About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville

Tuesday, September 15, 2020

Price Futures Group, CBOT
Chicago, IL
(312) 264-4322
jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV
San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA
San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024
jslsa@comcast.net

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 15
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep. 16, 2020 57 Sep 14, 2020
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep. 16, 2020 33 Sep 14, 2020
ROUGH RICE September Sep. 16, 2020 3 Jul 28, 2020
CORN September Sep. 16, 2020 276 Sep 14, 2020
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep. 16, 2020 6 Sep 11, 2020
SOYBEAN September Sep. 16, 2020 11 Sep 09, 2020
WHEAT September Sep. 16, 2020 60 Sep 14, 2020

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Sep 14
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 10, 2020
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 09/10/2020 09/03/2020 09/12/2019 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 1,996 49 5,727 3,036
CORN 878,907 887,889 423,129 1,150,827 895,139
FLAXSEED 0 72 0 389 48
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 48 0 948 299
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 72,465 144 45,857 72,561 79,399
SOYBEANS 1,283,936 1,396,077 668,496 1,849,421 1,241,963
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 637,226 699,310 517,966 8,099,176 7,530,003
Total 2,872,534 2,985,536 1,655,497 11,179,049 9,749,887
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress
Date 6-Sep 30-Aug 2019 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 47 37 51 45
Cotton Harvested 6 8 8
Corn Dented 89 79 64 82
Corn Mature 41 25 16 32
Corn Harvested 5 3 5
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 37 20 13 31
Sorghum Coloring eighty five 74 75 81
Sorghum Mature thirty nine 29 32 39
Sorghum Harvested twenty three 21 23 26
Peanuts Harvested Jan-00 4 4
Rice Harvested 34 26 41 47
Spring Wheat Harvested 92 82 75 92
Barley Harvested 95 85 86 94
Winter Wheat Planted 10 5 6 8

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 7 20 28 36 9
Cotton Last Week 11 16 28 36 9
Cotton Last Year 3 14 42 34 7

Corn This Week 5 10 25 46 14
Corn Last Week 5 9 25 46 15
Corn Last Year 4 10 31 44 11

Soybeans This Week 3 8 26 50 13
Soybeans Last Week 3 7 25 52 13
Soybeans Last Year 4 10 32 45 9

Sorghum This Week 6 11 31 40 12
Sorghum Last Week 6 11 34 37 12
Sorghum Last Year 1 6 28 51 14

Rice This Week 1 4 23 56 16
Rice Last Week 1 3 18 61 17
Rice Last Year 1 5 25 47 22

Peanuts This Week 2 6 21 57 14
Peanuts Last Week 1 4 22 60 13
Peanuts Last Year 2 7 30 55 6

Pastures and Ranges This Week 17 25 34 22 2
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 19 27 32 20 2
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 6 16 31 39 8

