About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2020 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Friday.
U.S. 2020 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA August USDA 2019
Corn Production 14,833 14,625-15,095 15,278 13,617
Soybean Production 4,286 4,192-4,391 4,425 3,552
Corn Yield 177.7 174.8-181.0 181.8 167.4
Soybean Yield 51.6 50.5-52.9 53.3 47.4
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Production Yield
Allendale 14,890 178.3 4,311 51.9
DC Analysis 14,757 177.8 4,291 51.7
Doane 14,820 177.5 4,360 52.5
EDF Man 14,987 181.0 4,316 52.0
Futures Intl 14,838 177.7 4,316 52.2
Grain Cycles 14,759 176.5 4,217 50.8
Hueber Report 14,917 177.6 4,267 51.4
Kapco Futures 14,734 175.4 4,358 52.5
Linn Group 14,625 176.6 4,250 51.2
Sid Love Consulting 14,774 178.0 4,331 52.5
Midland Research 14,875 177.7 4,275 51.5
Midwest Market Solutions 14,972 178.2 4,310 51.9
Northstar 14,876 177.1 4,351 51.8
Prime Ag 14,816 178.5 4,200 50.6
RJOBrien 14,677 174.8 4,237 51.0
RMC 14,738 176.5 4,192 50.5
StoneX Group 14,997 179.6 4,391 52.9
US Commodities 14,768 179.0 4,223 51.0
Vantage RM 15,095 179.7 4,250 51.2
Western Milling 14,784 176.0 4,262 51.6
Zaner Ag Hedge 14,803 179.0 4,307 51.9

DJ U.S. September Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2019-20 and 2020-21, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2019-20
Average Range USDA August
Corn 2,271 2,128-2,756 2,228
Soybeans 605 561-664 615
2020-21
Average Range USDA August
Corn 2,439 2,152-2,697 2,756
Soybeans 461 379-576 610
Wheat 926 900-948 925
2019-20 2020-21
Corn Soybeans Corn Soybeans Wheat
Allendale 2,210 578 2,527 379 926
DC Analysis 2,243 600 2,400 461 925
Doane 2,245 580 2,495 450 925
EDF Man 2,228 615 2,390 481 925
Futures Intl 2,326 574 2,589 540 900
Grain Cycles 2,218 620 2,527 407 925
Hueber 2,230 613 2,395 452 925
Kapco Futures 2,177 543
Linn Group 2,150 600 2,356 400 935
Sid Love Consulting 2,128 608 2,152 529 931
Midland Research 2,258 605 2,558 450 935
Midwest Market Solutions 2,268 620 2,665 542 945
Northstar 2,240 600 2,416 495 925
Prime Ag 2,228 615 2,290 390 925
RJOBrien 2,338 561 2,225 383 917
RMC 2,756 610 2,325 395 925
StoneX Group 2,203 600 2,524 576 948
US Commodities 2,303 620 2,546 413 925
Vantage RM 2,228 615 2,498 420 925
Western Milling 2,343 664 2,697 498 935
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,268 605 2,468 472 900

DJ September World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2019-20 and 2020-21, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2019-20
Average Range USDA August
Corn 311.7 309.1-317.5 311.3
Soybeans 95.6 94.0-96.5 95.9
Wheat 302.8 299.0-316.8 300.9
2020-21
Average Range USDA August
Corn 310.4 304.0-317.0 317.5
Soybeans 93.2 89.5-100.0 95.4
Wheat 316.1 313.1-319.0 316.8
2019-20 2020-21
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Allendale 311.2 95.6 300.9 314.4 92.4 316.6
EDF Man 311.0 96.0 300.9 307.0 92.0 316.0
Futures Intl 314.3 94.0 310.0 91.0 314.5
Grain Cycles 311.0 96.0 301.0 309.0 89.5 317.5
Hueber Report 311.0 95.5 301.0 308.0 91.0 315.0
Linn Group 305.0 93.0 319.0
Midwest Market Solutions 311.4 95.5 300.5 317.0 95.5 316.9
Northstar 310.0 95.2 300.9 304.0 92.5 317.0
Prime Ag 311.0 95.0 300.0 307.0 91.0 316.0
RMC 317.5 95.4 316.8 308.0 90.0 316.0
StoneX Group 309.1 96.1 309.1 309.2 100.0 313.1
US Commodities 311.3 96.5 299.0 317.0 96.0 317.0
Western Milling 312.0 96.0 300.9 315.0 97.0 317.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 314.4 93.8 313.9

DJ Brazil Raises 2019-2020 Soybean and Corn Production Estimates
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency Conab raised its estimates for soybean and corn production for the 2019-2020 growing season as good weather boosted productivity.
Brazilian farmers produced a record 124.8 million metric tons of soybeans this season as the country pushed past the U.S. to become the world’s biggest producer of the oilseed, the agency said Thursday. In August, the agency forecast a crop of 120.9 million tons for 2019-2020, for which harvesting has finished. Brazil produced 119.7 million tons of soybeans in 2018-2019.
