About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Sep 17
For the week ended Sep 10, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 335.7 0.3 13132.7 12292.9 5459.9 17.2
hrw 59.4 0.0 4916.1 4648.6 1705.7 10.9
srw 32.3 0.3 1118.0 1550.7 478.3 1.3
hrs 42.4 0.0 3847.8 3405.6 1794.9 5.0
white 175.3 0.0 2736.1 2179.4 1244.2 0.0
durum 26.3 0.0 514.7 508.8 236.8 0.0
corn 1609.2 0.0 20456.1 8654.9 19308.4 206.0
soybeans 2457.1 0.0 32343.0 11180.9 30084.0 60.0
soymeal -105.4 197.3 12080.1 12178.1 752.1 2067.9
soyoil 0.1 0.0 1277.0 918.7 101.1 102.0
upland cotton 519.6 0.0 7629.5 8407.2 5959.6 399.5
pima cotton 28.0 0.0 270.6 174.2 207.0 0.7
sorghum 121.5 0.0 2569.6 69.5 2464.2 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 39.2 57.4 30.8 0.0
rice 78.7 0.0 573.3 1153.2 407.8 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets and Minneapolis Spring Wheat closed higher. SRW rallied less than the other market. Wheat continues to follow world market price action although Spring Wheat has been weaker with the harvest. Prices in Russia in particular have been stronger in the past couple of weeks as the weather delays planting of the net crop there and in Europe. Larger world ending stocks estimates from USDA reflect larger production estimates in Australia and unchanged production estimates in Russia. Less production is likely in Europe and Argentina due to drought. About half of Argentine growing areas are affected as was much of France. The next crop is being planted now in northern parts of the world. Conditions are improved in the US after some rains fell in the Great Plains. The Midwest has had good rains although some areas in the southern Midwest have not gotten much rain recently. It is also too dry for planting in parts of Ukraine and southern Russia. There is still plenty of time for rains to start planting in the latter two areas as well as in US Winter Wheat areas.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 530, 509, and 504 December. Support is at 533, 527, and 516 December, with resistance at 543, 547, and 550 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 463, 457, and 450 December, with resistance at 473, 480, and 485 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 505 December. Support is at 523, 519, and 515 December, and resistance is at 535, 539, and 544 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher in quiet trading. Hurricane has come onshore near the Mississippi-Louisiana state line and could bring excessive rainfall to crops in Mississippi. Most of the bigger rains should stay to the east. The rest of the growing areas should be spared any real dangerous weather. Reports indicate that export and domestic demand has not been real strong to start out the new crop year. Exporters and domestic mills are thought to be holding back on purchases for as long as possible due to the current relatively high prices.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1191 November. Support is at 1204, 1197, and 1188 November, with resistance at 1220, 1231, and 1237 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher in sympathy with the rallies in Soybeans and Wheat. Corn harvest has started in the south but there are no yield reports yet. The market acts as if all of the bullish news is in the market already, but there are still chances for prices to move higher. Chinese buying will need to be watched. Both China and USDA put Chinese imports at 7.0 million tons for the crop year but many in the trade feel this is too low. China has seen weather damage to a large potion of the crop areas this year. Damage came earlier in the year to southern growing areas and is happening now in northeast growing areas due to typhoons that have hit the region. The US Midwest weather is quiet this week and harvesting will be starting soon. The harvest weather should be good but there was damage earlier to the crops from drought and the Derecho winds in Iowa and northern Illinois.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 120,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 374 December. Support is at 371, 364, and 363 December, and resistance is at 374, 377, and 380 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 267, 265, and 262 December, and resistance is at 274, 279, and 282 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher as strong Chinese demand returned to the US market. Much of the demand until now has been from China. The trade generally expects China to shift its buying back to Brazil in the near future, but China could continue to buy here a little longer than expected and buy more than expected. World ending stocks estimates were neutral when compared to trade expectations but were lower than last month. That is due mostly to the lower US production estimates. The Midwest weather is dry and warm and harvest should start soon.
