About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Sep 8
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE. SOURCE:
USDA, FGIS
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 03, 2020
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 09/03/2020 08/27/2020 09/05/2019 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 1,996 1,270 0 5,727 2,987
CORN 781,838 423,765 612,065 234,122 472,010
FLAXSEED 72 0 0 389 48
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 48 100 0 948 299
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 96 162,996 34,549 96 33,542
SOYBEANS 1,295,462 808,656 977,914 465,262 573,467
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 695,741 534,135 413,606 7,458,381 7,012,037
Total 2,775,253 1,930,922 2,038,134 8,164,925 8,094,390

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 9
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep. 10, 2020 39 Sep 04, 2020
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep. 10, 2020 453 Aug 27, 2020
CORN September Sep. 10, 2020 207 Aug 31, 2020
SOYBEAN September Sep. 10, 2020 15 Aug 25, 2020
WHEAT September Sep. 10, 2020 7 Aug 28, 2020

Crop Progress
Date 6-Sep 30-Aug 2019 Avg
Cotton Setting Bolls 96 93 98 97
Cotton Bolls Opening 37 24 41 34
Corn Dough 97 94 87 94
Corn Dented 79 63 51 71
Corn Mature 25 12 10 19
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 20 8 7 16
Sorghum Mature twenty nine 24 28 33
Sorghum Harvested twenty one 22 23
Rice Harvested 26 20 27 35
Oats Harvested 96 91 88 94
Spring Wheat Harvested 62 69 66 87
Barley Harvested 85 74 79 90
Winter Wheat Planted 5 1 3

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 11 16 28 36 9
Cotton Last Week 15 13 28 35 9
Cotton Last Year 3 13 39 37 6

Corn This Week 5 9 25 46 15
Corn Last Week 5 9 24 48 14
Corn Last Year 4 10 31 49 10

Soybeans This Week 3 7 25 52 13
Soybeans Last Week 3 7 24 53 13
Soybeans Last Year 1 9 33 45 10

Sorghum This Week 6 11 34 17 12
Sorghum Last Week 6 12 32 39 11
Sorghum Last Year 1 5 26 33 15

Rice This Week 1 3 18 61 17
Rice Last Week 1 3 20 58 17
Rice Last Year 1 5 25 45 23

Peanuts This Week 1 4 21 60 13
Peanuts Last Week 1 4 19 62 14
Peanuts Last Year 2 6 28 55 9

Pastures and Ranges This Week 19 27 32 20 2
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 19 28 32 19 3
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 6 14 29 43 8

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2020 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Friday.
U.S. 2020 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA August USDA 2019
Corn Production 14,833 14,625-15,095 15,278 13,617
Soybean Production 4,286 4,192-4,391 4,425 3,552
Corn Yield 177.7 174.8-181.0 181.8 167.4
Soybean Yield 51.6 50.5-52.9 53.3 47.4
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Production Yield
Allendale 14,890 178.3 4,311 51.9
DC Analysis 14,757 177.8 4,291 51.7
Doane 14,820 177.5 4,360 52.5
EDF Man 14,987 181.0 4,316 52.0
Futures Intl 14,838 177.7 4,316 52.2
Grain Cycles 14,759 176.5 4,217 50.8
Hueber Report 14,917 177.6 4,267 51.4
Kapco Futures 14,734 175.4 4,358 52.5
Linn Group 14,625 176.6 4,250 51.2
Sid Love Consulting 14,774 178.0 4,331 52.5
Midland Research 14,875 177.7 4,275 51.5
Midwest Market Solutions 14,972 178.2 4,310 51.9
Northstar 14,876 177.1 4,351 51.8
Prime Ag 14,816 178.5 4,200 50.6
RJOBrien 14,677 174.8 4,237 51.0
RMC 14,738 176.5 4,192 50.5
StoneX Group 14,997 179.6 4,391 52.9
US Commodities 14,768 179.0 4,223 51.0
Vantage RM 15,095 179.7 4,250 51.2
Western Milling 14,784 176.0 4,262 51.6
Zaner Ag Hedge 14,803 179.0 4,307 51.9

