About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 16
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE September Sep. 16, 2020 1 Jul 28, 2020
CORN September Sep. 16, 2020 1 Sep 14, 2020

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets and Minneapolis Spring Wheat closed lower. SRW made new lows for the move as did Minneapolis. Wheat continues to follow world market price action although Spring Wheat has been weaker with the harvest.. Prices in Russia in particular have been stronger in the past couple of weeks. Larger world ending stocks estimates from USDA reflect larger production estimates in Australia and unchanged production estimates in Russia. Less production is likely in Europe and Argentina due to drought. About half of Argentine growing areas are affected as was much of France. The next crop is being planted now in northern parts of the world. Conditions are improved in the US after some rains fell in the Great Plains. The Midwest has had good rains although some areas in the southern Midwest have not gotten much rain recently. It is also too dry for planting in parts of Ukraine and southern Russia. There is still plenty of time for rains to start planting in the latter two areas as well as in US Winter Wheat areas.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 530, 509, and 504 December. Support is at 527, 516, and 510 December, with resistance at 543, 547, and 550 December. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 457, 439, and 430 December. Support is at 463, 457, and 450 December, with resistance at 473, 480, and 485 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 505 December. Support is at 523, 519, and 515 December, and resistance is at 531, 535, and 549 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher as Hurricane Sally began to bear down on the Gulf Coast. It is expected to come onshore near the Mississippi-Louisiana state line and could bring excessive rainfall to crops in Mississippi. The rest of the growing areas should be spared any real dangerous weather. Reports indicate that export and domestic demand has not been real strong to start out the new crop year. Exporters and domestic mills are thought to be holding back on purchases for as long as possible due to the current relatively high prices.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1191 November. Support is at 1204, 1197, and 1188 November, with resistance at 1220, 1231, and 1237 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower due to a lack of new export demand. Corn harvest has started in the south but there are no yield reports yet. The market acts as if all of the bullish news is in the market already, but there are still chances for prices to move higher over time. Chinese buying will need to be watched. Both China and USDA put Chinese imports at 7.0 million tons for the crop year but many in the trade feel this is too low. China has seen weather damage to a large potion of the crop areas this year. Damage came earlier in the year to southern growing areas and is happening now in northeast growing areas due to typhoons tht have hit the region. The US Midwest weather is quiet this week and harvesting will be starting soon. The harvest weather should be good but there was damage earlier to the crops from drought and the Derecho winds in Iowa and northern Illinois.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 374 December. Support is at 364, 363, and 359 December, and resistance is at 371, 374, and 377 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 265, 262, and 260 December, and resistance is at 274, 279, and 282 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower. Demand was a little less than expected. Much of the demand until now has been from China. The trade generally expects China to shift its buying back to Brazil in the near future, but USDA suggests that China could continue to buy here a little longer than expected. World ending stocks estimates were neutral when compared to trade expectations but were lower than last month. That is due mostly to the lower US production estimates. The Midwest weather is dry and warm and harvest should start soon.
Overnight News: China bought 327,000 tons of US Soybeans
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 982, 967, and 959 November, and resistance is at 1009, 1012, and 1024 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 322.00 October. Support is at 308.00, 306.00, and 302.00 October, and resistance is at 321.00, 324.00, and 326.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3480, 3510, and 3650 October. Support is at 3390, 3320, and 3260 October, with resistance at 3460, 3490, and 3520 October.

Alerts History
• 15-Sep-2020 11:00:18 AM – U.S. AUGUST SOYBEAN CRUSH 165.055 MILLION BUSHELS – NOPA
• 15-Sep-2020 11:00:18 AM – U.S. AUGUST SOYOIL STOCKS 1.519 BILLION LBS – NOPA
• 15-Sep-2020 11:00:18 AM – U.S. AUGUST SOYMEAL EXPORTS 754,634 TONS – NOPA

