About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments Cotton closed a little lower for the week and trends are still sideways on the weekly charts. Demand has improved over the last couple of weeks but remains at depressed levels. The export sales report showed better sales to China but not that much beyond that. Demand should stay week as long as the Coronavirus is a feature of life around the world. Shopping is hard to do and many people are still unemployed. This is especially true for the US but it is true to some degree in just about all countries. US ending stocks were estimated at 7.2 million bales but came on the back of the lower production as export and domestic demand was trimmed. USDA estimated US Cotton production at just 127.06 million bales on Friday. Production was in line with trade expectations and below the 18 million produced last year. The supply losses are in the market now. However, the Harvest is still a ways down the road and the tropical season is active. There will be more chances to inflict more damage on the crops to help try to rally prices.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and Southeast will get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have scattered showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The USDA average price is now 58.77 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 5,913 bales, from 5,913 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6340, 6230, and 6200 December, with resistance of 6550, 6600 and 6640 December.

Cotton Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type – States and United States: 2019
and Forecasted August 1, 2020
—————————————————————————————–
Type and State : Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production 1/
:———————————————————————–
: 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020
—————————————————————————————–
: —- 1,000 acres — —– pounds —- — 1,000 bales 2/ —
Upland :
United States …: 11,389.0 9,057.0 810 929 19,227.0 17,525.0
American Pima :
United States …: 223.5 189.9 1,472 1,402 685.5 554.5
All :
United States …: 11,612.5 9,246.9 823 938 19,912.5 18,079.5
—————————————————————————————–
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-pound net weight bales.

Cottonseed Production – United States: 2019 and Forecasted August 1, 2020
—————————————————————————–
: Production
State :———————————————————–
: 2019 : 2020 1/
—————————————————————————–
: 1,000 tons
United States …: 5,945.0 5,530.0
—————————————————————————–
1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2018/19 2019/20 Est. 2020/21 Proj. 2020/21 Proj.
Item Aug Sep
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 14.10 13.74 12.19 12.12
Harvested 9.99 11.61 9.25 9.0
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 882 823 938 910
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 4.20 4.85 7.20 7.25
Production 18.37 19.91 18.08 17.06
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Supply, Total 22.57 24.77 25.28 24.32
Domestic Use 2.98 2.15 2.70 2.50
Exports, Total 14.84 15.53 15.00 14.60
Use, Total 17.81 17.68 17.70 17.10
Unaccounted 2/ -0.09 -0.16 -0.02 0.02
Ending Stocks 4.85 7.25 7.60 7.20
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 70.3 59.5 59.0 59.0
================================================================================
WASDE – 604 – 18 September 2020

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2020/21 Proj.
World
Aug 100.56 117.53 41.58 113.05 41.59 0.11 104.91
Sep 99.44 117.20 41.75 112.69 41.72 0.15 103.84
World Less China
Aug 63.81 91.03 32.58 76.55 41.46 0.11 69.29
Sep 62.54 89.95 32.75 76.19 41.60 0.15 67.32
United States
Aug 7.20 18.08 3/ 2.70 15.00 -0.02 7.60
Sep 7.25 17.06 3/ 2.50 14.60 0.02 7.20
Total Foreign
Aug 93.36 99.45 41.57 110.35 26.59 0.13 97.31
Sep 92.19 100.14 41.75 110.19 27.12 0.13 96.64
Major Exporters 4/
Aug 41.87 57.44 1.71 31.43 22.81 0.02 46.77
Sep 40.59 57.88 1.71 31.33 23.35 0.02 45.48
Major Importers 8/
Aug 48.96 38.96 37.29 75.00 2.39 0.11 47.72
Sep 49.08 39.21 37.47 74.92 2.39 0.11 48.33
================================================================================
WASDE – 604 – 28 September 2020

