About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Chicago Winter Wheat markets and Minneapolis Spring Wheat closed higher. Wheat continues to follow world market price action although Spring Wheat has been weaker with the harvest. Prices in Russia in particular have been stronger in the past couple of weeks as the weather delays planting of the next crop there and in Europe. Much of Europe and southern Russia are dry. Western Europe is likely to get some rains soon but the eastern areas and southern Russia should stay dry. Larger world ending stocks estimates from USDA reflect larger production estimates in Australia and unchanged production estimates in Russia. Less production is likely in Europe and Argentina due to drought. About half of Argentine growing areas are affected as was much of France. The next crop is being planted now in northern parts of the world. Conditions are improved in the US after some rains fell in the Great Plains. The Midwest has had good rains although some areas in the southern Midwest have not gotten much rain recently.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with no objectives. Support is at 547, 543, and 533 December, with resistance at 557, 560, and 570 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 500 December. Support is at 486, 476, and 470 December, with resistance at 490, 496, and 504 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 550 December. Support is at 538, 534, and 532 December, and resistance is at 544, 545, and 551 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher on good export sales and little in the way of farm selling. The export sales report was strong and featured buying of 30,000 tons from Brazil. The demand was welcome because reports indicate that export and domestic demand has not been real strong to start out the new crop year. Exporters and domestic mills are thought to be holding back on purchases for as long as possible due to the current relatively high prices. Producers are concentrating on the harvest and not on selling. Field yields have been average to above average so far. Milling reports from Texas were variable, with some good lots and some poor lots. No milling reports have been heard yet from the other states.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1218, 1204, and 1192 November, with resistance at 1231, 1237, and 1260 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher in sympathy with the rallies in Soybeans and Wheat. Corn harvest has started in the south but there are no yield reports yet. The weekly export sales report was strong as expected, and some sales of Corn were announced on the daily system. It is not likely that the buyer was China. Chinese buying will need to be watched. Both China and USDA put Chinese imports at 7.0 million tons for the crop year but many in the trade feel this is too low. China has seen weather damage to a large potion of the crop areas this year. Damage came earlier in the year to southern growing areas and is happening now in northeast growing areas due to typhoons that have hit the region. The US Midwest weather is quiet this week and harvesting will be starting soon. The harvest weather should be good but there was damage earlier to the crops from drought and the Derecho winds in Iowa and northern Illinois.
Overnight News: China bought 210,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 378 and 387 December. Support is at 371, 364, and 363 December, and resistance is at 377, 380, and 383 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 267, 265, and 262 December, and resistance is at 274, 279, and 282 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher as strong Chinese demand continued in the US market. Soybean Oil closed slightly lower on spreading against Soybean Meal. Much of the export demand until now has been from China. The trade generally expects China to shift its buying back to Brazil in the near future, but China could continue to buy here a little longer than expected and buy more than expected. The Midwest weather is dry and warm and harvest should start soon. Funds were the big buyers in Chicago and are now near a record long position.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans and unknown destinations bought 100,000 tons of US Soybean Meal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1054 November. Support is at 1006, 985, and 982 November, and resistance is at 1032, 1044, and 1060 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 332.00 and 339.00 October. Support is at 323.00, 319.00, and 317.00 October, and resistance is at 333.00, 336.00, and 339.