About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed a little higher on follow through buying. Prices made an early run to challenge recent highs, but failed to move into new high ground. Futures are still reacting in part to the adverse weather in western Texas. Demand has improved over the last couple of weeks but remains at depressed levels. The charts show potential for futures to trade close to 68.00 in the next couple of weeks. It will be hard to get there unless demand supports. The supply losses are in the market now. However, the Harvest is still a ways down the road and the tropical season is active. There will be more chances to inflict more damage on the crops to help try to rally prices.
Overnight News: The Delta will get some scattered showers and Southeast will get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will have isolated showers this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 59.37 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 6,465 bales, from 6,465 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6460, 6400, and 6330 December, with resistance of 6640, 6680 and 6730 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower and made new lows for the move. The market is backing off as no hurricanes have hit Florida yet. The systems have all gone south into the Gulf of Mexico or north into the Carolina’s. The Coronavirus is still promoting consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and food service demand has been much less as no one is really dining out. Florida production prospects for the new crop were hurt by an extended flowering period, but the weather is good now with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Import demand to the US should be minimal as US prices remain below those of Europe. Brazil has been too dry and irrigation is being used. Some showers are in the region now to help in Sao Paulo.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 373 notices were posted against September contracts for delivery and that deliveries for the month are now 273 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 110.00, 104.00, and 100.00 November, with resistance at 116.00, 119.00, and 122.00 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher in both markets. London continues to lead New York higher London has been the leader on the rally as demand for Robusta has improved with people staying at home. Chart trends remain up. Vietnam was dry during flowering time and is dry again. Production ideas are lower. Demand remains down. The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is still at very low levels. Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home and the return of the Coronavirus outbreak will keep things that way. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. Europe is emerging from lock downs. The Brazil harvest is almost over but shipping has become difficult due to the widespread outbreak of the Coronavirus there. Even so, the ports are operating normally. Ideas are that production will be very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. The strong production ideas are coming despite hot and dry weather seen in the country at flowering time.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are a little lower today at 1.231 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 123.29 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers. ICE said that 3 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 447 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 135.00 December. Support is at 129.00, 127.00, and 125.00 December, and resistance is at 135.00, 138.00 and 142.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1490 November. Support is at 1430, 14090, and 1380 November, and resistance is at 1490, 1510, and 1530 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were both a little higher, but held the short term trading range. Chart trends are sideways in both markets. CONAB noted in its most recent report that Brazilian mills are producing more Sugar and less Ethanol this year due to reduced Ethanol demand. Ideas are that there is plenty of Sugar for the world market. India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult due to Coronavirus lock downs. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There are reduced flows from rivers from China to hinder irrigation of the crops.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1320, 1300, and 1290 March, and resistance is at 1350, 1380, and 1410 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 365.00, 356.00, and 355.00 December, and resistance is at 370.00, 377.00, and 382.00 December.

DJ Sugar Falls After ISO Predicts Almost Balanced Market — Market Talk
0929 GMT – Sugar prices are lower after the International Sugar Organization scrapped its forecasts that the 2019-20 season would see the largest global sugar market deficit in 11 years. The ISO had been forecasting in May that the current sugar market year which ends in October would see a deficit of 9.298 million metric tons, but it cut that estimate to a statistically small deficit of 136,000 tons. “The global balance has consequently moved from being the biggest deficit in 11 years to neutral, ” the ISO says. Raw sugar futures are down 0.9% at 12.50 U.S. cents per pound. The ISO did, however, forecast that the 2020-21 season would see a deficit of 724,000 tons, contrary to most analysts’ expectations of a large surplus. (william.horner@wsj.com)

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher. The charts show that both markets turned trends up last week and New York made new highs for the move again yesterday. Futures might be overbought now. The current crop features strong production but there are worries about the next crop. Nigerian traders told the wire services that the Nigerian harvest will be delayed by at least a month due to dry weather keeping the pods and beans small and keeping the pods from developing normally. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US. Europe is still trying to open its markets again but the Coronavirus is still around and consumers are reluctant to buy. Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.
Overnight News: Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.776 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery today against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 853 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2690, 2750, and 2900 December. Support is at 2630, 2570, and 2500 December, with resistance at 2720, 2760, and 2800 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1790 and 1850 December. Support is at 1760, 1730, and 1700 December, with resistance at 1800, 1820, and 1850 December.

DJ ICCO Revises Cocoa Demand Outlook Lower — Market Talk
1238 ET – The International Cocoa Organization says that it expects demand for cocoa grindings globally to drop from previously expected levels — outpacing declines in world production. In its latest supply and demand report, the ICCO projects world cocoa grindings at 4.64 million metric tons in the 2019/20 marketing year. That’s down 148,000 tons from the ICCO’s previous projection. The group also shrunk its outlook for world cocoa production, but only by 26,000 tons — meaning that the ICCO expects supplies of cocoa to build up globally. Cocoa futures trading on the Intercontinental Exchange have been on a roll in recent days, rising 7% to $2,651 per metric ton in the past three trading sessions alone. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322