Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments Cotton closed lower on ideas of weak demand and ideas of little damage from Hurricane Sally. Hurricane Sally has curved into the Southeast and become a tropical storm. The storm is expected to drop a lot of rain on the open bolls in Alabama but little damage in Georgia. The rain could damage the fiber in the open bolls. Demand has improved over the last couple of weeks but remains at depressed levels. The export sales report was very strong yesterday but has been an exception to the overall weaker demand. Demand should stay week as long as the Coronavirus is a feature of life around the world. Shopping is hard to do and many people are still unemployed. This is especially true for the US but it is true to some degree in just about all countries. The Harvest is still a ways down the road and the tropical season is active. There will be more chances to inflict more damage on the crops to help try to rally prices.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and Southeast will get big rains from Hurricane Sally. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have scattered showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The USDA average price is now 60.24 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 5,912 bales, from 5,912 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6550, 6430, and 6330 December, with resistance of 6690, 6720 and 6840 December.
DJ On-Call Cotton – Sep 17
As of Sep 11. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Oct 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 20 37,224 37,896 -672 20,335 19,768 567
Mar 21 26,143 25,811 332 10,869 10,618 251
May 21 10,333 9,805 528 1,274 1,261 13
Jul 21 14,676 14,650 26 2,896 2,934 -38
Oct 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 21 7,581 7,605 -24 10,272 10,155 117
Mar 22 1,714 1,449 265 212 212 0
May 22 381 381 0 26 26 0
Jul 22 428 428 0 409 409 0
Dec 22 0 0 0 1,263 1,263 0
Jul 23 0 0 0 220 220 0
Dec 23 0 0 0 227 227 0
Mar 24 0 0 0 441 441 0
Total 98,480 98,025 455 48,444 47,534 910
Open Open Change
Oct 20 113 128 -15
Dec 20 122,176 122,240 -64
Mar 21 54,408 51,121 3,287
May 21 12,250 12,910 -660
Jul 21 10,243 10,035 208
Oct 21 3 2 1
Dec 21 16,644 16,530 114
Mar 22 696 717 -21
May 22 194 187 7
Jul 22 285 274 11
Dec 22 353 327 26
Jul 23 1 1 0
Dec 23 0 0 0
Mar 24 0 0 0
Total 217,366 214,472 2,894
General Comments FCOJ was a little higher again in consolidation trading. No hurricanes have hit Florida yet. The systems have all gone south into the Gulf of Mexico or north into the Carolinas. That usually means lower prices for futures but prices are already relatively cheap. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is really dining out. Florida production prospects for the new crop were hurt by an extended flowering period, but the weather is good now with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Import demand to the US should be minimal as US prices remain below those of Europe. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Some showers are in the region now to help in Sao Paulo.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions this week and isolated showers this weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against September contracts for delivery and that deliveries for the month are now 273 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 114.00, 113.00, and 110.00 November, with resistance at 118.00, 121.00, and 126.00 November.
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and a little lower in London. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home. Consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. Vietnam was dry during flowering time but is getting some showers now. Production ideas are lower. The Brazil harvest is over. Ideas are that production is very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. The strong production ideas are coming despite hot and dry weather seen in the country at flowering time. Showers were improved after the dry time.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 1.116 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 113.91 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions this week and isolated showers this weekend with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 44 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 604 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 113.00 December. Support is at 115.00, 113.00, and 112.00 December, and resistance is at 124.00, 128.00 and 130.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1340 and 1330 November. Support is at 1360, 1340, and 1310 November, and resistance is at 1400, 1420, and 1440 November.
General Comments: New York and London were higher on speculative and fund related buying. Higher petroleum futures were bullish for Sugar due to ethanol demand ideas. Chart trends are up in New York and in London. The world still thinks it has plenty of Sugar to deal with. Ethanol demand is down in Brazil due to weaker world and domestic petroleum prices so mills there are producing more Sugar in the mix. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult due to Coronavirus lockdowns. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China to hinder irrigation of the crops.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry conditions this week and isolated showers this weekend. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1340 March. Support is at 1300, 1280, and 1260 March, and resistance is at 1330, 1380, and 1410 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 381.00 December. Support is at 363.00, 360.00, and 353.00 December, and resistance is at 370.00, 372.00, and 382.00 December.
General Comments: New York closed a little lower and London closed a little higher. The next main crop harvest has started in southeast Nigeria. The charts show that London and New York have mixed trends. The current crop features strong production. European demand is reported to be improving. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Europe is still trying to open its markets again but the Coronavirus is still around and consumers are reluctant to buy. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops. Halloween is coming but activities are expected to be down so demand should be less.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.679 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery today against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 965 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2580, 2520, and 2500 December, with resistance at 2650, 2710, and 2730 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1940 December. Support is at 1830, 1790, and 1760 December, with resistance at 1920, 1940, and 1970 December.