About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2020 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Friday.
U.S. 2020 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA August USDA 2019
Corn Production 14,833 14,625-15,095 15,278 13,617
Soybean Production 4,286 4,192-4,391 4,425 3,552
Corn Yield 177.7 174.8-181.0 181.8 167.4
Soybean Yield 51.6 50.5-52.9 53.3 47.4
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Production Yield
Allendale 14,890 178.3 4,311 51.9
DC Analysis 14,757 177.8 4,291 51.7
Doane 14,820 177.5 4,360 52.5
EDF Man 14,987 181.0 4,316 52.0
Futures Intl 14,838 177.7 4,316 52.2
Grain Cycles 14,759 176.5 4,217 50.8
Hueber Report 14,917 177.6 4,267 51.4
Kapco Futures 14,734 175.4 4,358 52.5
Linn Group 14,625 176.6 4,250 51.2
Sid Love Consulting 14,774 178.0 4,331 52.5
Midland Research 14,875 177.7 4,275 51.5
Midwest Market Solutions 14,972 178.2 4,310 51.9
Northstar 14,876 177.1 4,351 51.8
Prime Ag 14,816 178.5 4,200 50.6
RJOBrien 14,677 174.8 4,237 51.0
RMC 14,738 176.5 4,192 50.5
StoneX Group 14,997 179.6 4,391 52.9
US Commodities 14,768 179.0 4,223 51.0
Vantage RM 15,095 179.7 4,250 51.2
Western Milling 14,784 176.0 4,262 51.6
Zaner Ag Hedge 14,803 179.0 4,307 51.9

DJ U.S. September Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2019-20 and 2020-21, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2019-20
Average Range USDA August
Corn 2,271 2,128-2,756 2,228
Soybeans 605 561-664 615
2020-21
Average Range USDA August
Corn 2,439 2,152-2,697 2,756
Soybeans 461 379-576 610
Wheat 926 900-948 925
2019-20 2020-21
Corn Soybeans Corn Soybeans Wheat
Allendale 2,210 578 2,527 379 926
DC Analysis 2,243 600 2,400 461 925
Doane 2,245 580 2,495 450 925
EDF Man 2,228 615 2,390 481 925
Futures Intl 2,326 574 2,589 540 900
Grain Cycles 2,218 620 2,527 407 925
Hueber 2,230 613 2,395 452 925
Kapco Futures 2,177 543
Linn Group 2,150 600 2,356 400 935
Sid Love Consulting 2,128 608 2,152 529 931
Midland Research 2,258 605 2,558 450 935
Midwest Market Solutions 2,268 620 2,665 542 945
Northstar 2,240 600 2,416 495 925
Prime Ag 2,228 615 2,290 390 925
RJOBrien 2,338 561 2,225 383 917
RMC 2,756 610 2,325 395 925
StoneX Group 2,203 600 2,524 576 948
US Commodities 2,303 620 2,546 413 925
Vantage RM 2,228 615 2,498 420 925
Western Milling 2,343 664 2,697 498 935
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,268 605 2,468 472 900

DJ September World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2019-20 and 2020-21, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2019-20
Average Range USDA August
Corn 311.7 309.1-317.5 311.3
Soybeans 95.6 94.0-96.5 95.9
Wheat 302.8 299.0-316.8 300.9
2020-21
Average Range USDA August
Corn 310.4 304.0-317.0 317.5
Soybeans 93.2 89.5-100.0 95.4
Wheat 316.1 313.1-319.0 316.8
2019-20 2020-21
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Allendale 311.2 95.6 300.9 314.4 92.4 316.6
EDF Man 311.0 96.0 300.9 307.0 92.0 316.0
Futures Intl 314.3 94.0 310.0 91.0 314.5
Grain Cycles 311.0 96.0 301.0 309.0 89.5 317.5
Hueber Report 311.0 95.5 301.0 308.0 91.0 315.0
Linn Group 305.0 93.0 319.0
Midwest Market Solutions 311.4 95.5 300.5 317.0 95.5 316.9
Northstar 310.0 95.2 300.9 304.0 92.5 317.0
Prime Ag 311.0 95.0 300.0 307.0 91.0 316.0
RMC 317.5 95.4 316.8 308.0 90.0 316.0
StoneX Group 309.1 96.1 309.1 309.2 100.0 313.1
US Commodities 311.3 96.5 299.0 317.0 96.0 317.0
Western Milling 312.0 96.0 300.9 315.0 97.0 317.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 314.4 93.8 313.9

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Sep 11
For the week ended Sep 3, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The 2019-20 marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1. The
2019-20 marketing year for rice and cotton began Aug 1. The 2019-20
marketing year for soymeal and soyoil will begin Oct 1.