DJ U.S. September Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2019-20 and 2020-21, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2019-20
Average Range USDA August
Corn 2,271 2,128-2,756 2,228
Soybeans 605 561-664 615
2020-21
Average Range USDA August
Corn 2,439 2,152-2,697 2,756
Soybeans 461 379-576 610
Wheat 926 900-948 925
2019-20 2020-21
Corn Soybeans Corn Soybeans Wheat
Allendale 2,210 578 2,527 379 926
DC Analysis 2,243 600 2,400 461 925
Doane 2,245 580 2,495 450 925
EDF Man 2,228 615 2,390 481 925
Futures Intl 2,326 574 2,589 540 900
Grain Cycles 2,218 620 2,527 407 925
Hueber 2,230 613 2,395 452 925
Kapco Futures 2,177 543
Linn Group 2,150 600 2,356 400 935
Sid Love Consulting 2,128 608 2,152 529 931
Midland Research 2,258 605 2,558 450 935
Midwest Market Solutions 2,268 620 2,665 542 945
Northstar 2,240 600 2,416 495 925
Prime Ag 2,228 615 2,290 390 925
RJOBrien 2,338 561 2,225 383 917
RMC 2,756 610 2,325 395 925
StoneX Group 2,203 600 2,524 576 948
US Commodities 2,303 620 2,546 413 925
Vantage RM 2,228 615 2,498 420 925
Western Milling 2,343 664 2,697 498 935
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,268 605 2,468 472 900

DJ September World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2019-20 and 2020-21, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2019-20
Average Range USDA August
Corn 311.7 309.1-317.5 311.3
Soybeans 95.6 94.0-96.5 95.9
Wheat 302.8 299.0-316.8 300.9
2020-21
Average Range USDA August
Corn 310.4 304.0-317.0 317.5
Soybeans 93.2 89.5-100.0 95.4
Wheat 316.1 313.1-319.0 316.8
2019-20 2020-21
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Allendale 311.2 95.6 300.9 314.4 92.4 316.6
EDF Man 311.0 96.0 300.9 307.0 92.0 316.0
Futures Intl 314.3 94.0 310.0 91.0 314.5
Grain Cycles 311.0 96.0 301.0 309.0 89.5 317.5
Hueber Report 311.0 95.5 301.0 308.0 91.0 315.0
Linn Group 305.0 93.0 319.0
Midwest Market Solutions 311.4 95.5 300.5 317.0 95.5 316.9
Northstar 310.0 95.2 300.9 304.0 92.5 317.0
Prime Ag 311.0 95.0 300.0 307.0 91.0 316.0
RMC 317.5 95.4 316.8 308.0 90.0 316.0
StoneX Group 309.1 96.1 309.1 309.2 100.0 313.1
US Commodities 311.3 96.5 299.0 317.0 96.0 317.0
Western Milling 312.0 96.0 300.9 315.0 97.0 317.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 314.4 93.8 313.9