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were a little higher and Minneapolis Spring Wheat closed a little lower. Winter Wheat futures rallied with firm world prices. Prices in Russia in particular have been stronger in the past couple of weeks. Larger world ending stocks estimates from USDA reflect larger production estimates in Australia and unchanged production estimates in Russia. Less production is likely in Europe and Argentina due to drought. About half of Argentine growing areas are affected as was much of France. The next crop is being planted now in northern parts of the world. Conditions are improved in the US after some rains fell in the Great Plains. The Midwest has had god rains although some areas in the southern Midwest have not gotten much rain recently. It is also too dry for planting in parts of Ukraine and southern Russia. There is still plenty of time for rains to start planting in the latter two areas as well as in US Winter Wheat areas.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 530, 509, and 504 December. Support is at 539, 527, and 516 December, with resistance at 550, 557, and 560 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 467, 465, and 463 December, with resistance at 480, 485, and 490 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 505 December. Support is at 525, 519, and 515 December, and resistance is at 535, 539, and 544 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower as USDA even as Hurricane Sally began to bear down on the Gulf Coast. It is expected to come onshore near the Mississippi-Louisiana state line and could bring excessive rainfall to crops in Mississippi. The rest of the growing areas should be spared any real dangerous weather, Reports indicate that export and domestic demand has not been real strong to start out the new crop year. Exporters and domestic mills are thought to be holding back on purchases for as long as possible due to the current relatively high prices.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1191 November. Support is at 1204, 1197, and 1188 November, with resistance at 1220, 1231, and 1237 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was slightly higher and followed the other markets. Corn harvest has started in the south but there are no yield reports yet. The market acts as if all of the bullish news is in the market already, but there are still chances for prices to move higher over time. Chinese buying will need to be watched. Both China and USDA put Chinese imports at 7.0 million tons for the crop year but many in the trade feel this is too low. China has seen weather damage to a large potion of the crop areas this year. Damage came earlier in the year to southern growing areas and is happening now in northeast growing areas due to typhoons tht have hit the region. The US Midwest weather is quiet this week and harvesting will be starting soon. The harvest weather should be good but there was damage earlier to the crops from drought and the Derecho winds in Iowa and northern Illinois.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 120,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 374 December. Support is at 364, 363, and 359 December, and resistance is at 371, 374, and 377 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 269, 265, and 262 December, and resistance is at 274, 279, and 282 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher while Soybean Meal closed lower. Soybean Oil was supported by strength in world vegetable oils prices and news that the EPA will not give any more wavers to refiners of petroleum products so that they would need to incorporate more ethanol and bio fuels in the blends. Soybean Meal prices were hurt on ideas that more Soybean Oil production would create more Soybean Meal as well. Soybeans were supported by reports and ideas of strong demand. Much of the demand until now has been from China. The trade generally expects China to shift its buying back to Brazil in the near future, but USDA suggests that China could continue to buy here a little longer than expected. World ending stocks estimates were neutral when compared to trade expectations but were lower than last month. That is due mostly to the lower US production estimates.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans and unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 982, 967, and 959 November, and resistance is at 1009, 1012, and 1024 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 322.00 October. Support is at 315.00, 308.00, and 306.00 October, and resistance is at 321.00, 324.00, and 326.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3480, 3510, and 3650 October. Support is at 3390, 3320, and 3260 October, with resistance at 3460, 3490, and 3520 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on strength in outside markets and in a bigger than expected jump in the export pace. Production ideas are turning seasonally higher as trees enter a peak production period over the next few months. Most importers seem to have enough stocks on hand and the Coronavirus pandemic is keeping overall demand on the lighter side. Canola was higher. Canola closed higher on reports of freezing temperatures last week in the Canadian Prairies. The freeze extended into parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota as well. It is possible that a significant part of the Canola crop got hurt during the freeze event. Higher futures in Chicago also supported the market. Farmers there have withdrawn from the market and speculators are buying.