For corn, soybeans and sorghum, “this year” is the 2020-2021
marketing year, which began Sep 1, while “last year” is 2019-2020.
Source: USDA
wk’s net change total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 484.4 0.0 12948.1 12006.3 5688.2 16.9
hrw 144.2 0.0 4856.6 4494.6 1856.1 10.9
srw -3.0 0.0 1085.6 1517.5 517.5 1.0
hrs 102.1 0.0 3805.4 3358.6 1831.7 5.0
white 239.9 0.0 2712.1 2147.0 1226.0 0.0
durum 1.2 0.0 488.4 488.8 256.8 0.0
corn 3073.7-a 0.0 18846.9 7190.3 18601.2 206.0
soybeans 5700.0-b 0.0 29885.9 9452.7 29359.7 60.0
soymeal 26.6 333.0 12185.5 12084.3 1086.2 1870.6
soyoil 4.1 -3.0 1276.9 899.8 121.8 102.0
upland cotton 28.9 0.0 494.6 1071.4 352.9 0.0
pima cotton 126.7 70.4 7110.0 8322.2 5627.9 399.5
sorghum 163.9-c 0.0 2448.0 67.5 2415.0 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 39.2 57.4 30.8 0.0
rice 6.8 0.0 95.4 145.9 42.6 0.0
-a: Includes new sales activity for Aug 28-Sep 3 which
resulted in a net increase of 1823.3 thousand metric tons. Also includes
1250.4 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2019-2020.
-b: Includes new sales activity for Aug 28-Sep 3 which resulted in a
a net increase of 3161.8 thousand metric tons. Also includes
2538.2 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2019-2020.
-c: Includes new sales activity for Aug 28-Sep 3 which resulted in
a net increase of 56.0 thousand metric tons. Also includes
107.9 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2019-2020.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 11
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep. 14, 2020 60 Sep 09, 2020
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep. 14, 2020 227 Aug 28, 2020
SOYBEAN September Sep. 14, 2020 2 Aug 31, 2020
WHEAT September Sep. 14, 2020 11 Sep 04, 2020

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher as Black Sea prices have been firming. The Russian farmer is not selling to exporters as they can get better prices internally. Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions in both the US and Canada. However, a frost was reported in these areas this week and some light damage is possible to some crops. Harvest has expanded and yield reports are solid in the northern Plains. It is still dry in France and Russia. Australia remains in good condition and is getting beneficial rains. About half of the Argentine Wheat belt is too dry and wire reports indicate that production in the worst areas could be 50% of normal.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 530, 509, and 504 December. Support is at 542, 539, and 527 December, with resistance at 557, 560, and 570 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 473, 467, and 465 December, with resistance at 485, 490, and 496 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 505 December. Support is at 533, 530, and 525 December, and resistance is at 539, 544, and 545 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher. The market is looking for Rice and is not finding much selling interest from producers. New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year but there are questions on quality after storms hit Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas in recent weeks. The area is larger and the growing conditions were mostly good until the storms hit. The crops are called in good condition in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Texas and southern Louisiana field yield reports are strong. Quality has been mixed, with some Rice grading well and some not so well due to the storms. Demand ideas are strong. Brazil is reported to have bought a couple of cargoes of Rice late last week as it has run short. The fact that Brazil is buying from the US means that competition for sales in the Western Hemisphere will be significantly less this year and should support somewhat higher prices for US Rice and futures markets.