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was closed for a holiday. Production ideas are turning seasonally higher as trees enter a peak production period over the next few months. Most importers seem to have enough stocks on hand and the Coronavirus pandemic is keeping overall demand on the lighter side. Canola was lower along with the price action in Chicago. Farmers are harvesting and selling, but end user demand is reported to be very good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 524.00, 531.00, and 536.00 November. Support is at 515.00, 512.00, and 505.00 November, with resistance at 524.00, 527.00, and 530.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2950 and 3140 November. Support is at 2870, 2820, and 2790 November, with resistance at 2940, 2970, and 3000 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September +60 Dec +159 Dec +40 Sep +70 Nov +15 Dec N/A
October +60 Dec +65 Dec +70 Nov
November +63 Dec +65 Dec +77 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 15
WINNIPEG, Sept. 15 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the
closing cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 487.20 -36.10 Nov 2020 up 5.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 532.90 12.00 Nov 2020 dn 2.40
Basis: Vancouver 546.90 26.00 Nov 2020 dn 2.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 188,469 lots, or 8.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 4,564 4,565 4,496 4,506 4,523 4,528 5 149 1,966
Jan-21 4,590 4,603 4,523 4,539 4,556 4,554 -2 180,682 143,590
Mar-21 4,601 4,612 4,524 4,535 4,572 4,562 -10 1,354 2,878
May-21 4,640 4,650 4,566 4,588 4,602 4,599 -3 5,134 10,774
Jul-21 4,646 4,655 4,553 4,599 4,618 4,614 -4 1,140 1,241
Sep-21 4,659 4,659 4,608 4,612 4,638 4,618 -20 10 16
Corn
Turnover: 1,002,821 lots, or 24.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 2,381 2,390 2,364 2,379 2,381 2,379 -2 79,671 35,128
Jan-21 2,404 2,418 2,392 2,410 2,409 2,406 -3 721,322 1,393,145
Mar-21 2,423 2,439 2,415 2,431 2,434 2,429 -5 16,128 26,397
May-21 2,441 2,458 2,432 2,451 2,449 2,447 -2 124,319 472,513
Jul-21 2,455 2,471 2,447 2,467 2,460 2,461 1 54,128 79,514
Sep-21 2,481 2,495 2,475 2,486 2,481 2,484 3 7,253 8,504
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,314,098 lots, or 70.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 3,098 3,101 3,019 3,038 3,094 3,056 -38 70,273 61,249
Dec-20 3,103 3,109 3,033 3,050 3,108 3,060 -48 1,289 1,567
Jan-21 3,112 3,123 3,040 3,064 3,118 3,074 -44 1,790,702 1,510,569
Mar-21 2,990 3,002 2,933 2,953 2,996 2,969 -27 18,094 20,797
May-21 2,934 2,944 2,883 2,899 2,937 2,907 -30 361,167 880,493
Jul-21 2,935 2,948 2,884 2,900 2,938 2,911 -27 48,317 18,550
Aug-21 2,978 2,987 2,927 2,939 2,981 2,954 -27 8,887 7,703
Sep-21 2,971 2,980 2,925 2,939 2,976 2,947 -29 15,369 31,537
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,288,160 lots, or 78.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-20 6,270 6,368 6,248 6,342 6,264 6,334 70 531 1,105
Nov-20 6,262 6,306 6,212 6,272 6,228 6,256 28 14,412 4,243
Dec-20 6,136 6,184 6,102 6,152 6,116 6,130 14 55,226 767
Jan-21 6,110 6,164 6,074 6,122 6,090 6,112 22 1,000,560 482,150
Feb-21 6,074 6,136 6,048 6,108 6,062 6,084 22 157,063 20,658
Mar-21 6,048 6,098 6,018 6,076 6,026 6,052 26 34,704 3,417
Apr-21 – – – 5,904 5,904 5,904 0 0 152
May-21 5,942 5,986 5,912 5,958 5,944 5,948 4 25,585 67,471
Jun-21 5,952 5,954 5,952 5,954 5,824 5,952 128 2 5
Jul-21 5,960 5,960 5,946 5,946 5,854 5,954 100 3 3
Aug-21 – – – 5,902 5,870 5,902 32 0 0
Sep-21 5,874 5,900 5,856 5,878 5,868 5,888 20 74 71
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 826,216 lots, or 57.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 6,994 7,056 6,948 7,048 6,992 6,992 0 16,497 5,317
Dec-20 7,008 7,042 6,970 7,042 7,004 7,008 4 70 273
Jan-21 6,990 7,044 6,940 7,040 6,990 6,990 0 705,716 655,632
Mar-21 6,976 7,064 6,928 7,064 6,962 6,976 14 11,462 6,972
May-21 6,812 6,858 6,756 6,852 6,812 6,804 -8 60,476 196,062
Jul-21 6,762 6,806 6,710 6,806 6,762 6,754 -8 31,210 6,289
Aug-21 6,708 6,720 6,698 6,716 6,686 6,726 40 582 61
Sep-21 6,716 6,756 6,686 6,744 6,736 6,714 -22 203 334
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322