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 745,565 tons, from 664,392 tons last month. AmSpec said that exports are now 780,305 tons, from 694,292 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 524.00, 531.00, and 536.00 November. Support is at 515.00, 512.00, and 505.00 November, with resistance at 524.00, 527.00, and 530.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2950 and 3140 November. Support is at 2820, 2790, and 2760 November, with resistance at 2920, 2940, and 2970 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September +49 Dec +159 Dec +65 Sep +80 Nov +15 Dec N/A
October +60 Dec +65 Dec +69 Nov
November +63 Dec +65 Dec +77 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 14
WINNIPEG, Sept. 14 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 481.30 -36.10 Nov 2020 up 7.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 535.30 12.00 Nov 2020 up 5.90
Basis: Vancouver 549.30 24.00 Nov 2020 up 5.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 760.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 737.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 717.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 702.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 762.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 740.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 720.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 705.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 755.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 675.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 2,970.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 193.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.130)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 355,483 lots, or 16.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 4,453 4,570 4,445 4,548 4,466 4,523 57 636 1,957
Jan-21 4,492 4,599 4,492 4,590 4,486 4,556 70 341,081 155,571
Mar-21 4,539 4,610 4,522 4,606 4,505 4,572 67 1,967 2,867
May-21 4,552 4,640 4,552 4,640 4,547 4,602 55 10,963 11,156
Jul-21 4,586 4,658 4,580 4,642 4,566 4,618 52 788 1,439
Sep-21 4,616 4,685 4,553 4,622 4,566 4,638 72 48 10
Corn
Turnover: 1,125,327 lots, or 27.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 2,396 2,403 2,364 2,374 2,386 2,381 -5 76,671 29,926
Jan-21 2,424 2,433 2,391 2,402 2,419 2,409 -10 854,179 1,380,209
Mar-21 2,443 2,457 2,415 2,424 2,441 2,434 -7 13,898 26,924
May-21 2,450 2,470 2,430 2,441 2,457 2,449 -8 124,120 462,822
Jul-21 2,465 2,476 2,443 2,454 2,462 2,460 -2 52,404 78,616
Sep-21 2,488 2,500 2,445 2,479 2,462 2,481 19 4,055 3,228
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,559,657 lots, or 47.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 3,101 3,115 3,067 3,093 3,086 3,094 8 61,817 61,126
Dec-20 3,104 3,124 3,078 3,103 3,104 3,108 4 1,505 1,587
Jan-21 3,114 3,135 3,092 3,116 3,111 3,118 7 1,131,486 1,581,386
Mar-21 2,992 3,010 2,971 2,995 2,995 2,996 1 18,563 21,085
May-21 2,928 2,950 2,916 2,935 2,931 2,937 6 283,334 849,479
Jul-21 2,937 2,954 2,914 2,942 2,936 2,938 2 29,791 17,260
Aug-21 2,983 2,994 2,961 2,981 2,986 2,981 -5 9,209 7,123
Sep-21 3,000 3,000 2,954 2,973 2,986 2,976 -10 23,952 19,813
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,024,597 lots, or 62.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-20 6,204 6,348 6,194 6,264 6,174 6,264 90 99 1,540
Nov-20 6,196 6,290 6,130 6,218 6,118 6,228 110 11,335 4,450
Dec-20 6,120 6,174 6,078 6,090 5,958 6,116 158 41,827 739
Jan-21 6,088 6,152 6,054 6,076 5,984 6,090 106 808,801 470,942
Feb-21 6,100 6,122 6,028 6,046 5,938 6,062 124 131,768 16,895
Mar-21 6,036 6,096 6,002 6,016 5,938 6,026 88 9,688 2,899
Apr-21 – – – 5,904 5,778 5,904 126 144 152
May-21 5,946 6,008 5,906 5,920 5,846 5,944 98 20,864 65,904
Jun-21 – – – 5,824 5,824 5,824 0 0 3
Jul-21 – – – 5,854 5,854 5,854 0 24 3
Aug-21 – – – 5,870 5,870 5,870 0 0 0
Sep-21 5,800 5,918 5,800 5,860 5,870 5,868 -2 47 42
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 705,104 lots, or 49.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-20 6,990 7,084 6,956 6,976 6,910 6,992 82 11,250 5,462
Dec-20 6,988 7,062 6,966 6,974 6,898 7,004 106 77 312
Jan-21 6,978 7,054 6,954 6,968 6,914 6,990 76 567,970 641,664
Mar-21 6,954 7,022 6,932 6,938 6,856 6,962 106 14,981 6,961
May-21 6,790 6,880 6,780 6,790 6,742 6,812 70 65,077 191,827
Jul-21 6,768 6,824 6,728 6,746 6,696 6,762 66 44,685 6,083
Aug-21 – – – 6,686 6,686 6,686 0 790 13
Sep-21 6,834 6,834 6,700 6,702 6,686 6,736 50 274 226
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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