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower in response to the stronger US Dollar and strong production estimates from ABRES in Australia. Australian production could be about 28 million tons this year, a huge increase from the 15 million tons produced a year ago. The market is still reacting to which way Wheat prices are going here and overseas. Black Sea prices have been firming in the last couple of weeks. The Russian farmer is not selling to exporters as they can get better prices internally. Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions in both the US and Canada. However, a frost is forecast for these areas this week and some light damage is possible to some crops. Harvest has expanded and yield reports are solid in the northern Plains. It is still dry in France and Russia.. Australia remains in good condition and is getting beneficial rains. About half of the Argentine Wheat belt is too dry and wire reports indicate that production in the worst areas could be 50% of normal.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 530, 509, and 504 December. Support is at 543, 542, and 539 December, with resistance at 551, 560, and 570 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 450 and 429 December. Support is at 465, 463, and 457 December, with resistance at 477, 482, and 490 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 535, 533, and 530 December, and resistance is at 545, 549, and 554 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher again yesterday. The market is looking for Rice and is not finding much selling interest from producers. New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year. The area is larger and the growing conditions are mostly good. The crops are called in good condition in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Texas and southern Louisiana field yield reports are strong. Quality is called average to above average. Brazil is reported to have bought a couple of cargoes of Rice late last week as it has run short. The fact that Brazil is buying from the US means that competition for sales in the Western Hemisphere will be significantly less this year and should support somewhat higher prices for US Rice and futures markets.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1231 1220, and 1204 November, with resistance at 1254, 1260, and 1267 November.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Sep 9
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.00 10.85 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.69 11.23 0.00
Brokens 10.78 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher on fund buying. The demand continues as unknown destinations bought 101,500 tons of US Corn over the weekend. The rains seen over the weekend were beneficial and more are coming. It is much cooler in the Midwest now and a frost is possible in northern Minnesota and northern North Dakota. Demand has also been strong with a lot of Chinese buying. China has bought a lot of US Corn lately to fulfill short domestic production. China has also been offering Corn out of state reserves to try to keep the market supplied and has apparently succeeded as demand for the domestic Corn has tailed off in thee latest round of offers. The US harvest is getting ready to start and there will be less production than had been estimated earlier by the trade. The production should still be enough to add to ending stocks even with the strong Chinese demand. The current higher prices might not last much longer and a move back down into harvest lows is probable.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 365, 367, and 374 December. Support is at 359, 354, and 348 December, and resistance is at 363, 364, and 371 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 263 December. Support is at 261, 260, and 255 December, and resistance is at 274, 279, and 282 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher, but Soybean Meal was lower. Soybeans made new highs for the move and Soybean Oil is locked in a range. Rains and cooler temperatures were seen in the Midwest starting on Sunday and should continue through the balance of this week. The change in the weather pattern should help the Soybeans on their way to maturity. The production totals are expected to be big, although not as large as the original forecasts made by private analysts. The weather will start to lose its bullish influence on prices in the next few weeks and the harvesters get ready to roll. Demand from China has held strong but might be about to end. China is now booking Soybeans into dates that are close to the first shipping dates from Brazil and will no doubt start to look to the south for additional supplies. Prices for new crop Soybeans are cheaper in Brazil.