Running Bales Ginned by Crop – States and United States: September 1, 2017-2020
[Excluding linters]
————————————————————————————————————————
: Running bales ginned
:—————————————————————————————————
Crop and State : 2017 Crop : 2018 Crop : 2019 Crop : 2020 Crop
:—————————————————————————————————
: September 1, 2017 : September 1, 2018 : September 1, 2019 : September 1, 2020
————————————————————————————————————————
Upland :
United States ……: 570,650 489,100 359,250 287,750
American Pima :
United States ……: – – – –
All :
United States ……: 570,650 489,100 359,250 287,750
————————————————————————————————————————
– Represents zero.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 08, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 257,566
: Positions :
: 46,594 11,761 57,267 54,277 168,979 86,018 9,669 244,156 247,675: 13,410 9,890
: Changes from: September 1, 2020 (Change in open interest: 7,370) :
: -6,251 2,391 2,462 13,973 -878 -745 2,556 9,439 6,532: -2,069 838
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.1 4.6 22.2 21.1 65.6 33.4 3.8 94.8 96.2: 5.2 3.8
: Total Traders: 269 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 87 48 76 56 66 47 21 224 188:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ On-Call Cotton – Sep 11
As of Sep 5. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Oct 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 20 37,896 37,574 322 19,768 20,331 -563
Mar 21 25,811 25,369 442 10,618 10,203 415
May 21 9,805 9,353 452 1,261 1,226 35
Jul 21 14,650 14,358 292 2,934 2,934 0
Oct 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 21 7,605 7,343 262 10,155 10,191 -36
Mar 22 1,449 1,194 255 212 172 40
May 22 381 153 228 26 0 26
Jul 22 428 226 202 409 396 13
Dec 22 0 0 0 1,263 1,175 88
Jul 23 0 0 0 220 220 0
Dec 23 0 0 0 227 227 0
Mar 24 0 0 0 441 441 0
Total 98,025 95,570 2,455 47,534 47,516 18
Open Open Change
Int Int
Oct 20 128 116 12
Dec 20 122,240 118,184 4,056
Mar 21 51,121 48,770 2,351
May 21 12,910 12,171 739
Jul 21 10,035 8,332 1,703
Oct 21 2 2 0
Dec 21 16,530 15,971 559
Mar 22 717 713 4
May 22 187 191 -4
Jul 22 274 249 25
Dec 22 327 320 7
Jul 23 1 1 0
Dec 23 0 0 0
Mar 24 0 0 0
Total 214,472 205,020 9,452

FCOJ
General Comments FCOJ was lower. The daily and weekly charts show that trends are starting to turn down again. USDA left its Florida production estimate unchanged at 67.7 million boxes. This was about as expected by the trade. No hurricanes have hit Florida yet. The systems have all gone south into the Gulf of Mexico or north into the Carolinas. That usually means lower prices for futures but prices are already relatively cheap. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is really dining out. Florida production prospects for the new crop were hurt by an extended flowering period, but the weather is good now with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Import demand to the US should be minimal as US prices remain below those of Europe. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Some showers are in the region now to help in Sao Paulo.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against September contracts for delivery and that deliveries for the month are now 273 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 114.00, 113.00, and 110.00 November, with resistance at 118.00, 121.00, and 126.00 November.

DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. Citrus Fruits-Sep 11
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States
and United States: 2019-2020,
and Forecasted September 1, 2020
(The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends
with the completion of harvest the following year.)
=========================================================================
Utilized Production Utilized production
Boxes 1/ Ton Equivalent
Crop and State ========================================================
2019-2020 2020-2021 2019-2020 2020-2021
=========================================================================
=== 1,000 boxes === === 1,000 tons ===
California, all 53,300 2,132
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 44,300 42,000 1,772 1,680
Valencia 9,000 360
Florida, all 67,300 3,028
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 29,650 1,334
Valencia 37,650 1,694
Texas, all 1,340 57
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 1,150 49
Valencia 190 8
United States, all 121,940 5,217
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 75,100 3,155
Valencia 46,840 2,062
=========================================================================
1/ Net pounds per box: California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85.
2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel)
and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 8, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 10,460 :
: Positions :
: 4,560 6,450 777 0 0 1,399 541 60 504 662 1,218 :
: Changes from: September 1, 2020 :
: -354 -253 53 0 0 41 31 2 42 -15 -20 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 43.6 61.7 7.4 0.0 0.0 13.4 5.2 0.6 4.8 6.3 11.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 49 :
: 17 8 . 0 0 6 6 . 11 5 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower last week in New York and in London. New York hit a wall of selling at the 135.00 area basis December futures. London has been the leader on the recent rally as demand for Robusta has improved with people staying at home. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home and the return of the Coronavirus outbreak will keep things that way. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. Vietnam was dry during flowering time and is dry again. Production ideas are lower. The Brazil harvest is almost over but shipping has become difficult due to the widespread outbreak of the Coronavirus there. Even so, the ports are operating normally. Ideas are that production will be very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. The strong production ideas are coming despite hot and dry weather seen in the country at flowering time.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.117 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 123.36 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 450 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 127.00, 123.00, and 121.00 December, and resistance is at 135.00, 137.00 and 138.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1380 and 1330 November. Support is at 1400, 1380, and 1370 November, and resistance is at 1440, 1470, and 1480 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 08, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 338,190
: Positions :
: 45,738 12,646 100,487 102,187 202,516 76,276 12,539 324,688 328,188: 13,502 10,002
: Changes from: September 1, 2020 (Change in open interest: 1,905) :
: 1,333 -2,519 2,001 -2,954 1,510 1,769 -161 2,150 832: -245 1,073
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.5 3.7 29.7 30.2 59.9 22.6 3.7 96.0 97.0: 4.0 3.0
: Total Traders: 428 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 141 70 132 113 127 48 21 370 302:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed slightly lower and London was higher on speculative and fund related buying seen in London. Chart trends are down in both markets. UNICA noted less production of ethanol and Sugar from cane in its latest report and said that bad weather kept farmers out of the fields. Ethanol demand is down, anyway, so mills there are producing more Sugar in the mix.. Ideas are that there is plenty of Sugar for the world market. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult due to Coronavirus lock downs. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China to hinder irrigation of the crops.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1240, 1230, and 1220 March, and resistance is at 1290, 1300, and 1310 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 353.00 December. Support is at 351.00, 347.00, and 345.00 December, and resistance is at 360.00, 364.00, and 367.00 December.