The U.S. had long been the world’s biggest soybean producer, except for one previous year when Brazil squeaked past it, but President Donald Trump’s trade conflict with China cut demand from the Asian country for American farm products and U.S. farmers reacted by reducing their output of soybeans. The USDA forecasts Brazil will outproduce the U.S. in the 2020-2021 season as well.
The good weather in Brazil’s agricultural areas also boosted production of corn. The country grows three crops, one in Brazil’s summer, one during its mild winter and another in the north of the country, that grows on the same schedule as in the Northern Hemisphere. Harvesting for the winter crop is almost finished, and the northern crop, which represents less than 2% of total production.
Brazil grew 102.5 million tons of corn in 2019-2020, the agency said, compared with Conab’s August forecast 0f 102.1 million tons. In 2018-2019, the country’s farmers grew 100 million tons of corn.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 10
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep. 11, 2020 30 Sep 09, 2020
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep. 11, 2020 1 Aug 27, 2020
CORN September Sep. 11, 2020 2 Aug 31, 2020
SOYBEAN September Sep. 11, 2020 1 Aug 27, 2020
WHEAT September Sep. 11, 2020 9 Sep 02, 2020

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed. The market is still reacting to which way Wheat prices are going here and overseas. Black Sea prices have been firming. The Russian farmer is not selling to exporters as they can get better prices internally. Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions in both the US and Canada. However, a frost was reported in these areas this week and some light damage is possible to some crops. Harvest has expanded and yield reports are solid in the northern Plains. It is still dry in France and Russia. Australia remains in good condition and is getting beneficial rains. About half of the Argentine Wheat belt is too dry and wire reports indicate that production in the worst areas could be 50% of normal.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 530, 509, and 504 December. Support is at 542, 539, and 527 December, with resistance at 551, 560, and 570 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 450 and 429 December. Support is at 465, 463, and 457 December, with resistance at 477, 482, and 490 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 535, 533, and 530 December, and resistance is at 545, 549, and 554 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in consolidation trading. It was a low volume day. The market is looking for Rice and is not finding much selling interest from producers. New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year but there are questions on quality after storms hit Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas in recent weeks. The area is larger and the growing conditions were mostly good until the storms hit. The crops are called in good condition in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Texas and southern Louisiana field yield reports are strong. Quality has been mixed, with some Rice grading well and some not so well due to the storms. Brazil is reported to have bought a couple of cargoes of Rice late last week as it has run short. The fact that Brazil is buying from the US means that competition for sales in the Western Hemisphere will be significantly less this year and should support somewhat higher prices for US Rice and futures markets.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1231 1220, and 1204 November, with resistance at 1254, 1260, and 1267 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower in front of the USDA reports that will be released on Friday. There was no demand news and funds and other speculators were light volume sellers. The rains seen over the weekend were beneficial and more are coming. It is much cooler in the Midwest now and a frost was reported in northern Minnesota and northern North Dakota. Demand has also been strong with a lot of Chinese buying. China has bought a lot of US Corn lately to fulfill short domestic production. China has also been offering Corn out of state reserves to try to keep the market supplied and has apparently succeeded as demand for the domestic Corn has tailed off in the latest round of offers. The US harvest is getting ready to start and there will be less production than had been estimated earlier by the trade. The production should still be enough to add to ending stocks even with the strong Chinese demand. The current higher prices might not last much longer and a move back down into harvest lows is probable.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 365, 367, and 374 December. Support is at 359, 354, and 348 December, and resistance is at 363, 364, and 371 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 263 December. Support is at 265, 263, and 260 December, and resistance is at 274, 279, and 282 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher, but Soybean Oil was lower. Soybeans made new highs for the move and Soybean Oil is locked in a range. Rains and cooler temperatures were seen in the Midwest starting on Sunday and should continue through the balance of this week. The change in the weather pattern should help the Soybeans on their way to maturity. A freeze was reported in the Dakotas yesterday and some minor damage to Soybeans is expected. The production totals are expected to be big, although not as large as the original forecasts made by private analysts. The weather will start to lose its bullish influence on prices in the next few weeks and the harvesters get ready to roll. Demand from China has held strong but might be about to end. China is now booking Soybeans into dates that are close to the first shipping dates from Brazil and will no doubt start to look to the south for additional supplies. Prices for new crop Soybeans are cheaper in Brazil.