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1237, 1231, and 1220 November, with resistance at 1260, 1267, and 1280 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher in front of the USDA reports that will be released on Friday. There was no demand news and funds and other speculators were buyers. The rains seen over the weekend were beneficial and more are coming. It is much cooler in the Midwest now and a frost was reported in northern Minnesota and northern North Dakota. Demand has also been strong with a lot of Chinese buying. China has bought a lot of US Corn lately to fulfill short domestic production. China has also been offering Corn out of state reserves to try to keep the market supplied and has apparently succeeded as demand for the domestic Corn has tailed off in the latest round of offers. The US harvest is getting ready to start and there will be less production than had been estimated earlier by the trade. The production should still be enough to add to ending stocks even with the strong Chinese demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 367 and 374 December. Support is at 359, 354, and 348 December, and resistance is at 371, 374, and 377 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 269, 265, and 262 December, and resistance is at 274, 279, and 282 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were mixed. Soybeans made new highs for the move and Soybean Oil is locked in a range. Rains and cooler temperatures were seen in the Midwest starting on Sunday and should continue through the balance of this week. The change in the weather pattern should help the Soybeans on their way to maturity. A freeze was reported in the Dakotas yesterday and some minor damage to Soybeans is expected. The production totals are expected to be big, although not as large as the original forecasts made by private analysts. The weather will start to lose its bullish influence on prices in the next few weeks and the harvesters get ready to roll. Demand from China has held strong but might be about to end. China is now booking Soybeans into dates that are close to the first shipping dates from Brazil and will no doubt start to look to the south for additional supplies. Prices for new crop Soybeans are cheaper in Brazil.
Overnight News: China bought 262,000 tons of US Soybeans and unknown destinations bought 222,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 967, 959, and 957 November, and resistance is at 982, 986, and 992 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 315.00 and 322.00 October. Support is at 308.00, 306.00, and 302.00 October, and resistance is at 316.00, 318.00, and 321.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3260, 3200, and 3180 October, with resistance at 3390, 3430, and 3460 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on weaker export data from the private services. Demand reports from the private surveyors were down and this is becoming a bigger problem for higher prices. Production ideas are down as workers for the plantations are harder to find, but the market appears to have priced itself out of the demand base. Flooding and a lack of workers for the plantations have been the reasons to see less production in Malaysia. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola was higher as a freeze is in the forecast and could threaten some crops. Canola closed lower after the freeze event in the Prairies. The freeze apparently did not damage that much of the crop. Crop conditions are mostly good and farmers have been selling old crop supplies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 521.00 November. Support is at 505.00, 502.00, and 501.00 November, with resistance at 515.00, 518.00, and 521.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2760, 2700, and 2650 November, with resistance at 2900, 2920, and 2940 November.

DJ Malaysia Sept. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports 472,780 Tons, Up 10.0%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Sept. 1-10 period are estimated 10.0% higher on month at 472,780 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Thursday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Sept. 1-10 Aug. 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 128,225 158,360
RBD Palm Oil 27,375 28,580
RBD Palm Stearin 42,560 24,205
Crude Palm Oil 128,285 74,045
Total* 472,780 429,937

DJ Malaysia’s August Palm Oil Exports 1.58M Tons; Down 11%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were down 11% on month at 1.58 million metric tons in August, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the August crop data and revised numbers for July, issued by MPOB:
August July Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,862,962 1,807,397 Up 3.07%
Palm Oil Exports 1,581,612 1,783,284 Dn 11.31%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 102,379 100,584 Up 1.78%
