Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments Cotton closed a little lower on ideas of weak demand. Hurricane Sally has come onshore from the Gulf of Mexico near the Louisiana-Mississippi border area and will curve into the Southeast. The storm is expected to drop a lot of rain on the open bolls in Alabama and Georgia and perhaps bring some wind to these areas as well. The rain could damage the fiber in the open bolls. Demand has improved over the last couple of weeks but remains at depressed levels. It was a supply side rally. Demand should stay week as long as the Coronavirus is a feature of life around the world. Shopping is hard to do and many people are still unemployed. This is especially true for the US but it is true to some degree in just about all countries. The Harvest is still a ways down the road and the tropical season is active. There will be more chances to inflict more damage on the crops to help try to rally prices.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and Southeast will get big rains from Hurricane Sally. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have scattered showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The USDA average price is now 59.76 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 5,912 bales, from 5,912 bales yesterday. USDA said that net weekly Upland Cotton export sales were 519,600 bales this year and 0 bales next ear. Net Pima sales were 28,000 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 6820, 6860, and 6870 December. Support is at 6550, 6430, and 6330 December, with resistance of 6690, 6720 and 6840 December.
General Comments FCOJ was a little higher in consolidation trading. The daily and weekly charts show that trends are starting to turn down again. No hurricanes have hit Florida yet. The systems have all gone south into the Gulf of Mexico or north into the Carolinas. That usually means lower prices for futures but prices are already relatively cheap. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is really dining out. Florida production prospects for the new crop were hurt by an extended flowering period, but the weather is good now with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Import demand to the US should be minimal as US prices remain below those of Europe. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Some showers are in the region now to help in Sao Paulo.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions this week and isolated showers this weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against September contracts for delivery and that deliveries for the month are now 273 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 114.00, 113.00, and 110.00 November, with resistance at 118.00, 121.00, and 126.00 November.
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and a little higher in London. Some more buying from industry was noted in New York. London also found industry buying. London has been the leader on the recent rally and has held stronger on the corrections as demand for Robusta has improved with people staying at home. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home and the Coronavirus outbreak will keep things that way. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. Vietnam was dry during flowering time but is getting some showers now. Production ideas are lower. The Brazil harvest is over. Ideas are that production is very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. The strong production ideas are coming despite hot and dry weather seen in the country at flowering time. Showers were improved after the dry time.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are little changed today at 1.116 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 115.00 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions this week and isolated showers this weekend with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 2 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 560 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 113.00 December. Support is at 118.00, 115.00, and 113.00 December, and resistance is at 124.00, 128.00 and 130.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1340 and 1330 November. Support is at 1360, 1340, and 1310 November, and resistance is at 1420, 1440, and 1470 November.
General Comments: New York and London were higher on speculative and fund related buying. Brazil producers were selling on a scale up basis. Chart trends are up in New York and sideways in London. The world still thinks it has plenty of Sugar to deal with. Ethanol demand is down in Brazil due to weaker world and domestic petroleum prices so mills there are producing more Sugar in the mix. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult due to Coronavirus lock downs. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China to hinder irrigation of the crops.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry conditions this week and isolated showers this weekend. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 13400 and 1340 March. Support is at 1280, 1260, and 1240 March, and resistance is at 1300, 1310, and 1320 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 353.00, 347.00, and 345.00 December, and resistance is at 360.00, 364.00, and 369.00 December.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower and gave back about all of the gains from Tuesday. The charts show that London is still in an up trend while trends in New York have turned mixed. The current crop features strong production but there are worries about the next crop and also worries about the availability of the current crop. European demand is reported to be improving. Nigerian traders told the wire services that the Nigerian rainfall has started and that crop conditions are much improved. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Europe is still trying to open its markets again but the Coronavirus is still around and consumers are reluctant to buy. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops. Halloween is coming but activities are expected to be down so demand should be less.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are near unchanged today at 3.699 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery today against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 965 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2580, 2520, and 2500 December, with resistance at 2650, 2710, and 2730 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1940 December. Support is at 1830, 1790, and 1760 December, with resistance at 1920, 1940, and 1970 December.