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3510 and 3650 October. Support is at 3450, 3390, and 3320 October, with resistance at 3520, 3550, and 3580 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher with the outside markets and on lower production ideas. Production ideas are turning seasonally higher as trees enter a peak production period over the next few months, but production is expected to be less than last year. Most importers seem to have enough stocks on hand and the Coronavirus pandemic is keeping overall demand on the lighter side. Canola was higher along with the price action in Chicago. Farmers are harvesting and not really selling, and end user demand is reported to be very good. Speculators are buying.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 531.00 and 536.00 November. Support is at 524.00, 518.00, and 512.00 November, with resistance at 533.00, 536.00, and 539.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2950 and 3140 November. Support is at 2870, 2820, and 2790 November, with resistance at 2940, 2970, and 3000 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September +60 Dec +154 Dec +40 Sep +78 Nov +15 Dec N/A
October +60 Dec +65 Dec +67 Nov
November +65 Dec +65 Dec +76 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 17
WINNIPEG, Sept. 17 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 494.10 -36.10 Nov 2020 up 9.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 543.90 12.00 Nov 2020 up 1.70
Basis: Vancouver 557.90 26.00 Nov 2020 up 1.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 795.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 782.50 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 762.50 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 742.50 +30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 797.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 785.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 765.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 745.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 795.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 720.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 3,110.00 +70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 206.00 +11.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.110)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 213,065 lots, or 9.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 4,547 4,611 4,546 4,571 4,565 4,583 18 96 2,315
Jan-21 4,578 4,642 4,565 4,603 4,582 4,606 24 197,490 154,718
Mar-21 4,571 4,656 4,565 4,619 4,587 4,615 28 2,033 2,939
May-21 4,622 4,707 4,609 4,682 4,629 4,660 31 10,708 11,441
Jul-21 4,632 4,738 4,619 4,713 4,634 4,696 62 2,638 2,248
Sep-21 4,644 4,746 4,638 4,712 4,632 4,703 71 100 104
Corn
Turnover: 1,612,191 lots, or 39.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 2,391 2,454 2,385 2,448 2,398 2,418 20 50,591 40,918
Jan-21 2,423 2,490 2,415 2,484 2,429 2,458 29 1,267,220 1,576,127
Mar-21 2,435 2,504 2,435 2,500 2,448 2,469 21 16,570 25,720
May-21 2,460 2,524 2,453 2,520 2,469 2,494 25 213,925 506,596
Jul-21 2,476 2,536 2,464 2,531 2,482 2,502 20 56,297 81,409
Sep-21 2,493 2,541 2,491 2,538 2,500 2,514 14 7,588 15,391
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,495,376 lots, or 77.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 3,050 3,151 3,043 3,135 3,068 3,110 42 58,019 59,177
Dec-20 3,067 3,156 3,061 3,145 3,084 3,120 36 1,202 1,227
Jan-21 3,070 3,170 3,063 3,153 3,090 3,133 43 1,887,816 1,549,826
Mar-21 2,953 3,041 2,948 3,021 2,973 3,003 30 17,388 19,883
May-21 2,905 2,985 2,902 2,963 2,922 2,954 32 467,165 907,352
Jul-21 2,893 2,973 2,888 2,959 2,918 2,948 30 35,309 20,568
Aug-21 2,935 3,011 2,929 2,995 2,951 2,986 35 13,606 8,455
Sep-21 2,930 2,999 2,928 2,980 2,951 2,976 25 14,871 39,222
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,409,828 lots, or 89.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-20 6,402 6,648 6,392 6,594 6,468 6,560 92 489 857
Nov-20 6,392 6,600 6,362 6,578 6,404 6,526 122 22,253 3,519
Dec-20 6,260 6,460 6,238 6,412 6,216 6,332 116 86,262 748
Jan-21 6,210 6,432 6,206 6,384 6,214 6,338 124 1,051,917 496,497
Feb-21 6,212 6,428 6,206 6,378 6,190 6,306 116 175,115 19,214
Mar-21 6,160 6,350 6,152 6,314 6,192 6,252 60 25,995 3,309
Apr-21 – – – 6,144 6,076 6,144 68 0 152
May-21 6,032 6,220 6,024 6,200 6,052 6,158 106 47,750 75,800
Jun-21 6,056 6,056 6,056 6,056 6,032 6,056 24 1 4
Jul-21 – – – 6,012 6,012 6,012 0 0 5
Aug-21 6,104 6,142 6,104 6,142 6,042 6,122 80 2 2
Sep-21 6,000 6,110 6,000 6,094 5,984 6,076 92 44 107
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,406,670 lots, or 10.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 7,186 7,392 7,168 7,366 7,158 7,324 166 10,689 5,397
Dec-20 7,190 7,366 7,172 7,364 7,102 7,270 168 137 213
Jan-21 7,152 7,382 7,150 7,330 7,140 7,286 146 1,128,697 688,756
Mar-21 7,158 7,370 7,156 7,316 7,130 7,282 152 8,561 7,175
May-21 6,962 7,188 6,962 7,140 6,962 7,110 148 100,567 215,871
Jul-21 6,920 7,120 6,914 7,082 6,882 7,014 132 87,332 6,530
Aug-21 6,888 7,056 6,886 7,040 6,846 6,970 124 70,520 109
Sep-21 6,870 7,044 6,868 7,026 6,846 6,980 134 167 492
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322