Palm Oil Imports 32,311 52,691 Dn 38.68%
Closing Stocks 1,699,106 1,698,036 Up 0.06%
Crude Palm Oil 930,295 868,664 Up 7.09%
Processed Palm Oil 768,811 829,372 Dn 7.3%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and storms in all areas today, drier after this weekend. Temperatures should average below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September +49 Dec +160 Dec +65 Sep +84 Nov +15 Dec N/A
October +52 Dec +65 Dec +72 Nov
November +60 Dec +65 Dec +77 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 9
WINNIPEG, Sept. 9 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 474.80 -36.10 Nov 2020 up 7.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 517.40 12.00 Nov 2020 up 1.70
Basis: Vancouver 529.40 24.00 Nov 2020 up 1.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 730.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 705.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 680.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 665.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 732.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 707.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 682.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 667.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 730.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 655.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 2,890.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 188.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1510)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 227,061 lots, or 10.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 4,648 4,648 4,647 4,647 4,670 4,647 -23 379 789
Nov-20 4,416 4,453 4,376 4,440 4,437 4,401 -36 615 1,624
Jan-21 4,445 4,472 4,384 4,459 4,457 4,428 -29 215,211 124,526
Mar-21 4,462 4,492 4,405 4,480 4,468 4,443 -25 977 2,785
May-21 4,500 4,519 4,460 4,509 4,517 4,493 -24 8,521 10,704
Jul-21 4,527 4,536 4,482 4,523 4,530 4,510 -20 1,358 1,203
Corn
Turnover: 1,149,631 lots, or 27.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 2,286 2,325 2,286 2,313 2,295 2,311 16 1,308 1,550
Nov-20 2,339 2,373 2,335 2,367 2,328 2,354 26 65,377 29,498
Jan-21 2,370 2,401 2,361 2,398 2,356 2,383 27 874,180 1,425,515
Mar-21 2,393 2,425 2,385 2,420 2,385 2,406 21 24,984 27,824
May-21 2,405 2,441 2,400 2,437 2,396 2,422 26 136,549 467,829
Jul-21 2,418 2,447 2,413 2,442 2,416 2,427 11 47,233 75,987
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,075,788 lots, or 62.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 2,999 2,999 2,999 2,999 2,962 2,999 37 50 489
Nov-20 2,983 3,047 2,973 3,044 2,990 3,009 19 77,780 64,083
Dec-20 2,975 3,056 2,975 3,056 2,994 3,008 14 1,615 1,665
Jan-21 3,003 3,070 2,992 3,066 3,002 3,034 32 1,567,059 1,551,899
Mar-21 2,895 2,952 2,886 2,951 2,898 2,914 16 18,323 18,105
May-21 2,858 2,905 2,843 2,901 2,858 2,873 15 353,476 793,884
Jul-21 2,868 2,913 2,856 2,911 2,873 2,873 0 51,190 15,482
Aug-21 2,911 2,958 2,900 2,953 2,917 2,929 12 6,295 5,116
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,019,981 lots, or 59.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 – – – 6,488 6,488 6,488 0 0 25
Oct-20 6,058 6,068 6,006 6,068 6,036 6,032 -4 38 1,559
Nov-20 6,028 6,028 5,938 6,016 5,982 5,988 6 8,273 4,440
Dec-20 5,886 5,896 5,818 5,894 5,872 5,884 12 48,054 639
Jan-21 5,880 5,888 5,786 5,876 5,858 5,848 -10 789,822 417,996
Feb-21 5,846 5,858 5,766 5,846 5,822 5,828 6 126,040 14,247
Mar-21 5,820 5,838 5,754 5,830 5,806 5,802 -4 12,818 2,674
Apr-21 – – – 5,778 5,778 5,778 0 0 152
May-21 5,768 5,774 5,690 5,752 5,760 5,740 -20 34,936 67,547
Jun-21 – – – 5,764 5,764 5,764 0 0 0
Jul-21 – – – 5,748 5,748 5,748 0 0 5
Aug-21 – – – 5,830 5,830 5,830 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 733,645 lots, or 49.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 6,700 6,788 6,680 6,788 6,772 6,780 8 54 264
Nov-20 6,786 6,830 6,718 6,818 6,780 6,768 -12 17,871 5,199
Dec-20 6,800 6,820 6,740 6,820 6,800 6,782 -18 93 343
Jan-21 6,802 6,838 6,720 6,832 6,792 6,774 -18 620,904 603,388
Mar-21 6,762 6,830 6,694 6,800 6,762 6,746 -16 22,091 6,543
May-21 6,646 6,664 6,564 6,664 6,640 6,616 -24 54,358 186,031
Jul-21 6,592 6,616 6,516 6,612 6,582 6,560 -22 18,274 5,985
Aug-21 – – – 6,596 6,596 6,596 0 0 12
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322