Overnight News: USDA said that 238,000 tons of US Soybeans were sold to China and 132,000 tons of US Soybeans were sold to unknown destinations.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 959, 957, and 942 November, and resistance is at 980, 986, and 992 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 3215.00 and 322.00 October. Support is at 308.00, 306.00, and 302.00 October, and resistance is at 313.00, 315.00, and 318.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3260, 3200, and 3180 October, with resistance at 3390, 3430, and 3460 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher last week on the back of rallies in Chicago and Dalian Soybean Oil. It was lower on Monday but higher today. Demand reports from the private surveyors were down and this is becoming a bigger problem for higher prices. Production ideas are down as workers for the plantations are harder to find, but the market appears to have priced itself out of the demand base. Flooding and a lack of workers for the plantations have been the reasons to see less production in Malaysia. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola was higher as a freeze is in the forecast and could threaten some crops. Canola closed higher on a weaker Canadian Dollar. Crop conditions are mostly good and farmers have been selling old crop supplies. The weather has been warm and most areas have seen rain. It will turn colder this week and some of the Prairie provinces will see a frost or light freeze. The cold air even is not expected to hurt Canola all that much.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 521.00 November. Support is at 508.00, 502.00, and 501.00 November, with resistance at 515.00, 518.00, and 521.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2950 and 3140 November. Support is at 2810, 2760, and 2700 November, with resistance at 2900, 2920, and 2940 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and storms in all areas today. Temperatures should average elow normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September +46 Dec +141 Dec +65 Sep +75 Nov +15 Dec N/A
October +49 Dec +65 Dec +71 Nov
November +59 Dec +65 Dec +76 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 8
WINNIPEG, Sept. 8 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 467.60 -36.00 Nov 2020 unchanged
Basis: Thunder Bay 515.70 12.00 Nov 2020 unchanged
Basis: Vancouver 528.70 25.00 Nov 2020 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 732.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 710.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 684.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 670.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 735.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 712.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 687.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 672.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 735.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 660.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 2,920.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sept 190.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1700)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 181,316 lots, or 8.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 4,705 4,705 4,705 4,705 4,711 4,705 -6 20 989
Nov-20 4,424 4,471 4,403 4,426 4,458 4,427 -31 486 2,146
Jan-21 4,460 4,502 4,431 4,462 4,483 4,462 -21 174,219 129,482
Mar-21 4,454 4,510 4,453 4,475 4,496 4,473 -23 717 2,841
May-21 4,508 4,546 4,495 4,524 4,515 4,516 1 4,767 7,482
Jul-21 4,530 4,566 4,508 4,522 4,530 4,532 2 1,107 1,097
Corn
Turnover: 830,812 lots, or 19.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 – – – 2,261 2,261 2,261 0 0 312
Nov-20 2,309 2,316 2,293 2,305 2,305 2,305 0 56,873 27,367
Jan-21 2,330 2,344 2,322 2,335 2,335 2,333 -2 596,355 1,281,355
Mar-21 2,356 2,370 2,348 2,359 2,361 2,359 -2 20,550 26,086
May-21 2,380 2,391 2,369 2,381 2,382 2,380 -2 108,134 470,467
Jul-21 2,405 2,417 2,393 2,407 2,407 2,407 0 48,900 76,144
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,333,792 lots, or 39.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 2,930 2,930 2,930 2,930 2,947 2,930 -17 10 471
Nov-20 2,957 2,977 2,942 2,965 2,974 2,962 -12 57,766 64,326
Dec-20 2,960 2,981 2,949 2,971 2,984 2,968 -16 2,427 2,026
Jan-21 2,972 2,993 2,960 2,978 2,996 2,977 -19 992,777 1,360,592
Mar-21 2,890 2,892 2,869 2,881 2,897 2,882 -15 10,582 15,706
May-21 2,842 2,853 2,833 2,843 2,862 2,843 -19 233,352 779,755
Jul-21 2,857 2,870 2,850 2,861 2,879 2,862 -17 31,957 14,963
Aug-21 2,904 2,916 2,890 2,905 2,917 2,904 -13 4,921 5,373
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,110,488 lots, or 65.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 – – – 6,488 6,512 6,488 -24 0 25
Oct-20 6,136 6,136 6,018 6,018 6,136 6,114 -22 369 1,640
Nov-20 6,028 6,062 5,960 5,976 6,018 6,018 0 9,605 4,839
Dec-20 5,942 5,958 5,880 5,880 5,938 5,932 -6 358 707
Jan-21 5,920 5,954 5,842 5,862 5,920 5,896 -24 974,821 402,289
Feb-21 5,886 5,922 5,816 5,830 5,898 5,870 -28 83,540 13,551
Mar-21 5,860 5,910 5,818 5,832 5,882 5,852 -30 9,719 2,325
Apr-21 – – – 5,778 5,778 5,778 0 0 152
May-21 5,802 5,840 5,750 5,764 5,812 5,790 -22 32,073 60,370
Jun-21 – – – 5,758 5,758 5,758 0 0 1
Jul-21 5,814 5,814 5,730 5,780 5,770 5,774 4 3 5
Aug-21 – – – 5,856 5,852 5,856 4 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,010,856 lots, or 68.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 6,752 6,796 6,752 6,796 6,870 6,776 -94 3 1,366
Nov-20 6,856 6,856 6,740 6,778 6,846 6,802 -44 17,939 6,094
Dec-20 6,782 6,824 6,746 6,798 6,782 6,792 10 180 550
Jan-21 6,852 6,878 6,766 6,802 6,872 6,830 -42 881,722 611,080
Mar-21 6,816 6,848 6,736 6,764 6,814 6,800 -14 18,079 6,064
May-21 6,690 6,722 6,620 6,660 6,712 6,674 -38 84,931 187,704
Jul-21 6,622 6,668 6,572 6,610 6,626 6,630 4 7,978 5,477
Aug-21 6,648 6,648 6,556 6,606 6,656 6,596 -60 24 12
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322