Overnight News: China bought 195,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 967, 959, and 957 November, and resistance is at 982, 986, and 992 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 315.00 and 322.00 October. Support is at 308.00, 306.00, and 302.00 October, and resistance is at 316.00, 318.00, and 321.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3260, 3200, and 3180 October, with resistance at 3390, 3430, and 3460 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed lower on weaker export data from the private services. Demand reports from the private surveyors were down and this is becoming a bigger problem for higher prices. Production ideas are down as workers for the plantations are harder to find, but the market appears to have priced itself out of the demand base. Flooding and a lack of workers for the plantations have been the reasons to see less production in Malaysia. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola was higher as a freeze is in the forecast and could threaten some crops. Canola closed lower after the freeze event in the Prairies. The freeze apparently did not damage that much of the crop. Crop conditions are mostly good and farmers have been selling old crop supplies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 521.00 November. Support is at 502.00, 501.00, and 5494.00 November, with resistance at 515.00, 518.00, and 521.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2810, 2760, and 2700 November, with resistance at 2900, 2920, and 2940 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and storms in all areas today. Temperatures should average elow normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September +48 Dec +151 Dec +65 Sep +78 Nov +15 Dec N/A
October +52 Dec +65 Dec +72 Nov
November +59 Dec +65 Dec +76 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 9
WINNIPEG, Sept. 9 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 474.80 -36.10 Nov 2020 up 7.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 517.40 12.00 Nov 2020 up 1.70
Basis: Vancouver 529.40 24.00 Nov 2020 up 1.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 732.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 705.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 682.50 -02.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 667.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 735.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 707.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 685.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 670.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 730.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 655.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 2,920.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 190.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1620)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 138,696 lots, or 6.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 4,680 4,680 4,660 4,660 4,705 4,670 -35 40 949
Nov-20 4,457 4,470 4,414 4,418 4,427 4,437 10 184 2,038
Jan-21 4,516 4,516 4,436 4,439 4,462 4,457 -5 133,852 130,406
Mar-21 4,505 4,505 4,452 4,462 4,473 4,468 -5 677 2,778
May-21 4,542 4,551 4,499 4,502 4,516 4,517 1 3,515 7,899
Jul-21 4,548 4,549 4,511 4,522 4,532 4,530 -2 428 1,138
Corn
Turnover: 1,334,078 lots, or 31.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 2,293 2,296 2,293 2,296 2,261 2,295 34 150 462
Nov-20 2,307 2,345 2,303 2,343 2,305 2,328 23 93,460 28,056
Jan-21 2,335 2,372 2,332 2,370 2,333 2,356 23 947,656 1,360,893
Mar-21 2,366 2,396 2,360 2,393 2,359 2,385 26 54,512 27,217
May-21 2,382 2,408 2,379 2,406 2,380 2,396 16 177,752 471,850
Jul-21 2,409 2,427 2,405 2,418 2,407 2,416 9 60,548 75,237
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,539,493 lots, or 45.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 2,967 2,967 2,962 2,962 2,930 2,962 32 23 448
Nov-20 2,979 3,012 2,972 2,975 2,962 2,990 28 58,273 68,784
Dec-20 2,983 3,015 2,980 2,989 2,968 2,994 26 2,953 1,696
Jan-21 2,993 3,019 2,985 2,996 2,977 3,002 25 1,160,669 1,393,423
Mar-21 2,892 2,912 2,881 2,893 2,882 2,898 16 12,067 15,938
May-21 2,854 2,872 2,842 2,852 2,843 2,858 15 268,015 785,079
Jul-21 2,873 2,888 2,856 2,865 2,862 2,873 11 33,582 14,945
Aug-21 2,905 2,931 2,901 2,909 2,904 2,917 13 3,911 5,411
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,215,500 lots, or 71.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 – – – 6,488 6,488 6,488 0 0 25
Oct-20 6,018 6,128 5,994 6,066 6,114 6,036 -78 136 1,577
Nov-20 5,978 6,086 5,944 6,014 6,018 5,982 -36 10,804 4,319
Dec-20 5,860 5,942 5,838 5,908 5,932 5,872 -60 483 643
Jan-21 5,862 5,934 5,808 5,882 5,896 5,858 -38 1,079,265 411,795
Feb-21 5,832 5,898 5,780 5,854 5,870 5,822 -48 74,059 14,113
Mar-21 5,832 5,882 5,770 5,844 5,852 5,806 -46 14,989 2,619
Apr-21 5,778 5,778 5,778 5,778 5,778 5,778 0 1 152
May-21 5,762 5,826 5,714 5,776 5,790 5,760 -30 35,757 65,568
Jun-21 5,764 5,764 5,764 5,764 5,758 5,764 6 1 0
Jul-21 5,712 5,770 5,712 5,756 5,774 5,748 -26 5 5
Aug-21 – – – 5,830 5,856 5,830 -26 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 864,452 lots, or 58.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 6,780 6,792 6,738 6,738 6,776 6,772 -4 703 426
Nov-20 6,784 6,826 6,744 6,798 6,802 6,780 -22 19,630 5,457
Dec-20 6,792 6,838 6,752 6,808 6,792 6,800 8 285 397
Jan-21 6,804 6,836 6,750 6,798 6,830 6,792 -38 760,418 600,080
Mar-21 6,792 6,816 6,724 6,768 6,800 6,762 -38 19,208 6,318
May-21 6,660 6,680 6,600 6,648 6,674 6,640 -34 58,254 188,590
Jul-21 6,620 6,626 6,548 6,594 6,630 6,582 -48 5,954 5,730
Aug-21 – – – 6,596 6,596 6,596 0 0 12
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322