Overnight News: China bought 264,000 tons of US Soyberans and unknown destinations bought 360.500 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1030 and 1054 November. Support is at 1006, 985, and 982 November, and resistance is at 1020, 1032, and 1044 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 322.00 October. Support is at 319.00, 317.00, and 308.00 October, and resistance is at 321.00, 324.00, and 326.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3510 and 3650 October. Support is at 3450, 3390, and 3320 October, with resistance at 3520, 3550, and 3580 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was closed for a holiday. Production ideas are turning seasonally higher as trees enter a peak production period over the next few months. Most importers seem to have enough stocks on hand and the Coronavirus pandemic is keeping overall demand on the lighter side. Canola was lower along with the price action in Chicago. Farmers are harvesting and selling, but end user demand is reported to be very good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 531.00 and 536.00 November. Support is at 524.00, 518.00, and 512.00 November, with resistance at 533.00, 536.00, and 539.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2950 and 3140 November. Support is at 2870, 2820, and 2790 November, with resistance at 2940, 2970, and 3000 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September +60 Dec +154 Dec +40 Sep +72 Nov +15 Dec N/A
October +60 Dec +65 Dec +71 Nov
November +64 Dec +65 Dec +77 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 15
WINNIPEG, Sept. 15 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the
closing cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 487.20 -36.10 Nov 2020 up 5.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 532.90 12.00 Nov 2020 dn 2.40
Basis: Vancouver 546.90 26.00 Nov 2020 dn 2.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 775.00 – Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 752.50 – Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 732.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 712.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 777.50 – Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 755.00 – Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 735.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 715.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 775.00 – Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 695.00 – Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 3,040.00 – Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 195.00 – Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1370)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 229,489 lots, or 10.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 4,513 4,583 4,511 4,535 4,528 4,565 37 517 2,321
Jan-21 4,545 4,618 4,540 4,578 4,554 4,582 28 217,718 152,040
Mar-21 4,550 4,619 4,546 4,576 4,562 4,587 25 1,975 2,923
May-21 4,599 4,659 4,591 4,621 4,599 4,629 30 8,566 9,495
Jul-21 4,603 4,711 4,603 4,628 4,614 4,634 20 698 1,243
Sep-21 4,606 4,664 4,601 4,652 4,618 4,632 14 15 21
Corn
Turnover: 1,222,707 lots, or 29.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 2,379 2,415 2,377 2,394 2,379 2,398 19 51,996 37,584
Jan-21 2,414 2,447 2,410 2,426 2,406 2,429 23 934,707 1,443,252
Mar-21 2,433 2,465 2,433 2,445 2,429 2,448 19 14,178 26,364
May-21 2,450 2,485 2,450 2,465 2,447 2,469 22 158,792 484,579
Jul-21 2,468 2,496 2,467 2,476 2,461 2,482 21 55,287 80,843
Sep-21 2,487 2,515 2,487 2,494 2,484 2,500 16 7,747 12,840
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,299,756 lots, or 70.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 3,053 3,100 3,047 3,055 3,056 3,068 12 59,870 61,141
Dec-20 3,063 3,111 3,056 3,067 3,060 3,084 24 1,444 1,448
Jan-21 3,074 3,125 3,066 3,073 3,074 3,090 16 1,761,128 1,507,681
Mar-21 2,960 3,003 2,952 2,957 2,969 2,973 4 19,746 20,632
May-21 2,908 2,950 2,900 2,909 2,907 2,922 15 388,021 884,130
Jul-21 2,911 2,940 2,890 2,890 2,911 2,918 7 41,857 19,524
Aug-21 2,951 2,976 2,931 2,932 2,954 2,951 -3 12,266 8,079
Sep-21 2,948 2,973 2,928 2,933 2,947 2,951 4 15,424 36,310
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,254,946 lots, or 77.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-20 6,346 6,560 6,346 6,426 6,334 6,468 134 247 1,111
Nov-20 6,272 6,486 6,250 6,410 6,256 6,404 148 19,125 3,963
Dec-20 6,136 6,320 6,120 6,260 6,130 6,216 86 62,630 770
Jan-21 6,122 6,292 6,092 6,232 6,112 6,214 102 994,482 507,052
Feb-21 6,104 6,300 6,080 6,236 6,084 6,190 106 125,379 20,513
Mar-21 6,070 6,250 6,050 6,186 6,052 6,192 140 15,404 3,229
Apr-21 – – – 6,076 5,904 6,076 172 224 152
May-21 5,968 6,118 5,938 6,048 5,948 6,052 104 37,283 68,863
Jun-21 – – – 6,032 5,952 6,032 80 0 5
Jul-21 5,996 6,078 5,960 6,034 5,954 6,012 58 117 5
Aug-21 6,048 6,048 6,036 6,036 5,902 6,042 140 2 2
Sep-21 5,912 6,050 5,898 5,954 5,888 5,984 96 53 88
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,290,868 lots, or 91.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 7,058 7,228 7,036 7,202 6,992 7,158 166 16,684 5,612
Dec-20 7,048 7,230 7,034 7,208 7,008 7,102 94 93 253
Jan-21 7,046 7,218 7,022 7,180 6,990 7,140 150 1,005,345 675,964
Mar-21 7,056 7,212 7,024 7,172 6,976 7,130 154 11,657 7,153
May-21 6,846 7,048 6,838 6,994 6,804 6,962 158 104,715 206,745
Jul-21 6,798 6,986 6,788 6,940 6,754 6,882 128 83,995 6,266
Aug-21 6,768 6,938 6,768 6,920 6,726 6,846 120 68,096 110
Sep-21 6,786 6,920 6,716 6,880 6,714 6,846 132 283 440
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322