, within the range of 13.95 million bags to 16.04 million bags the agency forecast at the start of the year.
That would bring total output to just over 61.63 million bags of coffee, within the range of 57.15 million to 62.02 million bags forecast in January and close to the 61.66 million-bag record set in 2018. In 2019 Brazil produced 49.31 million bags, according to Conab. The harvest is close to finished, according to Conab.
Brazil is the world’s biggest producer and exporter of arabica coffee and the second-biggest producer of robusta, after Vietnam. The South American country’s arabica production has a two-year cycle in which even-numbered years produce a bigger crop, then a smaller crop the following year as the plants rest.
Brazil grew about 37% of total world coffee in 2018. The producing area planted with both arabica and robusta increased 4% this year, according to Conab.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower on speculative and fund related selling. Most commodity markets were lower in part on the higher US Dollar. World petroleum futures were lower and helped create ideas of more Sugar for the world market to consume. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices, but that might be changing. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult due to Coronavirus lockdowns. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China to hinder irrigation of the crops.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry conditions this week and isolated showers this weekend. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1300, 1280, and 1260 March, and resistance is at 1340, 1360, and 1380 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 381.00 December. Support is at 365.00, 360.00, and 353.00 December, and resistance is at 372.00, 382.00, and 389.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed higher. It was a day with movement partially dictated by currency relationships with the US Dollar sharply higher against the basket of major currencies. Trends turned up for the London market. New York held to sideways trends. The current crop features strong production but there are worries about the next crop. The harvest for the next main crop just started in southeast Nigeria and will spread to the rest of West Africa in the coming weeks. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Europe is still trying to open its markets again but the Coronavirus is still around and consumers are reluctant to buy. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.675 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2580, 2520, and 2500 December, with resistance at 2650, 2710, and 2730 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1940 December. Support is at 1830, 1790, and 1760 December, with resistance at 1940, 1970, and 2000 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322