Sugarbeet Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States: 2019 and
Forecasted August 1, 2020
[Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except California]
—————————————————————————————
: Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production
State :———————————————————————–
: 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020
—————————————————————————————
: — 1,000 acres — —– tons —– — 1,000 tons —
United States .: 979.3 1,126.8 29.2 31.4 28,600 35,393
—————————————————————————————
1/ Relates to year of planting for overwintered beets in southern California.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and
United States: 2019 and Forecasted August 1, 2020
————————————————————————————–
: Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/
State :———————————————————————–
: 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020
————————————————————————————–
: — 1,000 acres — —– tons —– — 1,000 tons —
United States : 913.2 924.4 35.0 36.2 31,937 33,478
————————————————————————————–
1/ Net tons.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2018/19 2019/20 Est. 2020/21 Proj. 2020/21 Proj.
Item Aug Sep
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 2008 1783 1744 1745
Production 2/ 8999 7989 9265 9292
Beet Sugar 4939 4244 5199 5165
Cane Sugar 4060 3745 4066 4127
Florida 2005 2106 2135 2135
Hawaii 0 0 0 0
Louisiana 1907 1513 1850 1850
Texas 147 126 81 142
Imports 3070 4263 3044 2913
TRQ 3/ 1541 2256 1565 1624
Other Program 4/ 438 415 350 350
Other 5/ 1092 1592 1129 938
Mexico 1000 1382 1079 888
Total Supply 14077 14035 14053 13949
Exports 35 35 35 35
Deliveries 12231 12255 12230 12255
Food 12106 12150 12125 12150
Other 6/ 126 105 105 105
Miscellaneous 28 0 0 0
Total Use 12294 12290 12265 12290
Ending Stocks 1783 1745 1788 1659
Stocks to Use Ratio 14.5 14.2 14.6 13.5
================================================================================
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================

1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2019/20 Est.
Aug 1169 5278 91 4498 1233 807
Sep 1169 5278 105 4518 1222 812
2020/21 Proj.
Aug 807 6000 89 4468 1497 931
Sep 812 6000 89 4468 1502 931
================================================================================
WASDE – 604 – 17 September 2020

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 08, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,219,343
: Positions :
: 165,199 43,925 219,774 430,632 848,229 313,096 54,015 1,128,701 1,165,943: 90,642 53,400
: Changes from: September 1, 2020 (Change in open interest: -27,566) :
: -15,464 3,732 -12,255 12,373 -24,538 -3,338 1,141 -18,685 -31,920: -8,882 4,354
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.5 3.6 18.0 35.3 69.6 25.7 4.4 92.6 95.6: 7.4 4.4
: Total Traders: 256 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 67 41 77 83 79 42 22 234 186:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower in correction trading. It was a rather narrow range week for both markets. The charts show that both markets are in sideways trends. The current crop features strong production but there are worries about the next crop. Nigerian traders told the wire services that the Nigerian rainfall has started and that crop conditions are much improved. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Europe is still trying to open its markets again but the Coronavirus is still around and consumers are reluctant to buy. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.723 million bags. ICE said that 68 notices were posted for delivery today against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 965 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2450, 2380, and 2320 December. Support is at 2520, 2500, and 2470 December, with resistance at 2590, 2650, and 2710 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1740, 1690, and 1630 December. Support is at 1760, 1730, and 1700 December, with resistance at 1830, 1850, and 1880 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 08, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 246,300
: Positions :
: 45,268 29,558 48,705 78,535 144,288 61,369 15,765 233,876 238,316: 12,424 7,984
: Changes from: September 1, 2020 (Change in open interest: -3,842) :
: 1,849 1,559 -364 -4,315 -5,126 -1,190 -1,000 -4,020 -4,930: 178 1,088
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.4 12.0 19.8 31.9 58.6 24.9 6.4 95.0 96.8: 5.0 3.2
: Total Traders: 223 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 81 44 55 44 44 35 17 187 139:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322